QUOTE(Method @ Apr 12 2008, 04:57 PM) [snapback]385837[/snapback]
Cintron vs. Margarito - Give me Margarito by TKO or clear UD. I am of the opinion that you never shake the kind of of a$$ whupping that Margarito laid on Cintron the first time...it only happens in movies like the Karate Kid, with a trainer like Miyagi. Well, friends, I'm gonna go ahead and say what intelligent hard-core boxing fans all over the web have been cordially discussing behind the scenes for a couple of years now - Emmanuel Stewart is one of the most overrated trainers in the game today. Let me repeat: EMMANUEL STEWART IS ONE OF THE MOST OVERRATED TRAINERS IN THE GAME TODAY. Wow! Didn't that feel good? Glad to finally get that off my chest. It's like the cartoon where Yosemite Sam gets his thumb drilled with a hammer, and has to run out of town so he can scream it at the top of his lungs (c'mon, you have all seen it). I mean, enough with the whistling past the graveyard. We don't work for HBO. We don't have to tow the company line. This guy is overrated. Apologies go out to Doug Fisher, whose boxing insight and opinions I respect (and mostly agree with), and who recently handed it to one of his mail bag readers who was a little too critical of Motor City Mechanic. I am not saying Manny sucks as a trainer. I am saying he's not as good as he gets credit for, and I personally find it offensive how quick he is to dismiss any responsibility for any of his fighters' performances (but I'll save that for another discussion). I enjoy watching Kermit Cintron. He's going to be better than most of the guys he comes up against, and, let's face it, it's fun to watch the guy connect on a fully extended punch, because he can crack. That said, I believe that Antonio Margarito is on another level, and, hopefully, on a mission to prove himself worthy of some of the lofty credit a lot fight fans give him. Margarito is too tough. Too strong. Too seasoned. If Cintron can go the distance with Margarito, he'll consider that a psychological victory much like Roy Jones was all gitty about in his rubber match with Tarver. Unlike Tarver in that rubber match though, Margarito is a finely conditioned athlete, and Cintron is without his past conditioners. I think Margarito stops him or clearly UD's him.
Gomez vs. Cotto - Give me Miguel Cotto in a UD (call it 8-4, likely 9-3 or body shot stoppage). I think Gomez will be game, and show some flashes of real competitiveness, but ultimately Cotto will impose his will and his skill. Theoretically this is a fight that should have never been made, but I believe Gomez will leave us saying, "you know, it really wasn't as bad a match up as I thought it was going to be". I personally haven't been paying too much attention to what's been going on in Cotto's camp, but hopefully he's maintained focus and has actually trained to win this one as easily as he's expected to, because I wouldn't close the door on him having to dig down, otherwise.
Woods vs. Tarver - I'll take Antonio Tarver via Competitive UD (7-5, but I don't discount Tarver stopping Woods with something he doesn't see coming somewhere in the mid to later rounds). Personally, I have never been that high on Woods (not that I am accusing any of my US contemporaries of that very crime). It's just tough to get behind the story of a recovering alcoholic who picked up boxing to get rid of the beer belly. That should be MY story...NOT the story of a legit light heavyweight champion. Kidding aside (I wasn't kidding about never being that high on Woods), I know Woods is both game and busy, but it looks to me as if Antonio Tarver is in shape for this one, and has a chip on both shoulders. He's looked less than impressive in his last two outings, and at the ripe old age of 39, I think he realizes that from this point forward he is on borrowed time, and need$ to make every $second count (note the dollar signs). He loses here, for all intents and purposes, he can throw a retirement party for one. Woods and Johnson went back and forth for a few fights, so I expect this one to be competitive, but, I think Tarver edges the game Woods out, and it would not surprise me to see Tarver catch Woods with some kind of counter to end it inside the distance. Wouldn't bank on the stoppage, but wouldn't be surprised.
Dawson vs. Johnson - Look, I'm excited about the fact that my peers, the one's whose opinions I respect, are excited about Bad Chad. I'm sure my man George (yeah, YOU, BigGeorge) is throwing darts trying to decide which Dawson picture to use as his Sunday morning avatar. I think Chad Dawson has a future ahead of him, but I think this is a stiffer test than most realize. Chad looks to be the deal, but Glen Johnson is a tough, gritty SOB. I'm gonna go against the grain here and pick Johnson by UD, or, even go further out on that limb limb *sound of cracking branch* and cite the possibility of Dawson being stopped late. Glenn is a work horse in the gym. Like Tarver, this is Glen's last stand. He loses this one, he two can throw a retirement party for one (he and Tarver both lose they could make it a dinner date). This is Chad Dawson's test. Glenn Johnson has been in there with some of the best, and he's hung tough and even beaten some of the best. Dawson's been down. I see Glen digging in and winning a competitive 7-5 UD, taking some heavy fire in the process. If Chad gasses down the stretch, I think you might see Glenn come on late, either sealing the deal for him or causing the ref to stop it.
A Parlay to consider: Being a probability/number's guy by trade, I'm not big on parlays (given the odds of it all). That said, there are certain circumstances that call for taking the other side of a situation where the chips appear to be stacked against you, especially if it doesn't require too much of a risk. Consider the following 4 fight parlay: Taking Margarito, Cotto, Tarver and Johnson (yes, JOHNSON) pays about 9-1. It's really not outlandish to think that Johnson could out point Bad Chad, and laying $100 to take in $919, or $50 to win ~$460 is not that much of a out lay for a nice little payoff if it hits.
Enjoy the fights, gentlemen.
Where can you parlay fights? I have margarito, (cotto but i want gomez) woods and tarver is a toss up, so pick dawsson over the aging johnson