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Full Version: LOL@ the Calzaghe-Hopkins odds....
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TarverFan
Hopkins at +235? Are you kidding me? I think Calzaghe should MAYBE be slightly favored but +235, Hopkins presents monsterous value.
Southeastpaw
Not that crazy. Calzaghe will be the favorite come fight time. I actually expect him to be a heavy favorite. Would you be comfortable putting money down on Hopkins with those odds? Hopkins has surprised me before, but Joe has everything on his side going into this fight.
TarverFan
I would be very comfortable betting Hopkins getting $2.35 for every dollar I bet. Those are silly odds.
Southeastpaw
QUOTE(TarverFan @ Jan 12 2008, 03:26 AM) [snapback]374456[/snapback]
I would be very comfortable betting Hopkins getting $2.35 for every dollar I bet. Those are silly odds.

Do you believe that Hopkins will truly win this fight?
ryguy jones jr
hopkins will win

easy money
TarverFan
Doesn't completely matter if I think Hopkins wins. Like I said, I would make Calzaghe a small favorite. +235 is giving Hopkins only about a 30% chance of winning though. I see this fight 55-45 for Calzaghe so IMO, it presents great value. It's not like this fight is going to be in Britain.
Method
Yeah, thats a good value. Should it widen even more, all the better, and it may. I would start laying on those odds now, because as the fight is signed, and Hopkins is showcased more in the press and interviewed and open workouts etc. etc., he has the ability to win people over, despite whether he delivers on all the talk, and the odds may tighten up. If they tighten up to anywhere close to even, money on Calzaghe is a good deal. But if they stay as they are or widen, Ex is a great value.
JD
Hop opened significantly lower...the odds jumped rather quickly.
salvador
At +235 I've got Hopkins all day. Obviously Joe should be the favorite simply due to his workrate, but +235 is absurd.

I've been unhappy with Betus.com because they never really have anything other than straight bets. Could anyone recommend a good betting site?
Method
5Dimes.com has a really great boxing platform, man. They have ALL the fights and you can drum all all sorts of exotics, etc. One of the most expansive boxing gambling platforms I've seen (or heard of). I generally use Sportsbook.com, though, as they're my default for sports in general. Boxingwise, they're not as broad as 5 dimes, but they are solid all around, and carry all the shit I need for Boxing. That said, it never hurts to have a 5Dimes account if you want to string together an exotic parlay of a few fights over the course of months because they have that capability and the payouts are nice.
salvador
thanks
TarverFan
BetUS=Bad reputation be carefull there. Sportsbook has a crap reputation to but I have never had any problems getting withdraws from there (then again it don't hurt I have a good friend who works there if need be). The best places are 5dimes (as mentioned), thegreek,bookmaker and sportsbook. Bookmaker more for MMA than boxing.

1 thing that makes 5dimes much better than sportsbook is you can parlay both who you think will win and the over/under. With sbook you can only parlay who you think will win the fight.
moscow bear
QUOTE(Method @ Jan 12 2008, 04:57 PM) [snapback]374490[/snapback]
5Dimes.com has a really great boxing platform, man. They have ALL the fights and you can drum all all sorts of exotics, etc. One of the most expansive boxing gambling platforms I've seen (or heard of). I generally use Sportsbook.com, though, as they're my default for sports in general. Boxingwise, they're not as broad as 5 dimes, but they are solid all around, and carry all the shit I need for Boxing. That said, it never hurts to have a 5Dimes account if you want to string together an exotic parlay of a few fights over the course of months because they have that capability and the payouts are nice.


yeah, I use 5dimes and the european bwin cos sometimes they offer much better odds.

going back to hops-cal, i honestly think that 1.37 (5dimes) on the over (11.5) is FREE MONEY as JD would say. The only way I see it not going the distnce is Cal being cut by a headbutt.
streetlion1
Smart $$$ on B-Hop!! Calzaghe will end up fustrated,bloody, and all roughed up by nights end. U.D. for Hopkins because of his inside counter rights and tye-u-up style. This may come down to who the ref is and whether he'll let B-Hop fight the way he wants...God I hope its not Joe Cortez!! Calzaghe will end up hurt in this fight and made to look average.
STEVENSKI
QUOTE(ryguy jones jr @ Jan 12 2008, 08:37 AM) [snapback]374463[/snapback]
hopkins will win

easy money



Based on what exactly?

Stamina?
Age?
Workrate?
Combination punching?
Activity?
Method
The best ref for Hopkins is Smoger, but he'll never get him on the Left Coast. He neds to stay away from Cortez, Nady. MUST stay away from those two. Those two are like two chaperones at an 8th grade dance...ESPECIALLY "Big Bozo No No" Nady, but Cortez didn't win any popularity contests for his job with Hatton/Money May
STEVENSKI
Meth it's actually Jay "Fights Over" Nady.
Southeastpaw
Jay "Got Choked Out" Nady
BoxingStill#1
lol..
salvador
QUOTE(Method @ Jan 14 2008, 05:15 PM) [snapback]374770[/snapback]
The best ref for Hopkins is Smoger, but he'll never get him on the Left Coast. He neds to stay away from Cortez, Nady. MUST stay away from those two. Those two are like two chaperones at an 8th grade dance...ESPECIALLY "Big Bozo No No" Nady, but Cortez didn't win any popularity contests for his job with Hatton/Money May


I just rewatched Jones-Ruiz, which is running "On Demand" this week and I'd forgotten how overzealous Nady was. Ruiz was damn right to complain about Nady's officiating in that fight because it was totally one-sided and unfair. Obviously Ruiz's reputation preceeded him into that fight and Nady overreacted. It's very easy to imagine the same thing happening to Bernard.


TarverFan
Marquez at +175 is a pretty nice bet as well. Hopefully it gets even higher.
Method
I got a $1,500 check from Sportsbook a week ago (it took ~ 3 weeks, but it came....cleared too...lol).

I took Hops straight up at +235, and also got a Pavlik (over Taylor)/Hops (over Calzaghe) parlay that would be nice.

Maybe I will do something with this weekend's fight and Joe (as a hedge). Who knows.

I really like Hopkins in this fight.

Will admit though, watched replays of Joe vs Lacy and Hops vs Winky last weekend, and I wasn;'t so sure, but you have to remember that styles make fights. Hopkins style is all wrong for Cal. Cal's style was all wrong for that muscle bound puppy in Lacy (who himself already showed signs of inadequecy), and Winky well, who ever looked good against Winky...although Hops dished it out and made Wink miss a LOT.

Will def be interesting. I just think that Hops has the advantage in every aspect of the science except for handspeed...which can be offset w timing.

We'll see.
BrutalBodyShots
I agree that Hopkins +200-whatever is very attractive... but I'm not at ALL comfortable picking Hopkins to beat Calzaghe.

Remember that odds are meaningless unless the man actually wins... so whether Hopkins is +200 or +500 doesn't really change my view that he simply won't be awarded enough rounds to win the fight against Calzaghe in my view. I mean there's always a chance that the judges give Hopkins the benefit of the doubt in some close rounds, but we've seen hopkins get dicked before.

TarverFan
Odds are never meaningless. In fact that's what's wrong with a lot of people. They will bet stuff even if the odds get worse. The JMM-Pacquiao fight is a perfect example. Pac started around -130 if I remember right. The fight gets bet clear up to -210 now by people taking numbers a lot worse than -130. Gambling is all a numbers and percentages game. people who don't get that, lose long term.
Tha Docta
QUOTE(TarverFan @ Mar 13 2008, 01:43 AM) [snapback]382221[/snapback]
Odds are never meaningless. In fact that's what's wrong with a lot of people. They will bet stuff even if the odds get worse. The JMM-Pacquiao fight is a perfect example. Pac started around -130 if I remember right. The fight gets bet clear up to -210 now by people taking numbers a lot worse than -130. Gambling is all a numbers and percentages game. people who don't get that, lose long term.


How can anyone take you seriously with a name like "TarverFan"?? my god that has to be the worst name on this entire message board. That is until someone comes on here with the name "SmokeGainerfan".
streetlion1
I hope im not the only one who sees Bernard beating Joe easily! Calzaghe wont be stepping in there with a Kessler or a Lacy..he'll be stepping in there with one of the best defender/counterpunchers in the game today! Not to put Cal in the same category as Hatton because I do believe Cal is more skilled but just think of that fight...an over-rated British fighter who hasnt fought anybody coming across to fight the best and getting exposed for what he really is. No quick little slap-you-up combos and no stealing rounds because of his work-rate..Bernard always makes his opponent fight his fight and this one will be no different Calzaghe is gonna get hurt...perhaps K.O.ed in the process!
Tha Docta
has hopkins even had a ko since delahoya?? Joe can bounce around all night and he throws a ton of punches. I think the workrate and Joes unorthodox style will give hopkins trouble.

since when is kessler not a good fighter? lacy hasnt been the same since he got slapped around by calzaghe. I actually think kessler is better than any fighter hopkins has faced in a while. I would pick kessler to beat hopkins as well at this point in hopkins career.
streetlion1
QUOTE(Tha Docta @ Mar 13 2008, 09:45 AM) [snapback]382263[/snapback]
has hopkins even had a ko since delahoya?? Joe can bounce around all night and he throws a ton of punches. I think the workrate and Joes unorthodox style will give hopkins trouble.

since when is kessler not a good fighter? lacy hasnt been the same since he got slapped around by calzaghe. I actually think kessler is better than any fighter hopkins has faced in a while. I would pick kessler to beat hopkins as well at this point in hopkins career.

No way! Are you kidding me? I would put Winky ahead of anyone Kessler or Calzaghe has fought. I would even pick Tarver to beat Kessler. Calzaghe is not gonna keep up that work rate once he starts catching counters and being tied up and roughed up on the inside. Also besides PBF Hopkins is boxings best defender with an iron chin to match. I understand Joes style makes people think he will give Hopkins trouble but this is Hopkins! He is light years ahead of anyone Joe has fought! Easy win for B-Hop.
Method
QUOTE
since when is kessler not a good fighter? lacy hasnt been the same since he got slapped around by calzaghe.


Shit, Lacy looked like the same Lacy that foguht at the Playboy Mansion as he did when he fought Pemberton as he did when he fought Calzaghe as he did when he fought Manfredo.

Calzaghe was showing cracks before Joe. The same as David Reid was showing cracks before Trinidad.

Lacy had problems with Richard "The Alien" Grant at the Mansion, and Scotty Pemberton had Lacy on Queer St...BEFORE Lacy fought Joe Cal.
Tha Docta
QUOTE(streetlion1 @ Mar 13 2008, 10:57 AM) [snapback]382269[/snapback]
No way! Are you kidding me? I would put Winky ahead of anyone Kessler or Calzaghe has fought. I would even pick Tarver to beat Kessler. Calzaghe is not gonna keep up that work rate once he starts catching counters and being tied up and roughed up on the inside. Also besides PBF Hopkins is boxings best defender with an iron chin to match. I understand Joes style makes people think he will give Hopkins trouble but this is Hopkins! He is light years ahead of anyone Joe has fought! Easy win for B-Hop.



why would joe calzaghe be an easy win for hopkins when someone even less skilled (taylor) gave him fits? I wouldnt pick tarver over kessler, and winky looked absolutely horrible with that extra weight when he faced hopkins.
Method
Fits? 85% of Ringside had Hopkins by 2 rounds or MORE...and he was barely touched....never hit cleanly.

streetlion1
QUOTE(Tha Docta @ Mar 13 2008, 11:38 AM) [snapback]382285[/snapback]
why would joe calzaghe be an easy win for hopkins when someone even less skilled (taylor) gave him fits? I wouldnt pick tarver over kessler, and winky looked absolutely horrible with that extra weight when he faced hopkins.

Taylor is less skilled but has power which B-Hop was probably a little wary of....Calzaghe doesnt have that power. Also Winky looked horrible facing Hopkins but most everyone has facing B-Hop. Joe to me hasnt fought good enough competition to make me say he will give Hopkins fits..if a workrate is all he has..B-Hop can nullify that very quick with a few hard counters to make him settle down. which no-one else has been able to do because no-one else he fought had the skill of Hopkins. I see Joe being in it for maybe 4-5 rounds.
D-MARV
Hatton Mayweather II

Bhop 11TKO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Method
He can also nullify the work rate by moving. Circling. Exactly like he did against Wright. Just keep circling. On your toes all night. As soon as Hopkins back touches the ropes, he springs off in a circling direction...cat-like. Joe's work rate is ver impressive, very steady over 12 rounds. Hopkins can't play the "Let him throw a few rounds and tire himself out for the home stretch" because Joe doesn't tire. That said, Joe hasn't faced anyone with the movement, footwork tha tHopkins possesses, let alone the infighting and mauling skills.

It should be very interesting. Especially if Hopkins can open a cut up on Joe. You know how those conventional vs South paws tend to clash a lot... ;-)
Mean Mister Mustard
I don't think it will be Cortez and if it is this may benefit Hopkins. After all, Hopkins was able to manipulate Cortez back in 2004 in the Allen rubbermatch. Plus Cortez might not allow clinches but he does allow elbows to the opponents face.
Method
Cortez might not be good for Ex. Hops trashed the PR Flag...yeah, we already know that and that Cortez is PR'n or Latin ro whatever....and we already know how well Hops played Cortez going into Allen III, and a lot of boxing scribes wrote about how well Cortez was played after the fight. Now Hops has this retarded racist issue that people making a bigger deal of than is...if I were Team Hopkins I would steer clear of Cortez and Nady. Go the route of Bayless or someone who plays the back.

Nady is ALL WRONG, and Cortez, f him...he did HORRIBLE for Floyd/Hatton. Keep those two out of the mix.

I vote for a Kenny...or import Smoger. If there was EVER a ref suited for Hopkins, it is Steve Smoger. I know, I know, he's East Coast...but make it happen.
TarverFan
QUOTE(Tha Docta @ Mar 13 2008, 09:34 AM) [snapback]382240[/snapback]
How can anyone take you seriously with a name like "TarverFan"?? my god that has to be the worst name on this entire message board. That is until someone comes on here with the name "SmokeGainerfan".


How can I take you seriously when you can't even spell "the doctor" right? Regardless, I don't give a shit about usernames, just if that person posts anything worth reading. So far you fail.
streetlion1
QUOTE(Method @ Mar 13 2008, 02:56 PM) [snapback]382311[/snapback]
Cortez might not be good for Ex. Hops trashed the PR Flag...yeah, we already know that and that Cortez is PR'n or Latin ro whatever....and we already know how well Hops played Cortez going into Allen III, and a lot of boxing scribes wrote about how well Cortez was played after the fight. Now Hops has this retarded racist issue that people making a bigger deal of than is...if I were Team Hopkins I would steer clear of Cortez and Nady. Go the route of Bayless or someone who plays the back.

Nady is ALL WRONG, and Cortez, f him...he did HORRIBLE for Floyd/Hatton. Keep those two out of the mix.

I vote for a Kenny...or import Smoger. If there was EVER a ref suited for Hopkins, it is Steve Smoger. I know, I know, he's East Coast...but make it happen.

I agree lets hope for Smoger..he is by far my favorite ref...a fighters referee who stands back and lets the guys fight.
PR316
Team Hopkins would definitely do well to go for a referee who will let him fight inside and do his thing. Joe Cortez is NOT it and I don't even think the whole Puerto Rican flag incident is the reason(Though that might be a factor). Cortez is notorious for stepping in too quickly and not allowing the guys to fight inside.


Nady is a very good referee IMO even though he's had "moments" where he's been shaky and all. But he too will not allow the guys to fight inside.


Smoger would be good.


I've thought about the fight some more, and while I still think Calzaghe will be too fast for the old man, I'm thinking now it will be more competitive. I think what will fail Hopkins in the end is that he won't dish out enough punishment. I think he'll succeed in not taking a beating and he will probably land the better quality punches. But I just see Calzaghe landing more punches, and staying outside in the center of the ring, avoiding a trench battle. Calzaghe can fight inside better than guys like Tarver, Taylor, and Wright, but thats Hopkins best bet right there, where he can land right uppercuts. I think Joe will look to make his hand speed and athleticism the big factor by keeping on the back foot, the way he did against Lacy where he often clinched on the inside and did his work from the outside.
AussieLad
People dont give hopkins much credit for beating oscar, and why should they when it was a huge hopkins beating up on a little guy. So why should hopkins get so much credit for beating winky, when wink was fighting well outside his optimal weight ???

Hopkins couldnt impose his will on Taylor, when a much more limited and overhyped pavlik was able to do it. He is not going to impose his will on calzaghe either

Calzaghe by UD

Method
If you'e gonna cry that Winky was fighting well outside his optimal weight, when he has to lose MORE weight than Hopkins to make 160-175, then it could also be argued that Hopkins was fighting well outside his optima weight as well. He only had one fight above 160 recently (Tarver). It's not like he was campaigning at 175 for a while. Winkm chose to eat Krispyt Kreme's. Fuck that. He got what a prepared for.
AussieLad
Hopkins is the larger, older fighter. The only reason he was able to fight at 160 for so long was because he kept himself in shape and not ballooned in weight between fights. Keeping in shape between fights has maintained his longevity.

Winky being the much smaller man would have had an easier time shedding the kilo's. He would have bulked then cut weight

Simple enough for you
Method
No. NOT that simple. NOT when Winky walks around at 190-200.

Simple enough for YOU?
AussieLad
6ft 1 vs 5ft 10.... 75 inches in reach vs 72 inches in reach.... hopkins having alot more power... a large natural middleweight vs an average sized natural junior middle...

Do i have to break out some crayons and draw you a diagram
BigG
Hokins is bigger then Winky but not by much as fitz said. Winky only fought a division below Hopkins for most of his career and was considered a very strong 154 pounder..
AussieLad
By methods logic ricky hatton was the bigger man coming into the collazo fight because he porks up to be a fat cunt in between fights, when in reality its natural fighting weight and bone structure that determines the size of a fighter, not how fat he is in the off season

Wink was a decent win for hopkins, no-ones disputing it, but its still an example of bigger man getting too much credit for a win over a smaller one. Especially considering that hopkins power has increased with the move up, and winks didnt
PR316
Even though Hopkins a bit bigger, its not a HUGE size advantage. Winky's frame is pretty big. Really thick guy in the shoulders and chest area. I don't think 170 pounds was his absolute BEST WEIGHT but I think Hopkins stamina was the difference in that fight. I thought the fight was very close and competitive, pretty back and forth up to the 8th round and then from the 9th round on, Hopkins just took off on him and closed the show pretty good. Was far from Hopkins best performance, but he's not a spring chicken either. Considering that he was coming off a 1 year layoff that was pretty impressive for him to win. I don't think he looked "great" and he's lost some hand speed but he makes up for it with experience and skill. Plus nobody has really looked great against Winky.
Method
Douchebag, you have three people telling you you're argument is garbage. Stand down already.

Winky doesn't sit in beer parlors loading up on pints like Hatton. He is a ntaural 190 pounder. Period. He and Hopkins both campaigned in the middleweights.

You paint it like Hopkins has been a Lt Hvy and that he had been so established by the time he fought Wright. That's just not the case. He had one fight at 175, and then moved down to fight 170. They were basically the same size. Yeah, Hopkins may have been a couple inches taller and had a reach advantage (or not, depending on how you measure), but you act like it was David vs Goliath. Paul Williams stands how tall and has how long a reach? Go to your room with that stupid argument.
AussieLad
Hey, how many people voted for george bush... numbers doesnt make an argument any stronger

Wink got credit for his wins over mosely, but at least people had the brains to realize that mosely was outside his optimal weight.

And tarver wasnt hopkins first fight at lt heavy dumb ass.
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