From now until the 23rd of June, it seems like we're having big fight after big fight. We'll be having in ring appearances by Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao, Amir Khan, and Julio Cesar Chavez, just to name a few. So to begin breaking down the most hectic run of boxing we'll see this year, here's the next installment in this epic run of Potshot Picks.
Shane Mosley (+575) vs. Saul Alvarez (-950)
May 5, HBO Pay Per View (Undercard)
Potshot Picks: Alvarez UD12
Despite the fact that Alvarez is nearly a 10-to-1 favorite to beat Mosley, who is winless in three years, there is no doubt that he is facing the best opponent of his career and may have a tough go at it against the faded veteran. Mosley has looked awful over the course of his past three fights, but given that two of them were Pacquiao and Mayweather, it's intriguing to guess how much he really has left, especially against a limited and hittable opponent. Alvarez's spoon-fed opponents have been giving him a bit more trouble than he's expected, and logic dictates that if he struggled to look impressive against the likes of Alfonso Gomez and Kermit Cintron, then he will do the same against Mosley.
Though Mosley is talking a big game and says he's more comfortable at 154 than at 147, he's still going into the ring as the smaller man, and that hasn't worked out too well for him in the past. Winky Wright was able to beat Mosley because he was able to maul him thanks to his size. Ricardo Mayorga was also seemingly getting the better of him as well until Mosley landed enough leather to stop him in the final round. The real moment of truth is when Mosley nails Alvarez, as I expect him to do several times through the course of the fight, and how Alvarez reacts to the still heavy-handed former champion.
This fight should be interesting and may even be more competitive than the betting odds suggest, and it's safe to say that Mosley has a good chance of pulling off the upset. What works for Alvarez, who bears an uncanny resemblance to the Wendy's hamburger girl, is that the promoter and crowd are on his side and should he survive the rocky moments, a decision should be all but locked up. The real question though is how does a win over Shane Mosley prepare Alvarez for a potential Mayweather fight later this year?
Floyd Mayweather (-700) vs. Miguel Cotto (+500)
May 5, HBO Pay per View
Potshot Picks: Mayweather TKO9
If one thinks we've waited a while for Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather to fight, then it's safe to say that Mayweather and Cotto should have met an eternity ago. Mayweather/Cotto was first explored nearly seven years ago when both fighters were campaigning at 140 under Top Rank, but when Arum watched Mayweather destroy Arturo Gatti and Henry Bruseles, fighters who fought more or less like Cotto at the time, plans were scrapped until further notice. It took Cotto to leave Arum and Top Rank earlier this year to make this fight happen, evident to what really is holding back Mayweather/Pacquiao.
Conventional wisdom says that this will be about Cotto's power vs. Mayweather's speed, and on paper, it's easy to say, "Cotto has the clear advantage in power, winning his last three fights inside the distance." A closer look, however, reveals that the stoppages Cotto gained over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga, and Antonio Margarito in their rematch were all injury related.
Foreman's knee blew out early in the fight, and it took three rounds for Cotto to chase down the hobbling Foreman until the ref had enough. Mayorga was a live dog in their fight, even hurting Cotto a few times until suffering a broken hand in the final round. Margarito already went into their rematch blind and hittable, but it took 10 rounds until the ringside doctors called a halt to the contest.
Mayweather's speed and accuracy will be enough to overpower and frustrate Cotto in the earlier goings, and we all know that once Cotto gets frustrated, he throws the game plan out the window and tries to correct it by viciously strafing his opponent. When that happens, Mayweather will start finding a home for a straight-right to left-uppercut combination that'll hit Cotto enough times to make his wife cry and corner stop the fight.
That'll just about do it for this week, check out the next installment in which we'll dive into the Amir Khan/Lamont Peterson rematch. Bet safely and have fun!
Danny Howard can be reached for comments or questions at dhoward@fighthype.com, Facebook, or follow him on Twitter (@DBHOWARD126). Also don't miss an episode of FightHype Radio, the baddest two hours of boxing on the planet, starting at 8pm EST.