Clottey at +400 is about as solid a long odds type of bet as I can imagine - even given the fact that Boxing/Arum/WBO/Texas judges ect. are all totally corrupt and given that Pac is obviously the money going forward. If you take away the political/corrupt angle in the fight, my best guess on the odds should be somewhere around +200 for Clottey to win.
Clottey should be the toughest challenge of Pac's career. Clottey has the best chin, the best counter shots (except for JMM), the best defense, and the biggest size advantage of anyone Pac has faced. Not only that, Clottey knows for absolutely damn sure that this is his very last shot at the big time. Further, and I think this is critical - I HAPPEN TO BELIEVE THAT PAC HAS BEEN USING HGH OR SOMETHING SIMILAR and I seriously doubt he'd be stupid enough to use any sort of similar substance for this fight, meaning that he's going to be coming in a lesser fighter than we've seen recently.
I think that Clottey's short/quick/accurate/heavy counters could possibly be the difference in the fight. Pac's last really competitive fight was against the best counter puncher he's faced, JMM, and Clottey's counters are going to be heavier and will definitely mess with Pac's rhythm. And we know Clottey can take Pac's punch.
Further, the size factor will matter. Clottey-Judah was a mismatch based on size alone and Clottey has a much bigger size advantage against Pac. And I'm not sure that Pac is that much faster than Judah. Obviously Pac has more weapons than Zab.
Basically, I believe the odds reflect the notion that most educated gamblers think the Pac-Floyd fight is a foregone conclusion and that Arum wouldn't dream of risking that payday and the rest of the gamblers are in love with Pac. And even though I still think Pac will probably win on points, the market is offering a risk/reward that should be considered by any serious boxing gambler.
And for some perspective on +400, Eddie Chambers is +500 against Wlad. In other words, the market has decided that Pac has virtually no chance of losing to a guy who's probably going to outweigh him in the ring by 15-20 pounds. It's crazy.