Just post them real quick..
I got Dawson & Tarver by UD
Full Version: Dawson/Johnson & Tarver/Woods predicitions?
Dawson close but clear, Tarver GETS the "W".
Dawson by decision in a fight he works hard for, and Woods by decision over Tarver.
Dawson by decision over Johnson (8-4).
Tarver by decision over Woods (7-5).
Tarver by decision over Woods (7-5).
Dawson in a very close but clear decision over Johnson...
Woods in another close decision over Tarver, although I'm tempted to go with Tarver by KO after being outworked and boxed for a several rounds, as it stands I still stick with Woods..hope that was quick enough..
Woods in another close decision over Tarver, although I'm tempted to go with Tarver by KO after being outworked and boxed for a several rounds, as it stands I still stick with Woods..hope that was quick enough..
Woods SD
Dawson KO 10
Dawson KO 10
Dawson 115-113
Woods 115-113
Two close fights that go the distance IMO.
Woods 115-113
Two close fights that go the distance IMO.
I predict that of the four fights tonight, Dawson-Johnson will be the most entertaining, with Dawson having to dig deep to win a close decision.
Dawson and Woods by unanimous decision.
johnson with the upset, but right, dec.
tarver by wide dec.
tarver by wide dec.
Cintron vs. Margarito - Give me Margarito by TKO or clear UD. I am of the opinion that you never shake the kind of of a$$ whupping that Margarito laid on Cintron the first time...it only happens in movies like the Karate Kid, with a trainer like Miyagi. Well, friends, I'm gonna go ahead and say what intelligent hard-core boxing fans all over the web have been cordially discussing behind the scenes for a couple of years now - Emmanuel Stewart is one of the most overrated trainers in the game today. Let me repeat: EMMANUEL STEWART IS ONE OF THE MOST OVERRATED TRAINERS IN THE GAME TODAY. Wow! Didn't that feel good? Glad to finally get that off my chest. It's like the cartoon where Yosemite Sam gets his thumb drilled with a hammer, and has to run out of town so he can scream it at the top of his lungs (c'mon, you have all seen it). I mean, enough with the whistling past the graveyard. We don't work for HBO. We don't have to tow the company line. This guy is overrated. Apologies go out to Doug Fisher, whose boxing insight and opinions I respect (and mostly agree with), and who recently handed it to one of his mail bag readers who was a little too critical of Motor City Mechanic. I am not saying Manny sucks as a trainer. I am saying he's not as good as he gets credit for, and I personally find it offensive how quick he is to dismiss any responsibility for any of his fighters' performances (but I'll save that for another discussion). I enjoy watching Kermit Cintron. He's going to be better than most of the guys he comes up against, and, let's face it, it's fun to watch the guy connect on a fully extended punch, because he can crack. That said, I believe that Antonio Margarito is on another level, and, hopefully, on a mission to prove himself worthy of some of the lofty credit a lot fight fans give him. Margarito is too tough. Too strong. Too seasoned. If Cintron can go the distance with Margarito, he'll consider that a psychological victory much like Roy Jones was all gitty about in his rubber match with Tarver. Unlike Tarver in that rubber match though, Margarito is a finely conditioned athlete, and Cintron is without his past conditioners. I think Margarito stops him or clearly UD's him.
Gomez vs. Cotto - Give me Miguel Cotto in a UD (call it 8-4, likely 9-3 or body shot stoppage). I think Gomez will be game, and show some flashes of real competitiveness, but ultimately Cotto will impose his will and his skill. Theoretically this is a fight that should have never been made, but I believe Gomez will leave us saying, "you know, it really wasn't as bad a match up as I thought it was going to be". I personally haven't been paying too much attention to what's been going on in Cotto's camp, but hopefully he's maintained focus and has actually trained to win this one as easily as he's expected to, because I wouldn't close the door on him having to dig down, otherwise.
Woods vs. Tarver - I'll take Antonio Tarver via Competitive UD (7-5, but I don't discount Tarver stopping Woods with something he doesn't see coming somewhere in the mid to later rounds). Personally, I have never been that high on Woods (not that I am accusing any of my US contemporaries of that very crime). It's just tough to get behind the story of a recovering alcoholic who picked up boxing to get rid of the beer belly. That should be MY story...NOT the story of a legit light heavyweight champion. Kidding aside (I wasn't kidding about never being that high on Woods), I know Woods is both game and busy, but it looks to me as if Antonio Tarver is in shape for this one, and has a chip on both shoulders. He's looked less than impressive in his last two outings, and at the ripe old age of 39, I think he realizes that from this point forward he is on borrowed time, and need$ to make every $second count (note the dollar signs). He loses here, for all intents and purposes, he can throw a retirement party for one. Woods and Johnson went back and forth for a few fights, so I expect this one to be competitive, but, I think Tarver edges the game Woods out, and it would not surprise me to see Tarver catch Woods with some kind of counter to end it inside the distance. Wouldn't bank on the stoppage, but wouldn't be surprised.
Dawson vs. Johnson - Look, I'm excited about the fact that my peers, the one's whose opinions I respect, are excited about Bad Chad. I'm sure my man George (yeah, YOU, BigGeorge) is throwing darts trying to decide which Dawson picture to use as his Sunday morning avatar. I think Chad Dawson has a future ahead of him, but I think this is a stiffer test than most realize. Chad looks to be the deal, but Glen Johnson is a tough, gritty SOB. I'm gonna go against the grain here and pick Johnson by UD, or, even go further out on that limb limb *sound of cracking branch* and cite the possibility of Dawson being stopped late. Glenn is a work horse in the gym. Like Tarver, this is Glen's last stand. He loses this one, he two can throw a retirement party for one (he and Tarver both lose they could make it a dinner date). This is Chad Dawson's test. Glenn Johnson has been in there with some of the best, and he's hung tough and even beaten some of the best. Dawson's been down. I see Glen digging in and winning a competitive 7-5 UD, taking some heavy fire in the process. If Chad gasses down the stretch, I think you might see Glenn come on late, either sealing the deal for him or causing the ref to stop it.
A Parlay to consider: Being a probability/number's guy by trade, I'm not big on parlays (given the odds of it all). That said, there are certain circumstances that call for taking the other side of a situation where the chips appear to be stacked against you, especially if it doesn't require too much of a risk. Consider the following 4 fight parlay: Taking Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson (yes, JOHNSON) pays about 9-1. It's really not outlandish to think that Johnson could out point Bad Chad, and laying $100 to take in $919, or $50 to win ~$460 is not that much of a out lay for a nice little payoff if it hits.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen.
JB
Gomez vs. Cotto - Give me Miguel Cotto in a UD (call it 8-4, likely 9-3 or body shot stoppage). I think Gomez will be game, and show some flashes of real competitiveness, but ultimately Cotto will impose his will and his skill. Theoretically this is a fight that should have never been made, but I believe Gomez will leave us saying, "you know, it really wasn't as bad a match up as I thought it was going to be". I personally haven't been paying too much attention to what's been going on in Cotto's camp, but hopefully he's maintained focus and has actually trained to win this one as easily as he's expected to, because I wouldn't close the door on him having to dig down, otherwise.
Woods vs. Tarver - I'll take Antonio Tarver via Competitive UD (7-5, but I don't discount Tarver stopping Woods with something he doesn't see coming somewhere in the mid to later rounds). Personally, I have never been that high on Woods (not that I am accusing any of my US contemporaries of that very crime). It's just tough to get behind the story of a recovering alcoholic who picked up boxing to get rid of the beer belly. That should be MY story...NOT the story of a legit light heavyweight champion. Kidding aside (I wasn't kidding about never being that high on Woods), I know Woods is both game and busy, but it looks to me as if Antonio Tarver is in shape for this one, and has a chip on both shoulders. He's looked less than impressive in his last two outings, and at the ripe old age of 39, I think he realizes that from this point forward he is on borrowed time, and need$ to make every $second count (note the dollar signs). He loses here, for all intents and purposes, he can throw a retirement party for one. Woods and Johnson went back and forth for a few fights, so I expect this one to be competitive, but, I think Tarver edges the game Woods out, and it would not surprise me to see Tarver catch Woods with some kind of counter to end it inside the distance. Wouldn't bank on the stoppage, but wouldn't be surprised.
Dawson vs. Johnson - Look, I'm excited about the fact that my peers, the one's whose opinions I respect, are excited about Bad Chad. I'm sure my man George (yeah, YOU, BigGeorge) is throwing darts trying to decide which Dawson picture to use as his Sunday morning avatar. I think Chad Dawson has a future ahead of him, but I think this is a stiffer test than most realize. Chad looks to be the deal, but Glen Johnson is a tough, gritty SOB. I'm gonna go against the grain here and pick Johnson by UD, or, even go further out on that limb limb *sound of cracking branch* and cite the possibility of Dawson being stopped late. Glenn is a work horse in the gym. Like Tarver, this is Glen's last stand. He loses this one, he two can throw a retirement party for one (he and Tarver both lose they could make it a dinner date). This is Chad Dawson's test. Glenn Johnson has been in there with some of the best, and he's hung tough and even beaten some of the best. Dawson's been down. I see Glen digging in and winning a competitive 7-5 UD, taking some heavy fire in the process. If Chad gasses down the stretch, I think you might see Glenn come on late, either sealing the deal for him or causing the ref to stop it.
A Parlay to consider: Being a probability/number's guy by trade, I'm not big on parlays (given the odds of it all). That said, there are certain circumstances that call for taking the other side of a situation where the chips appear to be stacked against you, especially if it doesn't require too much of a risk. Consider the following 4 fight parlay: Taking Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson (yes, JOHNSON) pays about 9-1. It's really not outlandish to think that Johnson could out point Bad Chad, and laying $100 to take in $919, or $50 to win ~$460 is not that much of a out lay for a nice little payoff if it hits.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen.
JB
QUOTE(Method @ Apr 12 2008, 04:57 PM) [snapback]385837[/snapback]
Cintron vs. Margarito - Give me Margarito by TKO or clear UD. I am of the opinion that you never shake the kind of of a$$ whupping that Margarito laid on Cintron the first time...it only happens in movies like the Karate Kid, with a trainer like Miyagi. Well, friends, I'm gonna go ahead and say what intelligent hard-core boxing fans all over the web have been cordially discussing behind the scenes for a couple of years now - Emmanuel Stewart is one of the most overrated trainers in the game today. Let me repeat: EMMANUEL STEWART IS ONE OF THE MOST OVERRATED TRAINERS IN THE GAME TODAY. Wow! Didn't that feel good? Glad to finally get that off my chest. It's like the cartoon where Yosemite Sam gets his thumb drilled with a hammer, and has to run out of town so he can scream it at the top of his lungs (c'mon, you have all seen it). I mean, enough with the whistling past the graveyard. We don't work for HBO. We don't have to tow the company line. This guy is overrated. Apologies go out to Doug Fisher, whose boxing insight and opinions I respect (and mostly agree with), and who recently handed it to one of his mail bag readers who was a little too critical of Motor City Mechanic. I am not saying Manny sucks as a trainer. I am saying he's not as good as he gets credit for, and I personally find it offensive how quick he is to dismiss any responsibility for any of his fighters' performances (but I'll save that for another discussion). I enjoy watching Kermit Cintron. He's going to be better than most of the guys he comes up against, and, let's face it, it's fun to watch the guy connect on a fully extended punch, because he can crack. That said, I believe that Antonio Margarito is on another level, and, hopefully, on a mission to prove himself worthy of some of the lofty credit a lot fight fans give him. Margarito is too tough. Too strong. Too seasoned. If Cintron can go the distance with Margarito, he'll consider that a psychological victory much like Roy Jones was all gitty about in his rubber match with Tarver. Unlike Tarver in that rubber match though, Margarito is a finely conditioned athlete, and Cintron is without his past conditioners. I think Margarito stops him or clearly UD's him.
Gomez vs. Cotto - Give me Miguel Cotto in a UD (call it 8-4, likely 9-3 or body shot stoppage). I think Gomez will be game, and show some flashes of real competitiveness, but ultimately Cotto will impose his will and his skill. Theoretically this is a fight that should have never been made, but I believe Gomez will leave us saying, "you know, it really wasn't as bad a match up as I thought it was going to be". I personally haven't been paying too much attention to what's been going on in Cotto's camp, but hopefully he's maintained focus and has actually trained to win this one as easily as he's expected to, because I wouldn't close the door on him having to dig down, otherwise.
Woods vs. Tarver - I'll take Antonio Tarver via Competitive UD (7-5, but I don't discount Tarver stopping Woods with something he doesn't see coming somewhere in the mid to later rounds). Personally, I have never been that high on Woods (not that I am accusing any of my US contemporaries of that very crime). It's just tough to get behind the story of a recovering alcoholic who picked up boxing to get rid of the beer belly. That should be MY story...NOT the story of a legit light heavyweight champion. Kidding aside (I wasn't kidding about never being that high on Woods), I know Woods is both game and busy, but it looks to me as if Antonio Tarver is in shape for this one, and has a chip on both shoulders. He's looked less than impressive in his last two outings, and at the ripe old age of 39, I think he realizes that from this point forward he is on borrowed time, and need$ to make every $second count (note the dollar signs). He loses here, for all intents and purposes, he can throw a retirement party for one. Woods and Johnson went back and forth for a few fights, so I expect this one to be competitive, but, I think Tarver edges the game Woods out, and it would not surprise me to see Tarver catch Woods with some kind of counter to end it inside the distance. Wouldn't bank on the stoppage, but wouldn't be surprised.
Dawson vs. Johnson - Look, I'm excited about the fact that my peers, the one's whose opinions I respect, are excited about Bad Chad. I'm sure my man George (yeah, YOU, BigGeorge) is throwing darts trying to decide which Dawson picture to use as his Sunday morning avatar. I think Chad Dawson has a future ahead of him, but I think this is a stiffer test than most realize. Chad looks to be the deal, but Glen Johnson is a tough, gritty SOB. I'm gonna go against the grain here and pick Johnson by UD, or, even go further out on that limb limb *sound of cracking branch* and cite the possibility of Dawson being stopped late. Glenn is a work horse in the gym. Like Tarver, this is Glen's last stand. He loses this one, he two can throw a retirement party for one (he and Tarver both lose they could make it a dinner date). This is Chad Dawson's test. Glenn Johnson has been in there with some of the best, and he's hung tough and even beaten some of the best. Dawson's been down. I see Glen digging in and winning a competitive 7-5 UD, taking some heavy fire in the process. If Chad gasses down the stretch, I think you might see Glenn come on late, either sealing the deal for him or causing the ref to stop it.
A Parlay to consider: Being a probability/number's guy by trade, I'm not big on parlays (given the odds of it all). That said, there are certain circumstances that call for taking the other side of a situation where the chips appear to be stacked against you, especially if it doesn't require too much of a risk. Consider the following 4 fight parlay: Taking Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson (yes, JOHNSON) pays about 9-1. It's really not outlandish to think that Johnson could out point Bad Chad, and laying $100 to take in $919, or $50 to win ~$460 is not that much of a out lay for a nice little payoff if it hits.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen.
JB
Gomez vs. Cotto - Give me Miguel Cotto in a UD (call it 8-4, likely 9-3 or body shot stoppage). I think Gomez will be game, and show some flashes of real competitiveness, but ultimately Cotto will impose his will and his skill. Theoretically this is a fight that should have never been made, but I believe Gomez will leave us saying, "you know, it really wasn't as bad a match up as I thought it was going to be". I personally haven't been paying too much attention to what's been going on in Cotto's camp, but hopefully he's maintained focus and has actually trained to win this one as easily as he's expected to, because I wouldn't close the door on him having to dig down, otherwise.
Woods vs. Tarver - I'll take Antonio Tarver via Competitive UD (7-5, but I don't discount Tarver stopping Woods with something he doesn't see coming somewhere in the mid to later rounds). Personally, I have never been that high on Woods (not that I am accusing any of my US contemporaries of that very crime). It's just tough to get behind the story of a recovering alcoholic who picked up boxing to get rid of the beer belly. That should be MY story...NOT the story of a legit light heavyweight champion. Kidding aside (I wasn't kidding about never being that high on Woods), I know Woods is both game and busy, but it looks to me as if Antonio Tarver is in shape for this one, and has a chip on both shoulders. He's looked less than impressive in his last two outings, and at the ripe old age of 39, I think he realizes that from this point forward he is on borrowed time, and need$ to make every $second count (note the dollar signs). He loses here, for all intents and purposes, he can throw a retirement party for one. Woods and Johnson went back and forth for a few fights, so I expect this one to be competitive, but, I think Tarver edges the game Woods out, and it would not surprise me to see Tarver catch Woods with some kind of counter to end it inside the distance. Wouldn't bank on the stoppage, but wouldn't be surprised.
Dawson vs. Johnson - Look, I'm excited about the fact that my peers, the one's whose opinions I respect, are excited about Bad Chad. I'm sure my man George (yeah, YOU, BigGeorge) is throwing darts trying to decide which Dawson picture to use as his Sunday morning avatar. I think Chad Dawson has a future ahead of him, but I think this is a stiffer test than most realize. Chad looks to be the deal, but Glen Johnson is a tough, gritty SOB. I'm gonna go against the grain here and pick Johnson by UD, or, even go further out on that limb limb *sound of cracking branch* and cite the possibility of Dawson being stopped late. Glenn is a work horse in the gym. Like Tarver, this is Glen's last stand. He loses this one, he two can throw a retirement party for one (he and Tarver both lose they could make it a dinner date). This is Chad Dawson's test. Glenn Johnson has been in there with some of the best, and he's hung tough and even beaten some of the best. Dawson's been down. I see Glen digging in and winning a competitive 7-5 UD, taking some heavy fire in the process. If Chad gasses down the stretch, I think you might see Glenn come on late, either sealing the deal for him or causing the ref to stop it.
A Parlay to consider: Being a probability/number's guy by trade, I'm not big on parlays (given the odds of it all). That said, there are certain circumstances that call for taking the other side of a situation where the chips appear to be stacked against you, especially if it doesn't require too much of a risk. Consider the following 4 fight parlay: Taking Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson (yes, JOHNSON) pays about 9-1. It's really not outlandish to think that Johnson could out point Bad Chad, and laying $100 to take in $919, or $50 to win ~$460 is not that much of a out lay for a nice little payoff if it hits.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen.
JB
Where can you parlay fights? I have margarito, (cotto but i want gomez) woods and tarver is a toss up, so pick dawsson over the aging johnson
Sportsbook.com
I played around with the combos you're looking at too, but picking 4 favorites really doesn't pay out much. It's like +150 or something alittle better, but for a payout that small, which is dependent on 4 outcomes, for that you shoulod just pick omne fight and put all your eggs on it with the clear favorite (i.e. a Margarito or a Cotto). It's just the laws pof probability, and the reasons parlay payouts increase the more events that are tied to them, is because the less liklihood all will come out (not that you need to be told something you already know).
I hear you on the Dawson thing. My thing is this, I really do expect both Margarito and Cotto to win, agreed? Almost so forgone that let's just assume they win and concede the "w"'s, in which case those two components of a 4 component parlay, for this discussion, do not exist. Now it comes down to Tarver/Woods and Johnson/Dawson. Tarver/Woods kinda worries me a bit, as it does you, because if Tarver shits the bed, then he could drop a decision to Woods and it ruins the fucking parlay if Johnson does upset Dawson, which is the real thing I want to capture alpha on.
So What I did is lay TWO 4-fight parlays...
The first was $100 on Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson to win, which pays ~$900.
The second was just $50 on Margarito, Cotto, Woods and Johnson to win, which pays ~$450.
I only laid $50 on the second because I feel more confident about Tarver beating Woods than Woods beating Tarver, but again, having action on either out come of that fight kind of eliminates it from the equation, but the increased payout because of the event being included in the wager is still factored in.
All that said to say this - I think Glenn Johnson is a live dog here, but if you just wanted to pick Johnson straight up for the upset, betting $100 only pays you like $280. I don't really think that payout is all that attractive, but by factoring in the other bouts in a parlay, I am essentially getting odds on Glenn Johnson at +900, and only stand to lose $150 (alright, considering the other $50 wager, I am getting him at a little less than +900).
Not a lot of cash outlay for a sweet little payout that, even if Clinton Woods wins and Johnson pulls the upset, I am going to more than cover my total outlay (by ~$300).
We'll see.
I played around with the combos you're looking at too, but picking 4 favorites really doesn't pay out much. It's like +150 or something alittle better, but for a payout that small, which is dependent on 4 outcomes, for that you shoulod just pick omne fight and put all your eggs on it with the clear favorite (i.e. a Margarito or a Cotto). It's just the laws pof probability, and the reasons parlay payouts increase the more events that are tied to them, is because the less liklihood all will come out (not that you need to be told something you already know).
I hear you on the Dawson thing. My thing is this, I really do expect both Margarito and Cotto to win, agreed? Almost so forgone that let's just assume they win and concede the "w"'s, in which case those two components of a 4 component parlay, for this discussion, do not exist. Now it comes down to Tarver/Woods and Johnson/Dawson. Tarver/Woods kinda worries me a bit, as it does you, because if Tarver shits the bed, then he could drop a decision to Woods and it ruins the fucking parlay if Johnson does upset Dawson, which is the real thing I want to capture alpha on.
So What I did is lay TWO 4-fight parlays...
The first was $100 on Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson to win, which pays ~$900.
The second was just $50 on Margarito, Cotto, Woods and Johnson to win, which pays ~$450.
I only laid $50 on the second because I feel more confident about Tarver beating Woods than Woods beating Tarver, but again, having action on either out come of that fight kind of eliminates it from the equation, but the increased payout because of the event being included in the wager is still factored in.
All that said to say this - I think Glenn Johnson is a live dog here, but if you just wanted to pick Johnson straight up for the upset, betting $100 only pays you like $280. I don't really think that payout is all that attractive, but by factoring in the other bouts in a parlay, I am essentially getting odds on Glenn Johnson at +900, and only stand to lose $150 (alright, considering the other $50 wager, I am getting him at a little less than +900).
Not a lot of cash outlay for a sweet little payout that, even if Clinton Woods wins and Johnson pulls the upset, I am going to more than cover my total outlay (by ~$300).
We'll see.
margareto tko round 4
Cotto - tko rnd 9
tarver-points SD
Dawson- UD
if i am right, i shall be allowed to post a nude pic of myself!
Cotto - tko rnd 9
tarver-points SD
Dawson- UD
if i am right, i shall be allowed to post a nude pic of myself!
So much for Johnson. Jhonson had Dawson hurt a few times, early, and ESPECIALLY in the 10th. The 10th Glenn had him almost out. Chad fell forward and was literally hangning on for dear life. Man did I think the fight shoulda been a draw. I could have seen it for either guy by a point, maybe 2. Or a plit decision. But fuck, these judges had it 8-4. The crowd erupted in Boo's, not at the score, but at the victor. They went nuts.
Well, almost had $900 in the bag.
Enjoy the rest.
Well, almost had $900 in the bag.
Enjoy the rest.
I had it a draw 114-114, but that 3rd was the only real close round and I gave it to Johnson, so a slight lean to Dawson IMO but would not have been upset one bit if Johnson got the nod, he came on strong at the end there and almost had Dawson out...recap later..
QUOTE(hardhead @ Apr 13 2008, 04:06 AM) [snapback]385930[/snapback]
I had it a draw 114-114, but that 3rd was the only real close round and I gave it to Johnson, so a slight lean to Dawson IMO but would not have been upset one bit if Johnson got the nod, he came on strong at the end there and almost had Dawson out...recap later..
Cotto iv not watched yet but got the fight recorded.Dawson fight i watched & i gave Dawson the fight by one round.Tarver gave woods a battering for 12 rounds.If Tarver & Dawson meet it wont be a good fight as there 2 much alike.
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