I believe Lopez is bigger than people realize. He fought Jessie Vargas a year ago, but the fight wasn't at 140...it was at 142, and Lopez hit 142 on the head. I believe he only put on 2 more lbs for the Ortiz fight, coming in at 144 lbs.
He's basically been a WW the whole time. Alvarez on the other hand, is a big 154 lber, and Im expecting him to come in fight night at 167-170, while Lopez may crack 156, while weighing in at 150. I hope to God that he isn't trying to hit 154 on the head, but if so, he better stick to the game plan.
I've never seen Canelo's inside game, but he'll surely need it in this one because Lopez likes to fight at close quarters. I've never seen Canelo bullied or moved around against his own will, and Lopez will be Man of the Year, if he's able to keep Canelo uncomfortable and unbalanced.
That equals less time for Canelo to sit down on a shot that will make Lopez see the little birdies. The moment Lopez decides to go into Mexican overdrive, we'll see him sustain shots that he "may" not be able to take all the way til the final bell.
I give Lopez 85% credit for the Ortiz fight. Why? He got hit way more than he was supposed to, even though he showed great head movements with most of Victor's hooks. He bullied the bully in a few rounds and spots of the fight. I wont give that much credit for power, because Ortiz's head movement is so shitty at times. So yes, I blame Victor's carelessness for the broken jaw, not so much as Lopez's power.
Lopez by UD (close), if he stays in Canelo's chest, keeps him off balance, and bullies him. Canelo by TKO in the mid rounds, if Lopez's heart and thirst to hurt Canelo, prevails. I'll be a man and stick with the Lopez close UD, instead of playing it safe. I'll take responsibility for anything going opposite of how I predicted.