It's Monday. Welcome back for another edition of Observe and Fight, The Boxing Observer's compilation of observations and random thoughts from the week that was in boxing. Get caught up on some of the most recent events you may have missed out on, including a preview of Marquez vs. Alvarado, Bermane Stiverne crowned as the new WBC heavyweight champion, the Pacquiao vs. Bradley 2 pay-per-view numbers, final thoughts on Mayweather vs. Maidana, and much more. Without further ado, check out the latest observations from the Boxing Observer, David Kassel.
Marquez vs. Pacquiao 5 hangs in the balance this Saturday night. Nope, for those of you reading this, it is not a misprint. Juan Manuel Marquez is not fighting Manny Pacquiao, Saturday night. Instead, Marquez is fighting the rugged "Mile High" Mike Alvarado. Alvarado is coming off of a loss to Ruslan Provodnikov in October, while Marquez is coming off a loss to Timothy Bradley, also in October. After the pay-per-view numbers were released for Pacquiao vs. Bradley 2, it's easy to guess that Bob Arum is going to be willing to shell out big bucks to make Pacquiao vs. Marquez 5 because it may be the only fight he can put together that will produce over 1 million pay-per-view buys. However, that assumes Marquez beats Alvarado Saturday night. I expect him to do so, but crazier things have happened. Marquez vs. Pacquiao 5 is definitely not a guarantee because Marquez has stood his ground about not wanting a 5th fight, but if the money is right (I'm estimating at least $15 million guaranteed for Marquez), it will be hard to say no.
Marquez could win, and he still may not fight Pacquiao. Forget the rumors of Pacquiao vs. Canelo because that's not going to happen. The fight that makes the most sense, if Marquez chooses not to fight Pacquiao, is Pacquiao vs. Provodnikov. It's a tough fight, but a very winnable one for Pacquiao. I would personally love to see it.
What if Alvarado upsets Marquez? This one is easy. If Alvarado beats Marquez, we're looking at Pacquiao vs. Alvarado later this year, probably from Macau, China. It would easily be Alvarado's biggest payday, and Pacquiao already showed us he's willing to fight in Macau. While the money may not be as great coming from the United States, there is no doubting the financial push boxing is receiving in Macau, which has become a bigger and better version of Las Vegas. Reports are that Macau pulled in almost 4 times as much revenue as Vegas did last year, and it's only getting bigger. Pacquiao may not receive as much American money, but he'll be compensated well in China.
The Pacquiao vs. Bradley 2 pay-per-view numbers were very underwhelming. Bob Arum released his estimate of the numbers publicly stating that the fight produced between 750,000-800,000 buys in the United States. While that's nothing to scoff at, it certainly isn't the 1.2 million Arum had predicted (which he also stated publicly). It's hard to imagine that the numbers went down from the first fight (which produced 890,000 pay-per-view buys) considering Bradley technically won the first encounter. The weak undercard didn't help either. Granted, the fight generated about $49 million in pay-per-view buys, on top of the $7.8 million from the live gate. Put that together with sponsorships and overseas revenue from television and such and you're still looking at anywhere between $60-70 million, but it's not normal Pacquiao numbers, and that's why Top Rank is disappointed.
Anyone still agree that Mayweather vs. Pacquiao should be a 50/50 split? If anyone still thinks so, in the words of Roger Mayweather, "You don't know sh*t about boxing."
Congratulations to Bermane Stiverne on winning the WBC heavyweight title! I know, I know, most people don't really think Stiverne is worthy of being called a champion, but he is. He earned it by thoroughly dominating the normally iron-chinned, Chris Arreola Saturday night. Stiverne looked like he was toying with Arreola from the opening bell and was waiting for Arreola to make a mistake. He almost ended the fight in the 1st round, but waited until the 6th to put the green belt around his waist. Even though Stiverne is usually inactive, I won't say Deontay Wilder is going to walk through him. Stiverne is tough as nails (even though he'll have to keep his left hand up to avoid Wilder's monstrous right cross), and I think he would at least test Wilder's chin. Stiverne is a slick boxer and quicker than he looks. He didn't give Arreola much respect, which is why he took his best shots (and walked right through them I might add). I think that the WBC is going to be willing to allow Stiverne vs. Wladimir Klitschko to unify all the titles (they would be stupid not to considering the amount of money Klitschko makes in his fights), and Wilder is going to have to wait his turn. The only person who will stand in the way of Stiverne vs. Klitschko is Stiverne's promoter, Don King.
Don King is going to try and ride Stiverne's coattails as long as possible. For this reason, I'm not sure if an agreement is going to be reached for Stiverne vs. Klitschko. The greedy King generally demands options on opponent's future fights, which is something Tom Loeffler, and Klitschko, are certainly going to refuse to sign off on. Because Klistchko vs. Stiverne is not a mandatory, the fight will not go to a purse bid, meaning if the terms cannot be agreed to, there is no fight. Therefore, I fully expect the next fight for Bermane Stiverne to go to the highest bidder in a purse bid. That fight will be against Deontay Wilder. Both Golden Boy and Don King (among others I would assume) are going to throw some pretty big cash to land the promotion of this fight.
Speaking of Wilder, did anyone see him beat the hell out of the racist who had been harassing him? Before you get all bent out of shape, the guy, Charlie Zelenoff, had been harassing Wilder for 3 years and sending him messages saying he was going to harm his daughter. Wilder offered the guy a chance to meet him at a boxing gym. Zelenoff agreed and Wilder proceeded to deliver one of the biggest ass-whippings in internet history. To be honest, I'm glad Wilder did this because it shows people who say nasty things about others behind a keyboard that there can be consequences to their actions. I've always liked Wilder as a person after meeting him and having multiple conversations with him, but this made me respect him even more as a human being. If you haven't seen the footage, click here.
Where does Chris Arreola go from here? I think a guy like Arreola is great for boxing because he speaks his mind and always tells the truth, however, I think the end has come for "The Nightmare." Arreola is not retiring, nor should he. He can still make a good living boxing, but, at this point, we can only look at Arreola as a gatekeeper for contenders to test their mettle. Arreola will still have another big win in his career, but I'm not so sure he'll ever have another crack at a heavyweight title.
Did anyone watch All Access: Mayweather vs. Maidana Epilogue? If you did, I think you would agree that there is no question whom Mayweather will be fighting in September. That episode of All Access basically setup a rematch fight between the two fighters, which proves my theory from last week all along.
I'm intrigued by a Terence Crawford vs. Yuriorkis Gamboa fight. Gamboa has certainly taken a turn for the worst in a career that once looked so promising, but his explosiveness, both in and out of the ring, and the fact that his speed could trouble Crawford makes this fight very interesting for as long as it lasts. I think Gamboa needs to come out guns blazing and test the young champion's will to win. I expect Crawford to win, but I think it may be more interesting than most believe it will be.
What does Adrien Broner's suspension by the WBC mean? Absolutely nothing if you ask me. Broner was suspended after his comment, following his win over Carlos Molina, for saying, "I just beat the f*ck out of a Mexican." First of all, I've heard way worse with no repercussions. I'm not saying it was right, but had Broner said something like that about beating a fighter from Ghana, would we really be having a conversation about it? This has to do with the WBC being based out of Mexico. Plain and simple. Broner has 3 others belts he can go after and probably won't apologize until he is about to fight for a WBC belt. He isn't suspended from boxing, so why the hell should anyone care?
Each week, I feature an email from a fan on Observe and Fight. This week's email comes to us from Kris Smith regarding the outcome of Mayweather vs. Maidana...
"I am a fighthype fanatic and check its updates religously. I happen to read your thoughts on mayweathers recent outing and I called the same exact outcome. Remember we have seen a similiar fight back in 2001 against castillio. People felt castillio should have won, so they built animosity for a second fight and floyd dismantled him fairly easily the second time around and made more money doing so. I honestly believe that floyd is that much of a genius to have fought maidanas fight and make it seem close in reality we know the actual outcome prematurely which would more than likely be a unanimous win for floyd. Now everyone is talking and debating, arguing, and contemplating whether maidana really had a chance. We just saw floyd take canelo to school with probably one of floyds most masterful fights of his career and now he goes against maidana who is a flat footed brawler and look average? i dont think so, I believe if there is in fact a rematch in september that floyd will dismantle maidana as he did castillio in the second fight, walk away with even more money, and yet again break the record for the most paperview buys. He is a master of the martial art as well as a genius businessman. Floyd knows there isnt any more top elite competition for him to face so make maidana look better then he really is? It is something we will all have to find out. I appreciate your knowledge and time you put into this great sport and enjoy reading the articles. Keep up the professional work as I will continue to be inspired by it. Thanks for your time have a great day."
Thank you very much, Kris. I appreciate the kind words. The only thing I'll disagree with is that a rematch with Maidana will not break the PPV all-time record. The only fight for Floyd that could make that happen at this point is Pacquiao. Unless, of course, he moves up to middleweight to fight Martinez or Golovkin, or if Bernard Hopkins moves down to middleweight as well.
That's all I've got for this week. Email any questions or comments to dkassel@fighthype.com and I will answer them throughout the week. Your email may be featured in the next "Observe and Fight." Follow me on Twitter @BoxingObserver, and be sure to "Like" The Boxing Observer on Facebook.
[ Follow David Kassel on Twitter @BoxingObserver ]