It's Monday. Welcome back for another edition of Observe and Fight, The Boxing Observer's compilation of observations and random thoughts from the week that was in boxing. Get caught up on some of the most recent events you may have missed out on, including a preview of the Mayweather vs. Maidana fight card, the successful returns of Wladimir Klitschko and Keith Thurman, the Lucas Matthysse vs. John Molina Jr. Fight of the Year candidate, and much more. Without further ado, check out the latest observations from the Boxing Observer, David Kassel.
Which star will shine the brightest in "The Moment" on Saturday night? Obviously, Floyd Mayweather is the headliner. He is the biggest star in combat sports and is the richest athlete (based on performance earnings, not endorsements) in sports. Win or lose, Mayweather will remain a star after this fight (I'm expecting a unanimous decision victory from Mayweather). However, Maidana may serve himself well in this fight because, I believe, Mayweather will not shy away from him and will stand in the pocket (like he did against Miguel Cotto). Maidana seems more at ease and at peace with himself than anyone I have seen in a long time. He's like a silent assasin, and that could spell danger if Mayweather is not careful. Even in a losing effort, Maidana may be able to make a case for himself as an elite welterweight if he has a strong showing against Mayweather. The undercard also features two star-studded names (Amir Khan and Adrien Broner), along with a few other fighters looking to establish themselves as superstars.
The co-feature fight has Amir Khan taking on tough veteran Luis Collazo. Anyone who thinks Collazo is out of his league for taking this fight is completely crazy. If Khan wins, and looks good doing it, he certainly becomes the frontrunner to face Mayweather in September. Collazo will lack the advantage in speed, and the last time he faced a fighter who was significantly faster than he was, he was robbed of a decision win against Andre Berto in 2009. Khan's best strategy is to throw combinations and jump out of harm's way. If he can do that, this fight may look a lot like Khan vs. Zab Judah. If Khan decides he wants to be brave and "give the fans a show", he may end up suffering the same fate as Victor Ortiz did against Collazo. Khan is certainly the favorite in the fight, but much like Ortiz, Khan is must-see television because you never know what you're going to get.
The co-co-feature fight sees Adrien Broner looking to make a successful ring return against Carlos Molina (not the one who is in immigration jail). This fight is tailor-made for Broner to make a successful comeback via knockout. While Molina has never been down before, he is not a big puncher and is a fighter who doesn't mind being hit. Molina hasn't fought since December 2012, when he lost to Khan, so ring rust will probably be an issue early on. Broner will be the bigger man in the ring and should impose his strength over Molina. Yet, Molina is not going to be a pushover, and Broner needs to show, from the opening bell, that he is the alpha male in the ring. If Broner can do that, I predict he will get a mid-to-late round stoppage. If Broner starts slow though, he'll give Molina confidence in the latter half of the fight.
Keith Thurman is a man on a mission, and very few look as if they can stop him. Thurman took some decent shots in his 3rd round technical decision win against Julio Diaz, Saturday night, after Diaz, who is tough as nails, didn't come out for the 4th round due to a rib injury. Thurman is looking better and better every time out, and he seems to be on a collision course with IBF welterweight champion Shawn Porter. I can honestly see Thurman, if he continues to win, getting a crack at Floyd Mayweather in 2015. Thurman has all the tools to be great and has progressively and systematically been moved along at the proper pace. This guy is the real deal, and all fighters better be ready for "One Time."
Can you believe thousands of fans paid to watch Wladimir Klitschko hold a sparring session? In reality, that is not what happened, but it might as well have been. Challenger Alex Leapai landed 10 punches...YES, 10 FREAKING PUNCHES...against the lineal heavyweight champion of the world. One day, somebody is going to beat Wladimir, but who will it be? I don't think the winner of May 10th's WBC heavyweight title fight between Bermane Stiverne and Chris Arreola is going to do it. Klitschko doesn't get the credit he deserves, but he is one of the top 5 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Get over it people! Remember when people thought Floyd Mayweather was boring? Nobody said he wasn't the best. Klitschko is one of the best and deserves our respect. The last man to beat Wladimir, Lamon Brewster, posted the following message on social media after Klitschko's win, "Lol... funny 2me I'm the last 2beat W. Klitz N 10 yrs but no fighter ever asked me 2help'em 2prepare. Ego's r a downfall of man!" The man does have a point.
Lucas Matthysse and John Molina Jr. produced a Fight of the Year candidate Saturday night! If you missed this war, you better watch it On Demand or on YouTube. Holy Cow! There were big bombs traded throughout the entire fight, and, while I think there will be another fight taking the cake for Fight of the Year later in 2014, it will certainly be remembered as an epic war. One thing I do believe I saw was vulnerability and technical weaknesses in Matthysse. Danny Garcia exposed some of those weaknesses last September, but Garcia is the top fighter at 140lbs. John Molina Jr. was not supposed to be competitive against "The Machine" and made it a tough fight. In the future, I don't see fighters trying to avoid Matthysse like they seemed to be doing in 2013. One fight I would love to see at 140lbs. is Broner vs. Matthysse. How about that Al Haymon?
Omar Figueroa was in deep on Saturday night. Jerry Belmontes had a great game plan and frustrated the WBC lightweight champion all night long. While I did have Figueroa winning the fight by a slight margin, he is going to have to go back to the drawing board before his next fight, whomever it may be against. Belmontes showed that movement will frustrate Figueroa, and he may have created a blueprint to beat the champion.
Why is Guillermo Jones still allowed to fight? In news that flew under the radar in the United States, but certainly not in Russia, over the weekend, Jones tested positive, once again, for a banned diuretic prior to his rematch with Denis Lebedev. It was the same substance Jones tested positive for after his 11th round KO win over Lebedev last May, prompting the WBA to strip Jones of the title. At some point, commissions around the world need to stop giving chances to athletes who constantly disrespect their sport. Guillermo Jones should never be licensed again, in any country, in my opinion. What a joke!
It was good to see Josesito Lopez get back on a winning streak. Lopez won his 2nd straight fight, Thursday night, courtesy of a 5th-round TKO of Aaron Martinez. Lopez is a tough customer and I want to see him in a big fight again soon.
How about the TV time referee Jack Reiss, received this week? Reiss was interviewed by Bernardo Osuna after the Lopez fight about the stoppage and was again interviewed by Jim Gray after the Thurman fight. Reiss is one of the best in the business and both stoppages were just.
We've got another candidate for Knockout of the Year! In case you missed Solo Boxeo Tecate because you were watching Showtime Championship Boxing (get a DVR for crying out loud), young prospect Saul Rodriguez scored a devastating 4th-round knockout of veteran Miguel Zamudio, which sent Zamudio's head straight backwards before he went through the bottom rope, all while his right leg bent backwards. It was a devastating barrage of punches and Zamudio will be lucky if he suffers no ill effects from that beating.
When are we going to start giving some love to the little men? On Wednesday, IBF 122lb. champion Kiko Martinez successfully defended his belt with a TKO over Hozumi Hasegawa in Japan as the co-featured attraction to WBC bantamweight champion Shunsuke Yamanaka's TKO win over Stephane Jamoye. Saturday night, unified flyweight titlist Juan Francisco Estrada forced Richie Mepranum to retire on his stool after the 9th round, while Hernan "Tyson" Marquez defeated John Mark Apolinario in the televised co-feature. The Estrada win sets up a clear-cut Fight of the Year candidate between he and Giovani Segura in a fight that any major network would be foolish not to televise. There is some serious leather being thrown in the lighter weight classes (and not just by Leo Santa Cruz and Guillermo Rigondeaux), and we'd better start paying attention because it's worth watching every second.
I have to selfishly state that I am excited to see professional boxing back in Indianapolis this Friday night! Indianapolis used to draw major fights to the city, including Roy Jones Jr. vs. Richard Hall and Vernon Forrest vs. Shane Mosley II. Former heavyweight champions Lamon Brewster, Chris Byrd, Riddick Bowe, Ray Mercer, and former multi-division champion James Toney are helping lead 4 Champs Promotions in bringing professional boxing back into the city which I reside. I'm extremely pumped I don't have to take a long car ride to see professional boxing action.
Kassim Ouma, what the hell were you thinking? The former champion was arrested for battery in Los Angeles last Friday for knocking a man out cold after the man made sexual advances toward Ouma. The incident was first reported by TMZ. Ouma may have nobody except himself to blame for this one. Reportedly, he randomly met the man, struck up a conversation, and went back to the man's home for a drink. That sounds an awful lot like one person was being led on while the other was completely oblivious to the situation. Allegedly, Ouma did politely decline the initial advance, but the other man continued to press, and when Ouma got up to leave, the altercation escalated. At the end of the day, this just proves the dangers of meeting a random person and going back to his/her home. You never know what can happen.
Thoughts and prayers go out to former super featherweight champion Carlos "El Famoso" Hernandez, who was bitten by a rattlesnake. At last check, Hernandez remains in the ICU in critical condition after the snake bite. We are all hopeful for a full recovery.
Each week, I feature an email from a fan on Observe and Fight. This week's email comes to us from Stephen D. regarding a potential Shawn Porter vs. Keith Thurman showdown...
"Hey David, I was wondering who you think would Win between Two Welterweights that are seemingly getting better in: Shawn "Showtime" Porter (24-0-1, 15 KOs) & Keith "One Time" Thurman (23-0, 21 KOs)? In a thriller, I see a somewhat EVEN bout entering the 8th Round. However, "One Time" gets a bit more aggressive & nails a Flush shot that quickly & unexpectedly sends Shawn Porter swiftly to the canvas. Porter briskly getting off the DECK indicating it was more of a Flash Knockdown) in Round 8. Down the stretch, Porter makes key adjustments and starts Boxing Beautifully down the Stretch to squeak out a Split-Decision (115-114) that Cries OUT for a Re-Match! The WINNER will automatically be in the Floyd Mayweather Jr. Sweepstakes & For Great reasoning. Thurman is probably the Hardest Hitting Welterweight since a Prime "Miguel Cotto" & that's Saying a Mouthful. However, Porter is oozing & brimming with Confidence after I told people he would Comfortably dominate - "The Magic Man" Paulie Malignaggi. Most Fans & Experts alike picked Paulie to Win, but I never Fell for the gimmick that because Paulie beat a shopworn - Zab "Super" Judah that he was READY for a Champion like "Showtime" Porter. In my Honest Opinion, Both of these Pugilists can BEAT: Timothy Bradley, Brandon "Bam Bam" Rios, Juan Manuel Marquez, Robert Gurrero, or Kell Brook. I'll ALSO take it a Step further & say Mayweather Jr. needs to Fight one of these TWO Boxers in his First bout in '2015.' It looks like "Money" will Fight Amir "King" Khan if he gets by Collazo on the May 3rd Undercard. To be quite Honest, Porter would beat Maidana almost the same way "King" Devon Alexander did. It might be harder because we seen Thurman briefly rocked against Soto Karras, but even he's getting better & would BEST Marcos. I'd DROOL if this fight would be the CO-Feature to the "Money" Mayweather Jr. September - Pay Per View Card. In any case, this is a Fight that can be made and the winner undoubtedly becomes a major player among the entire Boxing community!"
Thanks for the prediction, Stephen. To be honest, this fight seems like it's on a crash course to take place late in the year, possibly in early 2015 (maybe the first big fight of January). I made mention of it last week that it would be a wonderful co-feature fight for Mayweather's next bout in September. However, with Porter having to defend his belt against mandatory challenger Kell Brook in his next fight, unless Brook gets injured, that's the next step for Porter (in a fight which I believe Porter will win). I can easily see Thurman back in the ring sooner rather than later, possibly against a fighter such as Luis Carlos Abregu or Josesito Lopez. Both fighters are still a work in progress, but if I had to pick one to hang my hat on and say he would win the fight, I'd have to pick Thurman. Thurman has devastating power, and remember that he can also fight at junior middleweight where Porter was not as successful. Plus, Thurman is the much better boxer. The spot where Porter may have an advantage is in the chin department. Not to say that Thurman can't take a punch (because he took some vicious shots at the hands of Diego Chaves, Jesus Soto Karass, and Julio Diaz landed some strong leather as well). Porter is the stronger of the two fighters, but Thurman packs a bit more punch. I believe Thurman has a slight edge in the speed department as well. Yes, I think Porter is getting better, but I also think a fighter who can box, and bang, will beat Porter. That man is Thurman. It will definitely be a war whenever it happens, but I have to take Thurman by unanimous decision because of his ability to box and counter-punch. As far as both fighters beating the names on your list, I believe they would both beat Rios and Brook, but I wouldn't be so sure they can both beat Bradley, Marquez, and Guerrero. The latter 3 fighters are on much higher levels than Rios and Brook and are established champions. Let's not forget that Bradley and Porter are very similar except Bradley is a bit more of a ring technician. The winner of Porter vs. Brook would certainly be in contention for Mayweather in 2015.
That's all I've got for this week. Email any questions or comments to dkassel@fighthype.com and I will answer them throughout the week. Your email may be featured in the next "Observe and Fight." Follow me on Twitter @BoxingObserver, and be sure to "Like" The Boxing Observer on Facebook.
[ Follow David Kassel on Twitter @BoxingObserver ]