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mitukczuk
Ok, the task is simple. As we have a week or so till the fight happens, I think it's high time for us to break it down a bit.
I would like to see some realistic and more detailed predictions of how this fight will end up. You may add some kind of a rd by rd if you feel as doing it.


The way I see it, I think Floyd will come out strong, counter punching and applying pressure. I don't see him jabbing much in this fight. He'll stand in the pocket in the begining rounds and after he figure Cotto out I see him doing something similar to what he did to Gatti.

Cotto on the other hand, will be jabbing and going to the body. The jab will land a few times throughout the fight. Somewhere during the middle rounds I see him landing a left hook that will get crowds attention, but it will not be enough to get Floyd off of him. Later on, his face will be swollen (not blody) and the speed of Floyd will be the ultimate fight ender.

The result ? I am actually leaning towards corner stoppage after an embarassing 10th/11th round where Cotto will get tagged beyond recognition.

It is hard for me to see it that way, but the closer the fight is and the more I see from Floyd and Cotto, the more I am convinced this will be a mismatch.
I like Cotto a lot. He is a great champion, boxer and guy and I keep him very high on my all time favorites list, but he is matched with 'someone else'.

How do you see it ?
daprofessor
this fight will be a chess match and probably won't open up until the mid to late rounds. i can't see floyd putting pressure on cotto. cotto putting pressure on floyd will only lead to his demise. there will be a lot of cat and mouse back and forth with both fighters having their moments. early...the fight is cotto's. late the fight is floyds. the fight will go the distance.

floyd by dec.
Cheesey1
Probably what DaProfessor said, but Floyd's accuracy could take its toll. I went off the deep end and picked Mayweather by TKO.
mgrover
if he applies pressure early on like in the ortiz fight it could easily be a late stoppage, or even mid stoppage depending on how cottos face looks, but if he sits back and gives away the first few rounds i see a wide decision.
haqtiq
I see Mayweather coming out strong, him being fairly active as of late. I think he is going to want to put on a show, maybe not early, say first 2 rounds to get Cotto's timing down. In typical Mayweather fashion in round 3 we will see his exact gameplan for Cotto, and he should start to dominate pretty much every round.

I see Cotto trying to draw Mayweather in to attempt to counter punch, and this is where the fight will end for Cotto, going to the ropes taking big body shots, getting chopped down over 12 rounds. Unless he decides to quit, and I give Cotto more credit than that, but I wouldn't be shocked.

But I picked Wide Dec Mayweather.
sduck
Cotto will be the one mostly coming forward. Floyd will let Cotto lead first, counter him with straight rights and will mostly lead with a left hook and a jab to the body. He will also jab to the head, but it won't be as successful. Floyd will also let Cotto back him to the ropes, to set up the check left hook that he uses to get off the ropes. Cotto will get some hits in (probably lead hooks), everyone hits Floyd, but Cotto doesn't hit hard enough to change this fight in his direction, especially at this weight. It will be a competitive fight altogether, but Cotto will be getting hit at will and will gas out by round 7 to a late stoppage, he doesn't clinch and will stop punching all together. Cotto will NOT be Gatti'd, but will be Bruseles'd except with a later stoppage.

P.S. God I love Cotto's combination setups. Probably the only thing I don't like about Floyd is that he mostly doesn't like to setup relentless combinations.
mitukczuk
Maybe I went to far with that Gatti thing now when I think about it. Getting Bruseles'd is much more likely for Cotto. Performance against Gatti was phenomenal and Floyd's approach has changed a bit since then.

I am still saying it will be 10/11th round corner stoppage though.

Gotta say, not even De la Hoya vs. Mayweather had me so pumped ! Really looking forward to this fight.
Slumpage
Cotto doesn't clinch, its like its against the rules for Puerto Rican fighters or some shit... I think that's gonna get him stopped. Cotto does tire, so by like round 7-8, Floyd should just start landing way too many flush shots for Cotto's corner to let it continue. People talk about Floyd not throwing combos, i recall a good few being launched at Ortiz. Knowing how Cotto moves and adding his clinch refusal into the mix, I can forsee a few wobbly moments for Cotto along the ropes whilst he's "not clinching"..
Cshel86
We're gonna see shades of the old Cotto next weekend. I like how some guys make it seem like Miguel is gonna go in there and lay down, at least that's what I've been reading (in other places) and hearing people say. I like Cotto's "puncher's chance" in this fight, and I believe he'll make a significant impact.

Jesus...what are the betting odds for this fight? Are they at 10-1 right now? Who knows, but seriously, some guys are serially overrating Floyd's skills going into this fight, and that lets me know who the real fans are, and the ones who are aimlessly on the Money Mayweather bandwagon.

Need not forget that anything can happen in a fight, and it only takes one punch to either change the trajectory of a fight, or end it on the spot. Shane gave Floyd "a chance" to adjust because he was too eager to finish him off.

Shit, guys act like Floyd did something so amazing in that fight when Shane hurt him, the naked eye shows anybody with logics (not driven by bias) that he did the same shit that ANY other fighter is supposed to do when they get hurt...clinch, get on your bike, take a knee, or a combination of the 3...but again, you can point out the bandwagon fans when they add that extra mustard onto his recovery in that round.

If the odds continue to aimlessly rise, then the chances of some freakish shit happening, will increase as well. How many fights have we (hardcore fans) seen over the past year(s), end in a weird fashion because one guy is supposed to beat the other guy? Just think about it...

Floyd is supposed to win this fight, but that doesn't automatically give him the W off top. I have Cotto by a freakish shot that throws the whole fight, before the 5th round. If not, then Mayweather wins storyline will continue. I wont be mad if he wins, but people not giving Cotto a chance at all, is making me bet against Floyd.

Think about it, Floyd will more than likely lose before he hangs 'em up (however the retirement plays out)...will it be Pacquiao that hands him his first defeat? As of late, the answer to that would be "no". Will it be someone who we least expect? Hasn't it always been that way in the sport?
mitukczuk
QUOTE (Cshel86 @ Apr 27 2012, 11:07 AM) *
We're gonna see shades of the old Cotto next weekend. I like how some guys make it seem like Miguel is gonna go in there and lay down, at least that's what I've been reading (in other places) and hearing people say. I like Cotto's "puncher's chance" in this fight, and I believe he'll make a significant impact.

Jesus...what are the betting odds for this fight? Are they at 10-1 right now? Who knows, but seriously, some guys are serially overrating Floyd's skills going into this fight, and that lets me know who the real fans are, and the ones who are aimlessly on the Money Mayweather bandwagon.

Need not forget that anything can happen in a fight, and it only takes one punch to either change the trajectory of a fight, or end it on the spot. Shane gave Floyd "a chance" to adjust because he was too eager to finish him off.

Shit, guys act like Floyd did something so amazing in that fight when Shane hurt him, the naked eye shows anybody with logics (not driven by bias) that he did the same shit that ANY other fighter is supposed to do when they get hurt...clinch, get on your bike, take a knee, or a combination of the 3...but again, you can point out the bandwagon fans when they add that extra mustard onto his recovery in that round.

If the odds continue to aimlessly rise, then the chances of some freakish shit happening, will increase as well. How many fights have we (hardcore fans) seen over the past year(s), end in a weird fashion because one guy is supposed to beat the other guy? Just think about it...

Floyd is supposed to win this fight, but that doesn't automatically give him the W off top. I have Cotto by a freakish shot that throws the whole fight, before the 5th round. If not, then Mayweather wins storyline will continue. I wont be mad if he wins, but people not giving Cotto a chance at all, is making me bet against Floyd.

Think about it, Floyd will more than likely lose before he hangs 'em up (however the retirement plays out)...will it be Pacquiao that hands him his first defeat? As of late, the answer to that would be "no". Will it be someone who we least expect? Hasn't it always been that way in the sport?


You got a point there. But come on, its just an innocent thread trying to see people's opinion. I said in another thread that there is a serious chance that Cotto will stun the world. He is more than capable of that.

The way I see things is, that Cotto in his last 3 fights fought Foreman, Mayorga and Margarito..neither of these guys is an A+ or A fighter. B at best with Mayorga being the D level beast. I think he has been very carefully handled after Pacquiao and that will be the difference. Cotto as of late is Cotto untested, Cotto who gets hit a lot but Cotto who is looking good and comfortable, which may be the reason why people see him victorious.

What Floyd did in Mosley fight was as you said, a good survival instinct. One could say that it was the basic thing to do. I don't see it as anything so special and I am not creating my prediction based on that.

It's not that Cotto is not capable of surprise and I don't give him a chance, it's just that after I saw what Floyd is able to do to an A+ fighter in form of Marquez (I don't care about the weight, things like that should not happen to a fighter Marquez's caliber imo no matter who he fights) I think there is much bigger chance of seeing a surprise in form of another mismatch of skills.

If Cotto wins, I'll be as happy as if Floyd won. That's why I can't wait to see this fight!
Maybe it will be competitive, maybe we get a draw or a TKO win for Cotto. It doesn't matter, these are JUST predictions.
mgrover
Yes but realistically thats how the fight will end up, if only Cotto fought Canelo before hand, score cards will probably end up something like 117-113 and 116-114 twice for mayweather am still wondering if i should bother staying in for that fight
Cshel86
QUOTE (mitukczuk @ Apr 27 2012, 01:02 PM) *
You got a point there. But come on, its just an innocent thread trying to see people's opinion.

Oh no, you're good. Believe me, it's not a knock against you or the thread, not complaints there. I was speaking on behalf of what I've been hearing and reading elsewhere about the fight.

I was talking about what I read on other forums, on comment section of articles, on radios shows, and so forth. In that sense, you're straight, I was just speaking about things like, "Cotto is gonna get Gatti'd" "Cotto doesn't stand a chance" "This fight will be a blowout"...just excerpts of some of the garbage that I've been hearing. laugh.gif
mitukczuk
Well, I took that Gatti statement down as I realized that it really is a bit too much. (And don't get me wrong I am not comparing Gatti to Cotto and vice versa) I have been reading a ton of comments and articles myself and people really see the fight kind of one-sidedly. Although I am still standing behind my corner stoppage prediction, I can imagine the fight going the distance.... or whatever else the result it may be. And I am 100% sure Cotto will have his moment in the fight, how big we are yet to see.

I am just a really excited fight fan at the moment! Great two weeks of boxing.
daprofessor
QUOTE (sduck @ Apr 27 2012, 02:08 AM) *
Cotto will be the one mostly coming forward. Floyd will let Cotto lead first, counter him with straight rights and will mostly lead with a left hook and a jab to the body. He will also jab to the head, but it won't be as successful. Floyd will also let Cotto back him to the ropes, to set up the check left hook that he uses to get off the ropes. Cotto will get some hits in (probably lead hooks), everyone hits Floyd, but Cotto doesn't hit hard enough to change this fight in his direction, especially at this weight. It will be a competitive fight altogether, but Cotto will be getting hit at will and will gas out by round 7 to a late stoppage, he doesn't clinch and will stop punching all together. Cotto will NOT be Gatti'd, but will be Bruseles'd except with a later stoppage.

P.S. God I love Cotto's combination setups. Probably the only thing I don't like about Floyd is that he mostly doesn't like to setup relentless combinations.


wow. u are giving cotto absolutely no credit.
daprofessor
QUOTE (mitukczuk @ Apr 27 2012, 04:50 AM) *
Maybe I went to far with that Gatti thing now when I think about it. Getting Bruseles'd is much more likely for Cotto. Performance against Gatti was phenomenal and Floyd's approach has changed a bit since then.

I am still saying it will be 10/11th round corner stoppage though.

Gotta say, not even De la Hoya vs. Mayweather had me so pumped ! Really looking forward to this fight.



gatti and bruselles were no where near cotto's level. u guys are way off.
mitukczuk
QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 01:55 PM) *
gatti and bruselles were no where near cotto's level. u guys are way off.


I am not comparing Cotto to neither of the two. I just can imagine a similar outcome. Come on, am I not clear enough ? How many times do I have to say that I GIVE COTTO A CHANCE and that I AM A FAN OF HIS biggrin.gif
daprofessor
QUOTE (mitukczuk @ Apr 27 2012, 02:02 PM) *
I am not comparing Cotto to neither of the two. I just can imagine a similar outcome. Come on, am I not clear enough ? How many times do I have to say that I GIVE COTTO A CHANCE and that I AM A FAN OF HIS biggrin.gif


i'm not saying u aren't a fan....but when u say..."Getting Bruseles'd is much more likely for Cotto." u are clearly selling him very very short. laugh.gif
mitukczuk
QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 03:48 PM) *
i'm not saying u aren't a fan....but when u say..."Getting Bruseles'd is much more likely for Cotto." u are clearly selling him very very short. laugh.gif


Well yeah....getting Bruseles'd is much more likely for Cotto, because getting Gatti'd that's too much (Cotto is too good for that). Actually I think I am cuting him a slack by that statement, man....don't get me wrong. I just think there is a chance it will end up like that...nothing more...'Like I said before' it's one of the possibilities I can imagine.

Cshel86
So 10 people have Floyd knocking Miguel out, and Im the only person that believes Cotto can stop Mayweather by TKO? Interesting...

Best believe, no matter how much the media hates Floyd, they wont let him lose this one on the cards, so Miguel has to go for the knockout. The "megafight" is still in the back of everyone's mind, so again, no way in hell they let Cotto walk away the victor in this one...he has to TAKE IT!
mitukczuk
QUOTE (Cshel86 @ Apr 27 2012, 04:34 PM) *
So 10 people have Floyd knocking Miguel out, and Im the only person that believes Cotto can stop Mayweather by TKO? Interesting...

Best believe, no matter how much the media hates Floyd, they wont let him lose this one on the cards, so Miguel has to go for the knockout. The "megafight" is still in the back of everyone's mind, so again, no way in hell they let Cotto walk away the victor in this one...he has to TAKE IT!


Don't stop believing, man. It would be awesome!!!


Speaking about the media and scorecards, I was surprised as hell when he won split d against Oscar. Rightfully (should have been UD though) but surprisingly! Just a little off topic thought...
Cshel86
QUOTE (mitukczuk @ Apr 27 2012, 05:45 PM) *
Don't stop believing, man. It would be awesome!!!


Speaking about the media and scorecards, I was surprised as hell when he won split d against Oscar. Rightfully (should have been UD though) but surprisingly! Just a little off topic thought...

laugh.gif

Oscar basically passed the torch after that fight, and it's obvious that Oscar didn't have too many big names to fight after that. I remember him mentioning a Margarito fight, but he shit his pants after Toney buried Miguel.

As for that split decision, they had to make it look interesting...they knew Oscar wouldn't beat Floyd clearly (due to the skill difference), but they weren't going to let Oscar go out like a bitch either. laugh.gif
mitukczuk
You got a point there.
It's terrible to think about how little of boxing is the actual boxing...

Back to the topic at hand, I am surprised so many people see a TKO...When I was creating this thread I thought I would be the only one mad enough to see it happening....
daprofessor
QUOTE (Cshel86 @ Apr 27 2012, 04:34 PM) *
So 10 people have Floyd knocking Miguel out, and Im the only person that believes Cotto can stop Mayweather by TKO? Interesting...

Best believe, no matter how much the media hates Floyd, they wont let him lose this one on the cards, so Miguel has to go for the knockout. The "megafight" is still in the back of everyone's mind, so again, no way in hell they let Cotto walk away the victor in this one...he has to TAKE IT!


i believe that's highly possible.
sduck
QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 02:53 PM) *
wow. u are giving cotto absolutely no credit.

More like you think too highly of Cotto. He has too many flaws. Doesn't clinch, gasses out and stops punching when outclassed. Flat-footed, no head movement, average speed. The only things Cotto has going for him is that he has solid boxing skill, and he takes punches decently. Floyd outclasses him in every way. It's going to be a competitive fight because Floyd can't just walk through the guy, but if he lets his hands go, Cotto will be stopped by round 10-12. What I mean by he'll get Bruseles'd is that Floyd will fight this fight similar to how he fought Bruseles because of their similar styles. Bruseles did put up a fight, but was eventually outclassed and stopped, which will happen to Cotto. Cotto won't be brought down by hard body punches, but he'll stop punching and the ref or the corner will stop the fight. People saying Cotto will be Gatti'd are the ones going WAY too far.
daprofessor
QUOTE (sduck @ Apr 27 2012, 07:48 PM) *
More like you think too highly of Cotto. He has too many flaws. Doesn't clinch, gasses out and stops punching when outclassed. Flat-footed, no head movement, average speed. The only things Cotto has going for him is that he has solid boxing skill, and he takes punches decently. Floyd outclasses him in every way. It's going to be a competitive fight because Floyd can't just walk through the guy, but if he lets his hands go, Cotto will be stopped by round 10-12. What I mean by he'll get Bruseles'd is that Floyd will fight this fight similar to how he fought Bruseles because of their similar styles. Bruseles did put up a fight, but was eventually outclassed and stopped, which will happen to Cotto. Cotto won't be brought down by hard body punches, but he'll stop punching and the ref or the corner will stop the fight. People saying Cotto will be Gatti'd are the ones going WAY too far.


flat footed? no head movement? average speed? doesn't clinch? stops punching when outclassed?

either u don't know what ur watching or u just don't want to give him his credit. i can provide videos that illustrate all the things u accuse him of not doing.

brusselles isn't a fraction of the fighter that cotto is. brusselles couldn't touch floyd. best believe....cotto will put hands on floyd.
haqtiq
QUOTE (sduck @ Apr 27 2012, 08:48 PM) *
More like you think too highly of Cotto. He has too many flaws. Doesn't clinch, gasses out and stops punching when outclassed. Flat-footed, no head movement, average speed. The only things Cotto has going for him is that he has solid boxing skill, and he takes punches decently. Floyd outclasses him in every way. It's going to be a competitive fight because Floyd can't just walk through the guy, but if he lets his hands go, Cotto will be stopped by round 10-12. What I mean by he'll get Bruseles'd is that Floyd will fight this fight similar to how he fought Bruseles because of their similar styles. Bruseles did put up a fight, but was eventually outclassed and stopped, which will happen to Cotto. Cotto won't be brought down by hard body punches, but he'll stop punching and the ref or the corner will stop the fight. People saying Cotto will be Gatti'd are the ones going WAY too far.


Whats funny is I was about to say the exact same thing in my own words. Hatton and Cotto were at the Corrales fight, it's etched in Hattons memory and we saw the results. It's etched in Cotto's memory, and we will see the results.

The calibur of fighter is simply different. Mayweather without a doubt is the prime "Roy Jones" of now, fighting guys and making them look like nobody. I cant question Floyd looking bad, he does not have a clear cut history of failure. Cotto does not either, but when odds are stacked he does crumble. History has spoke these words via PPV already.

What can Cotto do aside from have that proverbial "Punchers Chance"? The ONLY thing he has going for him that could change the path of the fight is his uber-jab, and if it works.. FUCK yea Cotto, but do any of us LOGICALLY see Mayweather falling prey to a simple jab? He has like 2-3 counters for it.

Unless Money gets old or something is wrong with him moving up in weight. This is the intro song to Arturo Gatti from Mayweather "Another Ones Bites the Dust".

Thats from a Boxing fan.
daprofessor
QUOTE (haqtiq @ Apr 27 2012, 08:04 PM) *
Whats funny is I was about to say the exact same thing in my own words. Hatton and Cotto were at the Corrales fight, it's etched in Hattons memory and we saw the results. It's etched in Cotto's memory, and we will see the results.

The calibur of fighter is simply different. Mayweather without a doubt is the prime "Roy Jones" of now, fighting guys and making them look like nobody. I cant question Floyd looking bad, he does not have a clear cut history of failure. Cotto does not either, but when odds are stacked he does crumble. History has spoke these words via PPV already.

What can Cotto do aside from have that proverbial "Punchers Chance"? The ONLY thing he has going for him that could change the path of the fight is his uber-jab, and if it works.. FUCK yea Cotto, but do any of us LOGICALLY see Mayweather falling prey to a simple jab? He has like 2-3 counters for it.

Unless Money gets old or something is wrong with him moving up in weight. This is the intro song to Arturo Gatti from Mayweather "Another Ones Bites the Dust".

Thats from a Boxing fan.


wow. the only thing floyd and roy have in common is that they are very good at picking opposition they can beat. roy eventually made a wrong pick with tarver. that can very well happen with floyd in this instance. cotto has a lot more than the jab and he's a waaaaaay better fighter than hatton or corrales. NO FIGHTER IS UNBEATABLE.
sduck
QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 09:02 PM) *
flat footed? no head movement? average speed? doesn't clinch? stops punching when outclassed?

either u don't know what ur watching or u just don't want to give him his credit. i can provide videos that illustrate all the things u accuse him of not doing.

brusselles isn't a fraction of the fighter that cotto is. brusselles couldn't touch floyd. best believe....cotto will put hands on floyd.

Cotto is flat-footed. He can move when he needs to, but hes not quick on his feet, and mainly fights positioned. He has no head movement. Every boxer has those moments where they may dodge a punch here and there, or have fodder movement, but he has no solid head movement whatsoever. He isn't slow, but his speed is average. He's not as fast as Floyd's quickest opponents like Judah, Oscar, and Mosley. Uhh, he doesn't clinch. In any of his fights where hes holding, its the other guy initiating it, not him. He didn't willfully clinch with Margarito or Pacquiao, not once. He's only been outclassed by Margarito and Pacquiao so far, Margarito had loaded gloves and Pacquiao drained him 2 pounds, but the evidence shows when hes gassed out and done, he gives up the fight.
Actually Bruseles did hit Floyd numerous times with lead hooks, exactly what I expect Cotto to land (as I had stated that Cotto will land... maybe you missed it). What separates Cotto and Bruseles is that Cotto is a more solid boxer. Their styles are very identical.

QUOTE (haqtiq @ Apr 27 2012, 09:04 PM) *
Whats funny is I was about to say the exact same thing in my own words. Hatton and Cotto were at the Corrales fight, it's etched in Hattons memory and we saw the results. It's etched in Cotto's memory, and we will see the results.

The calibur of fighter is simply different. Mayweather without a doubt is the prime "Roy Jones" of now, fighting guys and making them look like nobody. I cant question Floyd looking bad, he does not have a clear cut history of failure. Cotto does not either, but when odds are stacked he does crumble. History has spoke these words via PPV already.

What can Cotto do aside from have that proverbial "Punchers Chance"? The ONLY thing he has going for him that could change the path of the fight is his uber-jab, and if it works.. FUCK yea Cotto, but do any of us LOGICALLY see Mayweather falling prey to a simple jab? He has like 2-3 counters for it.

Unless Money gets old or something is wrong with him moving up in weight. This is the intro song to Arturo Gatti from Mayweather "Another Ones Bites the Dust".

Thats from a Boxing fan.

I think you mean the Gatti fight

QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 09:08 PM) *
wow. the only thing floyd and roy have in common is that they are very good at picking opposition they can beat. roy eventually made a wrong pick with tarver. that can very well happen with floyd in this instance. cotto has a lot more than the jab and he's a waaaaaay better fighter than hatton or corrales. NO FIGHTER IS UNBEATABLE.

No fighter is unbeatable, but I don't see anyway Cotto can win this fight. Also, I don't see any fighter in this era that can beat Floyd to be very honest, not until age finally gets to him.
Cshel86
QUOTE (mitukczuk @ Apr 27 2012, 07:58 PM) *
I am surprised so many people see a TKO...When I was creating this thread I thought I would be the only one mad enough to see it happening....

I guess we'll see next weekend...

QUOTE (daprofessor @ Apr 27 2012, 08:21 PM) *
i believe that's highly possible.

Thank you...

QUOTE (sduck @ Apr 27 2012, 08:48 PM) *
Cotto won't be brought down by hard body punches

Care to explain how many fighters weren't brought down by hard body punches?
sduck
I don't understand what you mean. I don't think Floyd will KO Cotto with a body shot.
Cshel86
QUOTE (sduck @ Apr 28 2012, 02:55 AM) *
I don't understand what you mean. I don't think Floyd will KO Cotto with a body shot.

I was just making the point that anybody can be dropped or KO'd with a body shot...if it's timed right. I want to agree with you and say that Floyd wont KO Miguel with a body shot, but who knows...
Sunni6Killer
PBF wide decision.
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