After taking three "rebuilding" fights following his devastating knockout loss to Danny Garcia, Amir Khan has announced that he will be facing off against Devon Alexander on December 13th in Las Vegas. This fight represents Khan's first "real" test in the ring in the past 18 months. It would seem that Team Khan's game plan is to win impressively and then step up the calls for a fight with Floyd Mayweather in May of 2015. One wonders whether they realize that winning impressively against Alexander is a task much easier said than done.
Devon Alexander is still one of the most talented fighters in the sport. The only reason he is being treated as an opponent is the perception that his career has stalled in the last few years. Fighters who fight in the style Devon Alexander does need to register good wins consistently to remain talked about. Unfortunately, Devon hasn't really looked impressive since his junior welterweight days, hence the perceived descent into obscurity. What hasn't faded with his diminished presence in the media, however, is his boxing ability. Devon still possesses enough boxing skill to outbox most of the welterweight division. More importantly, he still believes that he belongs at the elite level and has big pay-per-view fight aspirations of his own. Alexander knows Khan is beatable and understands that he, like a few other names in the division, are only potentially one significant victory away from fighting Floyd Mayweather for welterweight supremacy. All of this should motivate Devon Alexander to produce a career defining performance against Khan.
For Khan, while a victory over Alexander has value, there is a strong likelihood that it would come at the price of looking unimpressive. No Alexander opponent has looked good in the ring against him. That is partly because of Devon's qualities, but also because of the style clash he often produces. Defensive southpaws are generally an awkward matchup for offensive orthodox fighters. In victory over Alexander, neither Shawn Porter nor Timothy Bradley looked particularly impressive. They relied on swarming and overwhelming; a tactic which, though effective against Alexander, will do little to convince the public that Khan is worthy of a pay-per-view fight against Floyd Mayweather. An Amir Khan knockout win is also unlikely. Khan doesn't have concussive power (3 KOs in his last 12 fights) and Devon Alexander has never come close to being knocked out, even in his encounters against noted knockout punchers Randall Bailey, Marcos Maidana, and Lucas Matthysse. The likelihood is that it will be a competitive fight, with Devon winning his fair share of rounds in a contest that will feature some scrappy exchanges. Khan calling out Mayweather in the immediate aftermath of a scrappy win will do nothing to increase his stock or excite the fans for a potential Mayweather-Khan May 2015 clash.
The fight also carries an injury risk for both boxers. The average orthodox-southpaw matchup throws up its fair share of accidental head clashes. Should the fight be significantly affected or ended prematurely by an injury, then effectively, in the fans eyes, neither fighter will have done enough to prove themselves ready for a bigger fight. Deep cuts could also potentially put in jeopardy the possibility of either fighter being available to fight again soon after December. For Khan, the demons of past failures in challenging "stay busy" fights will also be a factor. All of Khan's losses have come in fights he really didn't need to take against then underrated fighters. As if Team Khan hasn't absorbed the lessons from those encounters, Khan is fighting the now underrated Alexander for little apparent reward. There are no belts on the line, this fight doesn't pay significantly more than the others available to him, and Khan won't receive much credit for potentially beating Alexander. The only major positive for Khan is that a fight with Devon Alexander is not a major knockout risk (Devon has 2 KOs in his last 10 fights).
In risk-reward terms, Amir Khan vs. Devon Alexander is a better fight for Devon Alexander than it is for Amir Khan. Khan is the front-runner for a lucrative fight with the pound-for-pound king. The only things that can get in the way of a May showdown with Mayweather are a shock loss or diminished public demand as a result of an unimpressive performance. Devon Alexander is more than capable of inflicting at least one of those outcomes on Khan. For the St. Louis fighter, this fight is a win-win. There was nothing exciting on the horizon for him and he now gets a chance to possibly bag a win that can catapult back to the higher reaches of the welterweight division. Alexander also benefits from the pressure to impress being on Khan's shoulders rather than his own. Khan has a lot more to lose than Alexander and not much more to gain.