QUOTE (Jack 1000 @ Jun 23 2012, 06:14 PM)
I think for Lopez/Ortiz, I will go for Ortiz by a close decision. I think the judges will be on-edge to try to be fair after Bradley-Pacquiao, so Delahoya's "house fighter" advantage might be neutralized a bit. Now is Victor gonna fight like against Berto in a FOTY type situation, OR is he gonna wanna run and hide and smile ala Delahoya if things don't go his way? (Mayweather?) Lopez has a great chance if the Ortiz that fought Mayweather shows up. If the Ortiz that fought Berto shows up, he'll win around 116-112.
On the other fight, I am gonna take Soto by SD, maybe controversial. Matthyssee almost ALWAYS comes out on the short end of the stick in one SD loss after another. So this is gonna be one of those 115-113 Soto, 115-113 Matthyssee and a two-wide 117-111 Soto type of outcome. It won't be the type of robbery associated with Bradley-Pacquiao, it will also come down to Lucus not being busy enough in close rounds, where Soto may be favored, but not outrageous in the results. Lucus just won't do enough again!
Good stuff Jack! Along with my theories of overtaining, overlooking, and mental lapses, you're correct. I think Ortiz will use his size advantage and try to bully Lopez. He actually came in bigger than the muscular Berto and had his way with him for most of the fight.
As for the possibility of Matthysse getting robbed, that TOTALLY slipped my mind, maybe because I didn't see this one going the distance. Another thing that you have to look at when you bring up the Matthysse robberies, is the fact that both of those guys (Judah and Alexander) are slick as shit and are both fast starters, Judah more so than Alexander.
Matthysse allowed Judah to bank those early rounds, then he beat Judah's ass in the middle rounds, and left the latter rounds in the air. That was my same assessment for the Alexander fight, but now that I went back and looked at it, they were going tit-fot-tat, problem is, again, Matthysse was a bit too relaxed early on in the fight (maybe because he wanted to be the counterpuncher).
Being the fact that he's been robber twice, he will more than likely start quick tonight. He HAS to be first, and follow up on any good shots that he places. All that we know about Matthysse is that he's a BIG puncher, but we haven't seen him stop anybody in the U.S., which could have served as his demise when it came down to the cards. No doubt that this fight tonight will be a war...while it lasts.