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Jack 1000
Who will win the much eagerly anticipated rematch between Jermain Taylor and Kelly Pavlik?

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Jack

Administrator
Jack 1000
I am going by Pavlik by late rounds KO/TKO

Pavlik KO 8. I just think that Kelly has all of the distinct advantages going into this fight. Remember that this is an over the 160# weight limit and will be a non-title fight. There is a certain mental characteristic within a fighter that many times when he has given his very best and is still beaten, it is difficult for him to emotionally overcome the loss. Taylor was a beast that first fight. Probably the best that I have ever seen him fight, and he had to be, because Pavlik was even MORE of a beast! Kelly knows only one way to fight with a straight forward aggressive style. He forced Taylor to actually fight and give us a great fight. The only way Pavik loses this fight is if he is overconfident. I believe that he has learned from the disastrous 2nd round in the first fight, and will adjust his game plan accordingly.

Jack
caneman
pavlik in 6 rounds...maybe 5! JT's left will always drop which spells knocked the fuck out in my eyes!
Nay_Sayer
Pavlik by KO, ending JTs career in the process.

Afterwards maybe Taylor can campaign HARD for the Hopkins rubbermatch then check-out.

Stick a fork in him Gentlemen, Taylor is done!
streetlion1
This fight will end up being the same IMO minus Pavlik being knocked down. That is unless JT all of a sudden becomes a better defender. I do think this fight will last longer but in the end JT ends up staring up at the lights!
stateofthegame
What pisses me off is that I heard this is it win or lose. If Taylor loses than no trilogy, and I am hearing that if he wins he will not grant Pavlik a rematch to set up a third fight because if he wins they will look towards Roy Jones.
BrutalBodyShots
Pavlik again, probably a little sooner this time out.

rusty_trombone
I like Pavlik early. I just don't think the fight will be any different, except Pavlik will push alot harder early. JT was good enough to beat Hopkins though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled a decision out of his ass. Pavlik is such a bad matchup for him though, well I guess he's a bad matchup for anybody with that chin.
JD
Taylor will not answer the bell for the 8th.
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(rusty_trombone @ Feb 11 2008, 08:57 PM) [snapback]378172[/snapback]
I like Pavlik early. I just don't think the fight will be any different, except Pavlik will push alot harder early. JT was good enough to beat Hopkins though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled a decision out of his ass. Pavlik is such a bad matchup for him though, well I guess he's a bad matchup for anybody with that chin.


Taylor decisioned Hopkins because he was a rising star and very marketable at the time. Since then he has looked like shit against every guy he's faced, most recently getting KTFO. Stock in Taylor at this time is falling and as far as Pavlik goes it is rising... so if there were a guy to get a decision based on politics I would think Pavlik would get the close nod...

...doesn't much matter though as Taylor can't last 36 minutes on his feet. The judges might as well just stay at home for this one and watch it in HD.

caneman
QUOTE(BrutalBodyShots @ Feb 11 2008, 09:15 PM) [snapback]378178[/snapback]
Taylor decisioned Hopkins because he was a rising star and very marketable at the time. Since then he has looked like shit against every guy he's faced, most recently getting KTFO. Stock in Taylor at this time is falling and as far as Pavlik goes it is rising... so if there were a guy to get a decision based on politics I would think Pavlik would get the close nod...

...doesn't much matter though as Taylor can't last 36 minutes on his feet. The judges might as well just stay at home for this one and watch it in HD.



as true as all that may be, kelly BETTER NOT LET THIS GO TO THE SCORECARDS...JT even fools compu box thumbsdown_anim.gif
Big Slim Sweet
I'm going with Taylor by KO. I know logic says different but I've got this gut feeling JT has a big performance left in him. If he gets knocked out again he's done, and I just feel like he's not ready to be done. Taylor's got a lot of heart. I think he's going to shock people.
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(Big Slim @ Feb 11 2008, 09:39 PM) [snapback]378188[/snapback]
I'm going with Taylor by KO. I know logic says different but I've got this gut feeling JT has a big performance left in him. If he gets knocked out again he's done, and I just feel like he's not ready to be done. Taylor's got a lot of heart. I think he's going to shock people.


I don't think if he gets knocked out again "he done" I think he just done against guys that can punch. He can go back to the Wright's and Spinks' and Ouma's of the world (guys known to NOT be punchers) and probably get by on "bad decisions."

FYI the line on under 10.5 rounds is -180... a little more than half your risked money back on that pick for those that are interested. I'll probably go that route since Pavlik to win isn't much of a better line, and at least the under covers the off chance that Taylor is able to stop Pavlik early.

Big Slim Sweet
QUOTE(BrutalBodyShots @ Feb 11 2008, 10:44 PM) [snapback]378191[/snapback]
I don't think if he gets knocked out again "he done" I think he just done against guys that can punch. He can go back to the Wright's and Spinks' and Ouma's of the world (guys known to NOT be punchers) and probably get by on "bad decisions."

He can keep fighting of course, but his credibility as a top guy will be gone. Plus he'd have to fight on Showtime. Eww.
rusty_trombone
QUOTE(Big Slim @ Feb 11 2008, 09:39 PM) [snapback]378188[/snapback]
I'm going with Taylor by KO. I know logic says different but I've got this gut feeling JT has a big performance left in him. If he gets knocked out again he's done, and I just feel like he's not ready to be done. Taylor's got a lot of heart. I think he's going to shock people.

Nah man, I can see him winning a decision, but Pavliks chin is ridiculous. JT better have learned how to punch like a silverback if he's gonna do that.

I agree though, taylor does have alot of heart. I always thought he was good for boxing.
Hodge
QUOTE(rusty_trombone @ Feb 11 2008, 09:51 PM) [snapback]378195[/snapback]
Nah man, I can see him winning a decision, but Pavliks chin is ridiculous. JT better have learned how to punch like a silverback if he's gonna do that.

I agree though, taylor does have alot of heart. I always thought he was good for boxing.


I'm not under the impression Pavlik's chin is that inpenetrable. We saw him stumbling around the ring after Jermaine caught him. Sure, he stuck it out there, but we know that Jermaine has the power to hurt him. It's not like Kelly is a defensive wizard or anything and we know Jermaine is the better overall boxer, so anything can happen. I see Taylor playing the safety first card and ecking out a decision. I hate that it will be that way, but the signs are pointing towards this conclusion. With the Wilson/ Flores and Williams/ Quintana fights, I starting to lean more towards the guys who are more fundementally sound than the guys with the one shot eliminators. It's going to be good though, because I can see Kelly hurting Jermaine, but this time he will be able to hold a lot better.
Big Slim Sweet
QUOTE(rusty_trombone @ Feb 11 2008, 10:51 PM) [snapback]378195[/snapback]
Nah man, I can see him winning a decision, but Pavliks chin is ridiculous. JT better have learned how to punch like a silverback if he's gonna do that.

I agree with Hodge I don't think Pavlik's chin is ridiculous at all. He's definitely a tough dude who has shown more than once the ability to recover and regain focus in a fight, but he can be hurt.
caneman
QUOTE(Hodge @ Feb 12 2008, 12:21 PM) [snapback]378262[/snapback]
I'm not under the impression Pavlik's chin is that inpenetrable. We saw him stumbling around the ring after Jermaine caught him. Sure, he stuck it out there, but we know that Jermaine has the power to hurt him. It's not like Kelly is a defensive wizard or anything and we know Jermaine is the better overall boxer, so anything can happen. I see Taylor playing the safety first card and ecking out a decision. I hate that it will be that way, but the signs are pointing towards this conclusion. With the Wilson/ Flores and Williams/ Quintana fights, I starting to lean more towards the guys who are more fundementally sound than the guys with the one shot eliminators. It's going to be good though, because I can see Kelly hurting Jermaine, but this time he will be able to hold a lot better.



i think pavlik has the better overall skills but is not as "gifted" as JT. all that goes out the door when a fighter drops his hands...kelly did it to prove he had a chin, JT did it cause that is what JT does, especially the left hand. in the end that will be what cost JT & make kelly 2-0 vs bad decisions fuck.gif in less than 7 rounds i might add.
Hodge
QUOTE(caneman @ Feb 12 2008, 05:57 PM) [snapback]378289[/snapback]
i think pavlik has the better overall skills but is not as "gifted" as JT. all that goes out the door when a fighter drops his hands...kelly did it to prove he had a chin, JT did it cause that is what JT does, especially the left hand. in the end that will be what cost JT & make kelly 2-0 vs bad decisions fuck.gif in less than 7 rounds i might add.


Touche, Touche, but we can agree that Kelly can be touched. It's not going to be the same fight. IMHO Manny is almost too Pro-jab and sometimes that can debilitate a fighter such as Jermaine. He's the stronger of the two in my opinion, but Kelly hits harder. If Jermaine closes the distance, I believe he will be able to outmuscle Kelly in the clinch. It's going to be a good fight and I think Kelly is great, but I can't count out Jermaine just like I will never pick against Miguel Cotto.
caneman
not touche @ all really...no way do i think JT can beat kelly no matter what he does, barring a KO by JT. the 2 mian things for me is though....JT will alway drop that left hand & he (JT) has seemed to max out skill wise & doesn't listen to his corner. BTW JT jab is the best thing he has in my opinion. just for the record, what round did you see kelly's back on the ropes?
BrutalBodyShots
I completely disagree with your view Hodge:

QUOTE(Hodge @ Feb 12 2008, 12:21 PM) [snapback]378262[/snapback]
It's not like Kelly is a defensive wizard or anything and we know Jermaine is the better overall boxer, so anything can happen.


How do you figure that Taylor is the better overall boxer? I think Pavlik's skills are more textbook and sound. Both guys can be hit but Pavlik's jab is solid and he has a straight right that follows it nicely. Taylor leaves his jab out there too long and throws a telegraphed right behind it. I also think that Pavlik puts his punches together better.

QUOTE(Hodge @ Feb 12 2008, 12:21 PM) [snapback]378262[/snapback]
I see Taylor playing the safety first card and ecking out a decision. I hate that it will be that way, but the signs are pointing towards this conclusion.


What signs are those?

QUOTE(Hodge @ Feb 12 2008, 12:21 PM) [snapback]378262[/snapback]
With the Wilson/ Flores and Williams/ Quintana fights, I starting to lean more towards the guys who are more fundementally sound than the guys with the one shot eliminators. It's going to be good though, because I can see Kelly hurting Jermaine, but this time he will be able to hold a lot better.


Pavlik doesn't need a "1 shot eliminator" when he was landing solid right hands in every round of the fight before the final one that set up the finishing rally. If it was a 1 shot thing like Tarver over Jones or Rahman over Lewis then I'd say sure, Taylor has a good chance at winning a decision. And this time he will be able to hold better? Where did you pull that one out of?

Hodge
I completely disagree with your view Hodge:

QUOTE
How do you figure that Taylor is the better overall boxer? I think Pavlik's skills are more textbook and sound. Both guys can be hit but Pavlik's jab is solid and he has a straight right that follows it nicely. Taylor leaves his jab out there too long and throws a telegraphed right behind it. I also think that Pavlik puts his punches together better.


With what JT was able to accomplish against a lot better boxers, speaks volumes of his potential. It seems moot seeing KP scored the knockout, but I get the impression this is no longer a showcase fight. The pressure for the knockout was all on JT, because of the 4 previous fights. He is more than capable of hanging in there if he doesn't make it a slugfest.

QUOTE
What signs are those?


It's just a trend that I see lately. Big matches are just happening like that and with what just happen to Williams is really showing this. This is all gut instinct, but it seems to be a rhyme and reason to most of these things.

QUOTE
Pavlik doesn't need a "1 shot eliminator" when he was landing solid right hands in every round of the fight before the final one that set up the finishing rally. If it was a 1 shot thing like Tarver over Jones or Rahman over Lewis then I'd say sure, Taylor has a good chance at winning a decision. And this time he will be able to hold better? Where did you pull that one out of?


I don't know where I got the tying up part, but with supposedly improved conditioning it could happen. He's said he shot his load too early, so he recognizes the problem from the first fight. With the exception of sticking his chin out, Kelly is thinking this is the blueprint everytime. It can only get better for Jermaine and it is more on his terms. Youngstown is not going to be in effect as much as last time because the fight is in Vegas. I am getting the same feeling I got before the Superbowl and I was right. This all conjecture and you have brought some valid points, but the signs are pointing in the direction that I am seeing. We'll just see this weekend.
rusty_trombone
QUOTE(Fitz @ Feb 12 2008, 05:53 PM) [snapback]378287[/snapback]
I don't agree how Pavlik's chin is ridiculous either. He was hurt pretty big by Taylor who has struggled to put a dent on anyone recently. Pavlik doesn't have a china chin, but not sure if it's made out of granite either. It's probably all still up for debate.

They guy traded with Miranda, and came out alive. I think that is grounds for having an awesome chin.
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(Hodge @ Feb 13 2008, 12:38 PM) [snapback]378430[/snapback]
It's just a trend that I see lately. Big matches are just happening like that and with what just happen to Williams is really showing this. This is all gut instinct, but it seems to be a rhyme and reason to most of these things...
...I am getting the same feeling I got before the Superbowl and I was right. This all conjecture and you have brought some valid points, but the signs are pointing in the direction that I am seeing.


Wow, I certainly can't argue against any of THAT.

caneman
QUOTE(BrutalBodyShots @ Feb 13 2008, 06:37 PM) [snapback]378485[/snapback]
Wow, I certainly can't argue against any of THAT.


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Nay_Sayer
QUOTE(Method) [snapback]378493[/snapback]
JI dunno. I think this fight is a pick em. I obviously favor Pavlik, given the psychological damage suffered when you get KTFO, but Smoger could have EASILY stepped in and stopped the fight in the second and NOBODY would have complained.


Taylor won't get the early Christmas gift he got in the first fight. I think his only option is to throw all caution to the wind and go for the early KO.

But I don't see that happening. This fight comes down to discipline, IMO. Pavlik has it and Taylor doesn't. I don't think Taylor can outbox Pavlik nor do I think he can have any measure of success if he elects to stand and trade.

I see this fight going one of two ways; Taylor stands his ground and goes out on his shield or Taylor retreats and loses a lopsided decision.

And lets not forget, Taylor will have a bigger, stronger Pavlik in front of him this go round...

gods son
I put 300 bucks on Pavlik, KO 4th round!
hardhead
I say Pavlik TKO 9, I think Taylor will bring a spirited effort and might even get off to a good start but in typical Pavlik fashion he will come on in the middle rounds very strong working the body and head and brining constant pressure landing that right hand and uppercuts to wear taylor out and finish him off in the later rounds...
Elijah
I want Pavlik to win but I say JT by split decision.

Undercard is where the real fights are.
kidbazooka1
Pavlik by corner stoppage late in the fight.
BrutalBodyShots
Using this poll as a representation of the entire population, this fight is another perfect example of a great value if you plan to bet on Pavlik.

About 75% of the people in this poll think Pavlik will win, most by KO. Based on that, Pavlik is a 3-1 favorite in this forum and if we assume the same to be true in the rest of the world Pavlik should be a 3-1 favorite. The fact that Pavlik is LESS than a 2-1 favorite IMO means big value on Pavlik, so I highly suggest betting on him if you are on the fence.

The same thing happened with Mayweather-Hatton. Odds on our forum and polls all indicated Mayweather should be about a 5-1 favorite - all but guaranteed to win. Actual odds on the fight however were similar to what we're seeing with Pavlik-Taylor II however. Mayweather was a great value bet in that fight.

hardhead
You know what would be pretty cool I was just thinking, if we were able to see who picked which option in the poll, just as a reference to look back on. I know some forums have public and non public polls...
streetlion1
QUOTE(Elijah @ Feb 16 2008, 02:29 AM) [snapback]378776[/snapback]
I want Pavlik to win but I say JT by split decision.

Undercard is where the real fights are.

I havent even heard. Who is on the undercard?
salvador
QUOTE(BrutalBodyShots @ Feb 16 2008, 11:30 AM) [snapback]378801[/snapback]
Using this poll as a representation of the entire population, this fight is another perfect example of a great value if you plan to bet on Pavlik.

About 75% of the people in this poll think Pavlik will win, most by KO. Based on that, Pavlik is a 3-1 favorite in this forum and if we assume the same to be true in the rest of the world Pavlik should be a 3-1 favorite. The fact that Pavlik is LESS than a 2-1 favorite IMO means big value on Pavlik, so I highly suggest betting on him if you are on the fence.

The same thing happened with Mayweather-Hatton. Odds on our forum and polls all indicated Mayweather should be about a 5-1 favorite - all but guaranteed to win. Actual odds on the fight however were similar to what we're seeing with Pavlik-Taylor II however. Mayweather was a great value bet in that fight.


Just because 75% of the people think Pavlik will win doesn't mean that the odds should be 3-1.

KYLE THEEE SPINKS FAN
I still dont know who's gonna win this fight. Pavlik has a nice jab, and won the jabbing battle last time. Taylor still has a good jab though, and gets through with his shots. Pavlik was hurt pretty bad last time, and maybe this time he won't make it up. This to me is a toss up fight, and maybe whoever lands the first big shot wins. We'll have to see
Kyle
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(salvador @ Feb 16 2008, 04:33 PM) [snapback]378850[/snapback]
Just because 75% of the people think Pavlik will win doesn't mean that the odds should be 3-1.


By definition yes it does. For every 3 people that think Pavlik will win, one person thinks Taylor will win... that's 3-1.

BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(KYLE THEEE SPINKS FAN @ Feb 16 2008, 04:33 PM) [snapback]378851[/snapback]
Pavlik was hurt pretty bad last time, and maybe this time he won't make it up. This to me is a toss up fight, and maybe whoever lands the first big shot wins.


Or maybe this time Pavlik simply doesn't get caught the way he did the first time clowning. And chances are that Pavlik lands the first big shot, as that's what he was doing all night the first time they fought.

salvador
QUOTE(BrutalBodyShots @ Feb 16 2008, 06:42 PM) [snapback]378854[/snapback]
By definition yes it does. For every 3 people that think Pavlik will win, one person thinks Taylor will win... that's 3-1.


By definition, 3-1 odds mean that the odds have to be 3-1 in order to attract equal amounts of money to both sides of the bet. Not that I particularly feel like tangling with you on this, but odds are as much about degrees of conviction as anything else.
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE(salvador @ Feb 16 2008, 06:08 PM) [snapback]378860[/snapback]
By definition, 3-1 odds mean that the odds have to be 3-1 in order to attract equal amounts of money to both sides of the bet. Not that I particularly feel like tangling with you on this, but odds are as much about degrees of conviction as anything else.


If everyone bet equal money on who they think is going to win, 75% of the money would be going down on Pavlik and 25% going down on Taylor which would ultimately move the odds toward 3-1. The thing is that not everyone is betting their pick, and it's easier for Taylor backers to bet the underdog than it is for Pavlik backers to bet the favorite due to the attractive line on Taylor. Just like the Mayweather-Hatton line that was way too close this follows the same suit where there are far more people picking the favorite to win than the line would suggest. Therefore the line is closer than it should be, based on popular opinion.

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