It's less than 48 hours before WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao defends his title against undefeated jr. welterweight champion Timothy Bradley. For many, the outcome of the fight is already etched in stone. A slight 3 to 1 favorite over his challenger, it's virtually a forgone conclusion that Pacquiao will look dominant in picking up the 55th victory of his career. Whether it's by knockout or decision is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that Pacquiao takes care of business on Saturday so everyone can get back to talking about the real fight that we've been waiting on for the past 3 years. The question, however, is can we actually look forward to that if Pacquiao does indeed beat Bradley?
- Forget about a Mayweather fight
Manny Pacquiao won't be any closer to fighting Floyd Mayweather than he was 3 years when they first tried to negotiate the fight. Bob Arum has made sure of that. A Bradley victory, no matter how dominant it may look, is not going to change the fact that Arum has made no real effort to discuss the possibility of the fight with either Al Haymon, Leonard Ellerbe, or Richard Schaefer, the only three men who have ever been authorized to negotiate the fight. If any combination of those four names (Arum, Haymon, Ellerbe, Schaefer) aren't involved at any point, then the fight isn't going to be made...it's as simple as that. Not to mention, with Pacquiao already expected to fight again in November and Mayweather currently serving his jail sentence, the likelihood of that fight happening next is non-existent. Instead expect Pacquiao to face [Insert Name of Top Rank Fighter Here]. - Pacquiao vs. Marquez IV in November
Let's face it, a fourth fight between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez is inevitable. After all, immediately after their third fight, Bob Arum was already promoting it. Just to refresh your memory..."I do fights in Mexico. There are a lot of angry Mexicans out there. I want a fourth fight. I want to be safe when I go to Mexico. My advice to all of the parties involved is for an immediate rematch. It was a great fight.," Arum would comment at the post-fight [Pacquiao vs. Marquez III] press conference. Arum also suggested the fight should take place in May [of 2012], telling Kevin Iole of Yahoo! Sports, "It was a great, great fight. I had Manny, but it was close, so why not bring them together again in May? It makes a lot of sense to do that." The only thing that's changed is the date. Expect Pacquiao vs. Marquez IV on November 10 at Cowboys Stadium. - Lower than expected PPV numbers
There's definitely a lack of buzz for this fight. I was surprised to be able to walk side-by-side with Manny Pacquiao past the food court in MGM Grand and yet nobody swarmed him for autographs or pictures. Maybe it was because he was walking too fast or maybe it was simply because the people just weren't boxing fans. Either way, judging from Arum's comments about not comparing the figures from this fight to Mayweather vs. Cotto, I'm guessing he's not expecting blockbuster numbers. Not to mention, the fact that the pay-per-view card is now going head-to-head with Game 7 between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics...well...that doesn't bode well. I still think they'll do good numbers...maybe somewhere between 800,000 and 1 million...but I just don't think we'll actually ever get a definitive answer from Arum. Expect him to tell us some fictional number between 1 and 1.25 million SEVERAL weeks after the event. - Stock will rise
If all goes according to plan, Pacquiao's stock will rise regardless of the performance. In Bradley, he faces a fighter whose style can make anyone look bad, so even if Pacquiao struggles somewhat and wins ugly, a win is a win, and a win over a young, hungry, undefeated challenger deserves credit. It's doubtful that Bradley will put on the same type of performance that Marquez did, so worst case scenario, Pacquiao should at least look better than he did last November, which means those that believed he might struggle with Mayweather will once again think he has a great chance of handing Mayweather his first defeat. That's the worst case scenario. If Pacquiao's dominant and blows Bradley away, a la his performance against Ricky Hatton, then his stock will rise exponentially. Either way, his stock isn't going to take the same type of hit it took after facing Marquez...unless, of course, he's awarded another controversial decision. - Whispers of retirement
As his interests outside of boxing continue to grow, once again we'll likely hear whispers of a possible retirement for Pacquiao. Despite the fact that he stated before the fight that he still has a few more in him, Pacquiao has previously put the idea of retirement out there before on several ocassions. Whether this fight is easy or tougher than expected, Pacquiao will continue to devote more time to religion and politics afterwards, which obviously means less time for boxing. Not to mention, after nearly 17 years in the sport, 60 fights, and world titles in 8 different divisions, what else is there to prove? A win over the undefeated Bradley might be a suitable replacement for Mayweather in his eyes, so the lure of retirement will grow.
[ Follow Ben Thompson on Twitter @fighthype ]