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BrutalBodyShots
Hey everyone. I didn't see a thread for this fight and since it's going down in about 12 hours I guess it's time to discuss!

Anyone else other than me surprised that Diaz is a 6-1 favorite in this fight? Even if Diaz hadn't taken a licking and gotten brutally stopped in his last fight I wouldn't go wider than 3-1 on this... but considering that KO loss and how you never know how a young fighter will bounce back from their first KO loss I wouldn't list Diaz more than a 2-1 favorite.

Paulie isn't the best out there but has only lost to two very good guys. Diaz lost to Campbell which you can chalk up to experience, but still it is Campbell. Paulie I think has the style to frustrate Diaz a bit, not allowing him to bull forward and set his feet enough to get off as many shots as he'd like. Fortunately for Diaz, Malignaggi hits about as hard as Marquez did at maybe the age of 10 so certainly he isn't getting stopped. I feel strongly that the fight will go all 12 rounds, and with Diaz' activity he should win maybe 8-4 or 7-5 in rounds; I just don't see a one sided blowout that the odds indicate.

What do you guys think? +450 on Malignaggi by decision isn't a bad play... nor is throwing a little buck at +2200 on the draw since the fight will likely be close and go to the cards.
Douchebag
QUOTE (BrutalBodyShots @ Aug 22 2009, 09:41 AM) *
Hey everyone. I didn't see a thread for this fight and since it's going down in about 12 hours I guess it's time to discuss!

Anyone else other than me surprised that Diaz is a 6-1 favorite in this fight? Even if Diaz hadn't taken a licking and gotten brutally stopped in his last fight I wouldn't go wider than 3-1 on this... but considering that KO loss and how you never know how a young fighter will bounce back from their first KO loss I wouldn't list Diaz more than a 2-1 favorite.

Paulie isn't the best out there but has only lost to two very good guys. Diaz lost to Campbell which you can chalk up to experience, but still it is Campbell. Paulie I think has the style to frustrate Diaz a bit, not allowing him to bull forward and set his feet enough to get off as many shots as he'd like. Fortunately for Diaz, Malignaggi hits about as hard as Marquez did at maybe the age of 10 so certainly he isn't getting stopped. I feel strongly that the fight will go all 12 rounds, and with Diaz' activity he should win maybe 8-4 or 7-5 in rounds; I just don't see a one sided blowout that the odds indicate.

What do you guys think? +450 on Malignaggi by decision isn't a bad play... nor is throwing a little buck at +2200 on the draw since the fight will likely be close and go to the cards.



There is no shame in losing to Nate Campbell he is on the level of the guys that beat Paulie IMO, and its not like he got KOed and humiliated by Nate, he lost a clear decision. That said give my Juan Diaz by dec. I think the workrate is to going to be to much for Paulie and Paulie doesn't have the fire power stop Diaz from bulling forward.
The CEO
Diaz by UD

I believe Paulie when he says he's up against it in Houston. I also believe it won't matter. The more spirited, busier fighter will win this one... and that's Diaz. He will clearly outwork Malignaggi and earn the decision.
JLUVBABY
i'm going with the kid.. the baby bull by ud... i would have been there tonight but im leaving with the job for ohio early in the morning...
KYLE THEEE SPINKS FAN
Ya know gimme The Magic Man by unanimous decision. I believe Paulie when he says that Buddy fucked his style all up, because he did. Paulie is a fighter that uses his legs and length to win fights. They had him fighting short, which is why he looked like shit against N'Dou and Ngoudjo. He fought well the first round against Hatton, but reverted back to what he did in the N'Dou rematch. Malignaggi has serious skills in there, and we don't know how Diaz will react, especially if he gets cut. I think Diaz is prone to cuts now, and that will play a factor. Malignaggi will win the last five rounds of this fight to win a comfortable decision. The speed and movement will give Diaz problems.

Somebody mentioned that there will be problems with the officiating in this fight. Honestly, Paulie has made such a fuss about this that it can't go unnoticed. I think the judges may have this in mind, say if Diaz is up 58-56, and the 7th is a close round. We'll see what happens, but I don't see anybody getting screwed.
Keith
Diaz by by TKO. There's no magic left in the hat.
BrutalBodyShots
I put $50 on a draw at 22-1 to win $1100.

Mean Mister Mustard
QUOTE
Malignaggi hits about as hard as Marquez did at maybe the age of 10


LOL

I'd go with Diaz by decision but I doubt he stops Malignaggi who is a crafty guy and not afraid to clinch. Remember when Diaz fought Angulo on the Brigss-Lyakhovich undercard and Angulo was holding a lot, Diaz seemed flustered. So I expect Malignaggi to pump the jab and when Diaz gets cloe he will clinch right away to nullify the action. diaz outworks him but he might not be as effective running Maligngaggi down as Cotto and Hatton were able to. Those guys had good footwork while Diaz is more stationary, his feet are flat on the canvas.
Thegreatequalizer
i think this could be very entertaining. neither one of these guys have much power, so they might be more inclined to let it all go. we'll see. also, it's not clear how much either of these guys has left. i'm thinking diaz by ud. if paulie doesn't bring his A game he'll get ko'd.
Jack 1000
Diaz by wide UD,

Paulie can't do anything to hurt him, It's in Texas, and there's no way Malignaggi is walking out of there with a decision. Oh yea, I heard they got Lawrence Cole as ref. "You sure you wanna keep fighting? You're ahead on the scorecards." There's nothing that Paulie can do to win this.

Jack
kidbazooka1
Diaz will be too relentless and strong for Malinaggi I see him takeing a UD.

salvador
I've got $50 on Malignaggi at +400 and I've also got $50 on a draw at +2200. Both bets have real value, though I think that Diaz wins this by an 8-4 type of decision.



BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE (salvador @ Aug 22 2009, 06:05 PM) *
I've got $50 on Malignaggi at +400 and I've also got $50 on a draw at +2200. Both bets have real value, though I think that Diaz wins this by an 8-4 type of decision.


Nice bets Sal, that's exactly what I would have done except I would have gone with the +450 on Malignaggi by decision since I don't see him stopping Diaz... but you never know, Diaz could step in the ring with a Vargas type chin after being iced by that Marquez uppercut. I don't recall seeing the odds on Malignaggi by stoppage... probably +1000 or so lol.

streetlion1
My prediction.....The he-she Malignaggi gets his ass handed to him!
BrutalBodyShots
QUOTE (salvador @ Aug 22 2009, 06:05 PM) *
I've got $50 on Malignaggi at +400 and I've also got $50 on a draw at +2200. Both bets have real value, though I think that Diaz wins this by an 8-4 type of decision.


Nice bets Sal, that's exactly what I would have done except I would have gone with the +450 on Malignaggi by decision since I don't see him stopping Diaz... but you never know, Diaz could step in the ring with a Vargas type chin after being iced by that Marquez uppercut. I don't recall seeing the odds on Malignaggi by stoppage... probably +1000 or so lol.

salvador
QUOTE (BrutalBodyShots @ Aug 22 2009, 07:37 PM) *
Nice bets Sal, that's exactly what I would have done except I would have gone with the +450 on Malignaggi by decision since I don't see him stopping Diaz... but you never know, Diaz could step in the ring with a Vargas type chin after being iced by that Marquez uppercut. I don't recall seeing the odds on Malignaggi by stoppage... probably +1000 or so lol.


It's interesting, you and I would make good partners in an investment firm, as we almost always see eye to eye in terms of where the value is.

Seriously, Malignaggi looked so bad against Hatton, but he is bigger and he did make that unbelievable stand against Cotto (a 2-1 underdog against Pacquiao, another interesting bet), and Diaz ain't no Cotto.





pacco_diablo
Diaz win via KO in 8. I have no money on this so I wish you guys the best of luck. Anyone can get caught.

"You can be touched"- 2pac
BrutalBodyShots
Sal you and I should have hit a draw last night. If any fight should have been ruled a draw it was last nights fight.

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