QUOTE(hardhead @ Aug 12 2008, 01:09 PM) [snapback]400257[/snapback]
Warlord, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this.
First thing about China. I work here, and thankfully I am in a position to make alot of money off of China's economic boom, so it's not like I'm just blindly hating on this country like some uber-patriotic moron. But the truth of the matter is that China's dream of dominating the century isn't going to become a reality anytime soon.
Too many constraints are built into this country's social, economic and political systems; shitty demographics, an overrated economy, a fucked up enviroment, and an ideology that doesn't exactly have a sterling track record.
In the West, China is known as the land of limitless, cheap labor, a land where millions are eager to leave the countryside for a chance to tighten screws in microwaves or stitch together the newest pair of designer jeans. China is going to rise to super-power status, says conventional wisdom, on the back of its massive workforce.
Here's the kick in the nuts: China's demographics blow. No country is aging faster than the People's Republic. The majority of people will die there before they get rich. Because of the Communist Party's one-child-per-family policy, the average number of children born to a Chinese woman has dropped from 5.8 in the 1970s to 1.8 today -- below the rate of 2.1 that would keep the population stable. Meanwhile, life expectancy has shot up, from just 35 in 1949 to more than 73 today. What this means, in simpler terms, is that as the working-age population shrinks, labor costs will rise, significantly eroding one of China's key competitive advantages. (Namely the theory of a cheap, unlimited workforce.)
Worse is China's elderly, a group that will shoot from 100 million people older than 60 today to 334 million by 2050, including a staggering 100 million age 80 or older. How is China gonna cope with that shit? With pensions? Less than 30 percent of China's urban population have them, and none of the country's 700 million farmers do. China's state-funded pension system makes Social Security look like a stroke of genius.
What kills me are these geniuses cumming their pants about how big China's economy is. China has over 1 billion people, more than four times that of the United States. China should have a big economy. However, on a per capita basis, this country is shit. Its sitting in 109th place on the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Database, right between Swaziland and Morocco. China's economy is large, but its average living standard is low, and it will stay that way for a very long time, even assuming that the economy continues to grow at the rate it is now. (Which it won't.)
Probably the biggest misconception floating out there right now is the U.S. trade deficit with China, which hovers right at about $260 billion. What all these armchair economists fail to mention is that nearly 60 percent of China's total exports are churned out by companies not owned by Chinese (many of these being U.S. ones.) When it comes to high-tech exports such as computers and electronic goods, 89 percent of China's exports come from non-Chinese-owned companies. China is part of the global system, but it's still the low-cost assembly and manufacturing part -- It's the foreign companies, not Chinese, who are reaping the lion's share of the profits.
Pure Economy aside, China's environmental issue is, at this point, beyond repair. China is now the world's No. 1 emitter of greenhouse gases. It continues to be the largest depleter of the ozone layer, and it is by far the largest polluter of the Pacific Ocean. What's more, 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China, including Shanghai and Beijing, two of the dirtiest, filthiest cities in the world. I've never had any breathing problems in my life, but I've been in Shanghai for less than a year and I'm like a goddamn asthmatic.
Air pollution aside, it has also been reported that over 70 percent of the country's lakes and rivers are polluted, and more than half the population lacks something as simple as clean drinking water. (I've experienced this in Shanghai, China's most developed city by far. I can't imagine what that shit is like in some countryside hovel.) I've also read that by 2030, China will face a water shortage surpassing the amount it now consumes. Factories in the northwest (Wuhan, for instance) have already been forced out of business because there just isn't any usable water. Somehow, though, this shit just doesn't seem to quite register in the West.
Economics and pollution aside, China just doesn't have the mindset to be a world power. They prefer too much to sit on the sidelines and do nothing, in fact their national policy is based on it. They love to criticise the West and tell you how wrong you are, but they freak the minute you come to China and do anything other than suck their dicks. They're insensitive little pricks with a national chauvinism that goes beyond rational thinking. The country is nearly 5,000 years old and they are still struggling to catch up. They can't compete with the U.S., who is a fucking infant when compared to China in terms of history. They can't even comprehend a simple concept like social responsibility. There's no such thing as standing in line here. Mother fuckers just stand in a clusterfuck of a mess, cutting in front of each other at every turn.
They don't believe in personal hygiene of any kind, they never use deoderant and rarely use any creams or lotions that could help. (Unlike Japanese, who take care of themselves better than anyone I've ever met.) When elevators doors or subway doors open or close, these motherfuckers shove on and off without waiting for you to exit. They don't hold the doors for the elevator, even if they see you coming. In fact they hurry up and press the close button as fast as possible.
The babies here wear assless chaps so that parents can just hold them over a trashcan or sidewalk and let them piss or shit. Which, all in all, is much better I guess than the grown men here who piss and shit on subways, or pull their cars over and piss on walls when they have to go.
Sitting on a subway or in a movie theatre is fucked up, because you have people yelling at each other and shouting into their cell-phones like it's just another day at the office. (unlike Japanese, who are very quiet and polite in both public and private forums.) People here yell, always, at every turn, btw. No one speaks. Ever. They scream. It's a lifestyle.
Lastly, China is bogged down in the past. They suck their own dicks about 5,000 years of failure and stagnation and treat it like it were some kind of golden age. They never let go of their pasts, they blame everyone but themselves for the situation they are in. They curse Japan and bitch and whine about World War II like they were the only motherfuckers who ever got the wrong end of the deal in a war, and they get irate the minute you try to explain anything based on the contrary, like maybe Mao killing more chinese than any other country, including Japan, ever did.
You guys living in the States who've never been outside your borders, believe me, you got nothing to worry about. Not from China. It may be that America falls someday, and perhaps there will be another to rise up and take her place. It just won't be China.