Clottey at +400 is about as solid a long odds type of bet as I can imagine - even given the fact that Boxing/Arum/WBO/Texas judges ect. are all totally corrupt and given that Pac is obviously the money going forward. If you take away the political/corrupt angle in the fight, my best guess on the odds should be somewhere around +200 for Clottey to win.

Clottey should be the toughest challenge of Pac's career. Clottey has the best chin, the best counter shots (except for JMM), the best defense, and the biggest size advantage of anyone Pac has faced. Not only that, Clottey knows for absolutely damn sure that this is his very last shot at the big time. Further, and I think this is critical - I HAPPEN TO BELIEVE THAT PAC HAS BEEN USING HGH OR SOMETHING SIMILAR and I seriously doubt he'd be stupid enough to use any sort of similar substance for this fight, meaning that he's going to be coming in a lesser fighter than we've seen recently.

I think that Clottey's short/quick/accurate/heavy counters could possibly be the difference in the fight. Pac's last really competitive fight was against the best counter puncher he's faced, JMM, and Clottey's counters are going to be heavier and will definitely mess with Pac's rhythm. And we know Clottey can take Pac's punch.

Further, the size factor will matter. Clottey-Judah was a mismatch based on size alone and Clottey has a much bigger size advantage against Pac. And I'm not sure that Pac is that much faster than Judah. Obviously Pac has more weapons than Zab.

Basically, I believe the odds reflect the notion that most educated gamblers think the Pac-Floyd fight is a foregone conclusion and that Arum wouldn't dream of risking that payday and the rest of the gamblers are in love with Pac. And even though I still think Pac will probably win on points, the market is offering a risk/reward that should be considered by any serious boxing gambler.

And for some perspective on +400, Eddie Chambers is +500 against Wlad. In other words, the market has decided that Pac has virtually no chance of losing to a guy who's probably going to outweigh him in the ring by 15-20 pounds. It's crazy.

FUCK IT,IM GONNA DROP A LIL CHANGE ON CLOTTY!DAM IT CLOTTY ,WAR!!!

but you CAN'T take away that angle...lol...that's THE story of this fight...

The odds of Politics/Corruption being in play are damn near 100%...

My advice to gamblers who can't help themselves and HAVE to bet...don't bet more than $125 on Clottey...that's IF you got $125 to lose without missing it....because all signs point to Pacquiao winning with a Mayweather fight on deck...

smart man!

golly you're cynical!

The fix is in...

I hate Manny Pacquiao, I would love for him to get his ass kicked ,but id put my money on Pac ,there is No way Clottey wins .Pac going to kick Clotteys ass ,He'll throw 3 to 4 punches and get out the way all night....

I agree that Pac will probably win, but there's no way he's throwing 3-4 punches and getting out of the way. Clottey has fast hands and throws short accurate counters. Pac will get countered more effectively than he has since JMM. And Clottey's punches are going to have 170 pounds behind them. If Clottey gets his ass kicked it'll be because he gets tired in the late rounds.

I am not sure that Clottey will have a 15 to 20 pound weight advantage in there...I think it will 10 tops.

Pac is going to outwork Clottey from the middle of the fight on.

So what your basically saying is that if pac comes in heavier than we have ever seen him and wins, that you'll concede he was never on PEDS? Because he'd be stupid to have used them this soon after the mayweather debacle

My guess is if he wins your claims he was on something will be louder than ever

Pac hasn't really gotten bigger recently, he just hasn't sucked down to make weight. By and large, he has entered the ring in around the same range.

Pac literally looks like Bruce Lee on steroids. He didn't always look like that. He was 129 for the second Marquez fight which was less than 2 years ago.

If he knocks Clottey out then he is definitely on SOMETHING. There's just no way a natural featherweight kos a natural jrmw.

But what did he weigh on fight night? That is the better indicator of actual weight, rather than how successful someone is at dehydrating

Pac is insane shape...that doesn't mean he is on anything. He weighed in at 129 for the second Marquez fight...he entered the ring at 145. Could he be? Who knows...but without any evidence whatsoever, I am not ready to just say that he definitely is.



I think Pacquiao and Roach have done a good job convincing people that he is a small fighter.

Gotta be, man...GOTTA be...after all, this IS Boxing...lol

You listed the factors and what's at stake.


I personally think Clottey will be gettin' paid under the table as well...to keep his hands up and take punches like he does, and to give a smidge less offensive effort than he gave in the Cotto fight.

Those odds suck big time. Clottey should be at +1000. He has next to NO chance of winning this fight.

im a little late at posating this but in regards to manny not using what ever it is for this fight... i dont see why he wouldnt... i mean i live in texas and will be first to say texas has some of the sorriest officiating and questionable officiating i have ever seen here in the states... im going to the fight simply cuzz its within driving distance for me but i doubt they would take him off the juice just yet... number one i dont think he beats clottey without it and 2 they have to ensure he win in order to keep the cash out fight alive... if he gets off the stuff it'll be for the mayweather fight... imo...

clotteys only chance is to knock out manny... no way he wins a decision even if he deserves it in texas at texas stadium... jones and arum seem to be chums as well... it might even be so bad that clottey gets lucky and sends manny packing before the 12th round and still gets disqualified for a low blow or some type of bull... i know thats a stretch but what im starting to see in some of these fights it wouldnt surprise me...

VERY TRUE!

"Hey Josh. We notice you made this much against Cotto and Margarito in a close fight with a decision not going your way. Now looking at what you made there, how would you feel about making this much against Pacquiao? Just go out there, make it competitive and see if you can take it to the cards. That sounds like a fair offer."

Seriously, a lot of Gayweatherish talks. This won't even be close even if it goes the decision. The Pontoogays need to find some other angles of attack. A lof of predictions with regards to Pac have been off lately. Nazim is perhaps the only one who thinks Pac is bigger than people think he is.

Yeah, Texas officiating might just be worse than the Europeans and there's no reason to think that any extra measure would be taken for the simple reason of maintaining the integrity of the Texas boxing commission. That said, Pac has more to lose than just a fight with Floyd. His prestige has to matter to him more than anything else at this point and I have a hard time believing that he'd risk that - assuming that he's been on HGH or whatever type of drug he may have been on. The eyes of the world are on him now.

I tend to think that Arum underestimates Clottey and that's why he's put him in with Cotto (huge mistake from Arum that happened to pay off because of judges that had to have been bought) and Marg. If Clottey is able to counter Pac early, it won't matter what Pac is on. Clottey will wear him down.

Pacqiuao will squash Clottey with ease just waite and see.

if pac walks through clottey.... lol... i'm not saying anymore... lol...smh...

Just waite and see.

There's nothing Clottey can do to beat Pacqiuao IMO.

Yes, because this fight is a fix. Clottey probably would have been told.

"Hey Josh, how do you feel about fighting Manny? We notice you got paid this much against Margarito and Cotto, now we are going to offer you this much to fight Manny. We don't expect Manny to lose. A fight fell through with Manny and we understand that this will result in another loss for you which is why we are paying you this sum to fight Manny. We don't expect you to win and we don't expect Manny to lose. Just go out there, give Manny a tough fight and try take it to the cards.
This loss won't be the end of you, you get some more title shots and I can promise that. Just take this fight for now, and you will be paid well"

Arum isn't an idiot and would not risk this if he didn't have any assurance.

Yep. I just don't think Clottey will win this. I will admit, that I would give Clottey a good chance if this was a fight I didn't feel funny about. But under most circumstances, no promoter would put his fighter in a fight the calibre of Clottey who also doesn't really have a big name either just after a $100million fight falls through.
Arum controls these guys, and he really isn't an idiot.

At this point I'm a bit biased because I''ve got $200 on Clottey to win (the odds have since gone up to +425), but I just don't think Clottey is in on this. How could Arum possibly trust Clottey to live up to his end of any sort of bargain - unless Arum knows some real gangsters or immigration officials? So maybe the judges have been bought and Clottey has no chance at a close decision, but if Clottey shows up to win and we learn early that Pac can't hurt him or get through his defense, I don't see why Clottey couldn't win this thing. I especially think Clottey wins this thing if Pac has been using PEDs recently and comes into this fight clean.

Though I must admit, I have the same sinking feeling.

I think you guys are overdoing it with the conspiracy theory.

Arum put Pacquiao in there with Clottey because he is passive, he turtles up if the guy in front of him keeps fighting, and he tires late. Pacquiao will thrive in there.

If Clottey used all of his physical tools, he could very well win this fight...but he won't because he doesn't. His head gets in the way of all that.

For all the obvious reasons, Pac looks like he should win on points. But it's possible that Clottey's short/quick/accurate/heavy counter shots are going to be the most effective punch that Pac's faced since JMM's counters. And if Pac's not able to jump in and jump out, Pac's going to be in for a long night against a much bigger man.

I think Arum is smart enough to know that anyone who can effectively counter Pac has a good chance at winning which is the only reason I tend to believe that the judges will give close rounds to Pac.

Clottey's short shots are most effective when you sit on the inside with him...Pac won't do that. Sure, Clottey will do some things in there early, but soon he will slow down as he gets a little tired, and grow increasingly passive as Pac continues to throw and bounce around. Pac will get the close rounds for a slew of reasons...he is the star, he will be the frenetic one in there, he will be busier...

I like Clottey as a fighter, but he is not going to change here...in the end, he will lose a decision because he gets out worked.

Marg's obviously much slower than Pac, but Clottey's early counters in that fight are what I'm referring to - pure counter shots. He did some of that against Judah as well, but I like the Marg comparison more because Marg kept coming forward like Pac will whereas Clottey had to chase Judah around. Clottey, like Winky, is best when he is allowed to counter rather than chase an opponent. I don't see Clottey having to chase Pac around the ring at all in this fight - except for maybe the late rounds.

And I also think Clottey is going to counter to Pac's chest which could slow the smaller man down more than usual in those late rounds.

As much as people think Clottey's passive/defensive style is tailor made for Pac, I also think Pac's offensive style plays right into Clottey's game. Speed kills, but size matters!

I don't really see any parallel between the Margarito fight and what Pacquiao will do. Margarito plods straight forward slowly from a conventional stance and is easy to land on...Pac is a southpaw, darts in and out with the best set of legs in the game, feints with his feet, and is not only far more difficult to hit - but he is even more difficult to read. I think Clottey's counters work well if you are willing to sit on the inside, throw one punch at a time, or walk straight to him...Pac doesn't do any of those things..

If you think the Margarito fight offers any clues here, that is likely where our assessments diverge. I see no similarities between the fighters or their plan of attack.

The similarities between Marg and Pac begin and end with their basic style which is to attack and to throw big shots when they get inside. Obviously Pac is a different level of speed and angles and he gets out as quickly as he gets in (and obviously Marg is much bigger and has the better chin). My point is that Clottey will be able to remain relatively flat footed and will have opportunities to pic Pac off when he darts in and out rather than having to chase him around - which, on paper, is exactly the right kind of opponent for Clottey's style. The less Clottey needs to rely on footwork in a fight the better. And Clottey is definitely the best counterpuncher Pac's faced since JMM.

And I think that style wise, the most dangerous kind of fighter for Pac would be an excellent counterpuncher. It's the same reason Pac loses to Floyd every day of the week.

Clottey will get hurt by seemingly not too hard punches from Pac. Kinda like Cotto with the looks on his face "What the fuck just hit me?". Answer: An ordinary powered but left cross-uppercut hybrid.

But Pac doesn't really just get inside and then throw big shots...he feints the hell out of you to create an opening and shoots very quickly, and when he lets the left go, fighters who think they are out of range aren't. The extension on it is almost freakish.

Clottey doesn't really pick off shots and return fire, he waits for you to finish and then throws. Clottey isn't going to time Pac coming in either...it's not what he does.

While I agree that walking Pac down behind a jab is a recipe for disaster, I also think sitting back and waiting for him to stop before returning fire will merely net you giving away rounds. If Clottey had the mentality of Marquez, this fight would be real tough on Pac...but he doesn't, nor is his right as fast and the junior lightweight JMM, nor is he as skilled of a counter puncher.

For the first third of this fight this will be interesting, and then Pac's workrate and energy will take over. Maybe Clottey wins a round in the middle or late after splitting the first 4.

The reason I referred to the Marg fight is that Clottey was picking Marg off perfectly for the first 3 rounds (until he broke his hand) and took Marg out of his rhythm. As long as Clottey is allowed to stay flat footed with the turtle defense, Pac's going to be waiting a while to get anything other than body shots or elbows for his feints. Clottey has to throw counters early and often and it's possible/probable that he gets tired in the mid to late rounds (I think he should be a 2-1 underdog here). But I also think that it's possible that Clottey's counters are sharper/quicker/and heavier than Pac thinks and I don't think Clottey is going to have to throw (or be in a position to throw) many combinations early in the fight to make his mark. The key is taking Pac out of his rhythm and slowing him down.

Ok...but it goes back to at least my view that any action in the Margarito fight offers zero as to what to expect in this fight based upon the fact that Margarito and Pac are about as different as can be in there. Clottey's didn't break his hand in that fight either, while he turned to the camera and press row to announce that he was hurt - he did not suffer a broken hand...did he even suffer a hairline? A lot of that goes back to Clottey's tendency to turtle up, or for the dog in him to come out - it happened against Cotto when he complained about his knee.

Pac will happily take the body...or he will feint, Clottey will flinch with the turtle D, and as soon as he tries to get a look, Pac will fire. Cotto landed up the middle on Clottey, Pac will...and I just do not see how sitting back is going to take Pac out of his rhythm. Add to it the fact that Clottey tires late, and I do not see it.

Sorry man, but this is two fights in a row that betting against Pac is going to lose you money.

Well, I bet against him with DLH too (and I lost even more money betting on Clottey-Cotto, which was blatant corruption and shame on me for betting against a big money Arum fighter in an Arum controlled event) and at some point I'm going to be right. God Damn it, I also lost a nice little pile on the Pac-JMM rematch - another blatant robbery!

The truth is that the spreads in boxing should be enough to discourage any serious thinker from placing any bets, but the thing is that so much of betting is determined by enthusiasm rather than intellect that I can't help but believe there can be some easy money made. Maybe the thing to do is to just give up any youthful idealistic perceptions of the sport and just always bet with the promoters (particularly Arum and King). Fuck it, I really hope I'm right here. And I do happen to think that you're underestimating Clottey's counterpunching skills. This won't be any kind of 4-1 cakewalk for Pac.

Don't do it, Sal...

The Happy Go Lucky African will be there to get paid...not to win.

Easy money can be made...but not on this fight and not when you are going with exuberance over intellect. Plenty of odds will offer terrific value, and plenty of odds won't. Is there value here? Sure...there is...but not enough to bet on a guy who has sat back and willingly allowed his opponent to take the fight from him when he could have won...all because things got tough in there.

I say 116-112 decision for Pac here that is completely just. Clottey is what he is, and his willingness to be passive prevents him from being that much better...and something like that is harder to change than just a physical bad habit.

Sorry, bro...you are going to be out some change again in less than two weeks.

LOL! There is already a level playing field when it comes to betting. And people still complain like Gayweather.

First of all, Clottey won the Cotto fight so I can't agree with your assessment. I don't see any possible way that anyone could have given Clottey less than 7 rounds. That was a corrupt decision - as was the JMM-Pac 2. The thing both fights had in common was that the underdog was dismissed too easily by the oddsmakers unless they priced in the notion that the fix was in.

And I think his hand was definitely hurting him badly in the Marg fight, so I'm not as sold on the notion that "the hitter" is really "the quitter". He should have been more aggressive late with Cotto, but I don't think it should have cost him that fight.

Anyway, it's only money.

I scored the fight 114-113 for Clottey (7-5, minus one point for the KD)...I was neither surprised, nor troubled by the decision. I scored Pac - JMM2 for Pac by a point or two, I do not remember my card. Both fights were close in my view, but neither was corrupt. Corrupt was Guzman - Funeka...corrupt was Valuev - Holyfield...but these were close, tightly contested battles, that in both cases went to the aggressor.

Clottey is not a quitter...he just turtles up and gets passive in there. He knew that nothing he did was going to slow Margarito, so he found an excuse and announced it on live TV to the camera, and to press row. Was his hand hurting him? Maybe...I am sure it was sore and in pain...but it was not severely injured. Boxing is the hurt business, so if you do not want to fight through pain and ignore it - odds are, you will lose big fights, and that is what happens with Clottey. His head gets in the way when he starts to tire.

Clottey will find a way NOT to win this fight. Once he realizes that Pacquiao can eat his punches and keep coming, Clottey will look for an excuse. Whether it's his hands or knees... he will find an excuse.

Well Arum controls Clottey, not sure how much more or longer he has control over Clottey, but that is enough of control. Much like football coaches that have good football players who are still under contract, though there is friction between them, they sometimes let them rot in the stands by not playing them.
Just not doing the right thing by them is sometimes enough, and rewarding them for doing what is expected.



I see where you are coming from JD, and usually I am not big on conspiracy theory but in this case everything happened to quick, Clottey usually wouldn't be a logical choice for anyone just after a $100million dollar fight was negotiated.
I don't think this is a type of fix where Clottey will take a dive or anything like that, I also don't think that he was told directly to lose. I just kind of picture it where they probably would have indirectly said that, mentioned he will be getting more chances if it results in a loss and so on. Just basically got it stuck in his head that Pacquiao is going to win.
Like I said, I see what you are saying and I am not big on conspiracy theories, but I just think Clottey is there to be competitive and lose the fight.

Fitz,

I don't know. Clottey may not be a logical choice for 99.99% of fighters out there. But against Pacquiao anyone is a logical choice as long as it will still bring enough money. Or less money for lesser risk.

Dear torvix,

You were once a poster that people loved to hate, people found you enjoyable (I know I did) even though you trolled. You were that guy in a group that everyone maybe picked on, but you took it well and laughed and I'm sure people had a soft spot for you still as I did. Like I said, you were that guy that people loved to hate.
You now completely suck shit, you are fast becoming a guy that people don't 'love' to hate, they just hate. You troll every thread rather than just a select few, you don't debate or argue with people, you just make generic statements and insinuate things and don't initiate in actual discussion.
You are now becoming really, really terrible. If you are just a gimmick that is supposed to act like a retard I retract everything I said and you are doing a great job with the gimmick. If you aren't, once again you suck shit. The most tragic part about this is, you are now posting with a little more momentum in the last couple of months, some momentum that you think you gained somewhere in the last couple of months which would be you just being delusional. The only momentum you have gained is spiralling down, heading right towards the bottom. There is only one way to go for shit and you are heading that way at a very fast rate.

Yours truly

Your nemesis Fitz

Sorry Fitz, but I don't post shit unless told by experts to post shits. I have posted quality posts when debating with someone. I posted that Hopkins' on mild use of HGH. You can argue with that. There's evidence according to standards set forth in this site.

It's really hard for experts like you to accept that some trolls post reasons in this board that will be hard for experts like you to argue.

My last post was about "anybody" (implied:besides any GBP fighter of course) being a logical choice for Pacquiao... You were pissed off because it's indeed the truth. Unless you think that Williams is a logical choice. Or you want to go back to the PED issues with Pac.

Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!

Your "nemesis",

Tovix2000