When the fight first got announced, I was leaning towards Lucas, but I did a little bit of research after I was asked to give a breakdown on this fight and there is a reason why Matthysse kept losing to Marcos Maidana when trying to come out of the regional area in Argentina. I think that Lucas, as good as a fighter as he is, I think that Golden Boy has a great marketing machine behind him. He lost to Danny, he lost to Zab, and he lost to Devon. And the Devon and the Zab losses got, not overlooked, but because they were controversial, he had like this uncrowned champion type of moniker behind him. He is extremely heavy-handed, but I think in a fight like this, he may not fight with the sense of urgency as fans would like him to. I think that the reason why Maidana was able to keep beating him as an amateur is because Maidana fights with a different sense of urgency than Lucas does. Lucas kind of has one gear. It's a hell of a gear, but nevertheless, it's one gear.
I looked at Provodnikov really good and I think that against Algieri, he probably edged that fight, but they gave Algieri a break because Provodnikov was walking in without really jabbing his way in. And in this fight right here, I don't think he will pay for that because both of them are shorter fighters and neither one of them are going to be moving or has the length that Algieri has. And I think that Provodnikov, though they both are punchers and are heavy-handed, Provodnikov is the more electric puncher. He is more of an eye-catching puncher. I think that he also punches in a better rhythm as far as combinations. He gives you a better rhythm as far as combinations if you are a stand still target. Provodnikov throws...some of Freddie Roach's signature training, a lot of his fighters can punch and they can do it in 5-punch combinations: Khan, Manny, Provodnikov. So you notice Freddie Roach fighters can do that. Matthysse is more of a boom-boom-boom kind of puncher and in a war, the guy that throws more shots has a better chance of winning.
I think both guys have really good chins, but I get the impression that Provodnikov is willing to go through a little bit more. I get that impression that he is a little bit crazier. I get the impression that pain and discomfort is something that he is willing to accept a little bit more. I was very impressed that Matthysse was able to come back against John Molina. He got in a war with a big puncher, but Molina was able to take him to the brink and I think that Provodnikov gets a little more wild then Molina and I think he's just a little bit better all-around fighter. So if you twist my arm...I'm concerned about Provodnikov's face breaking up. Matthysse is definitely a lights out puncher, so I'm really concerned about his face breaking up. People don't like to talk about this, but there is an A side and B side to fights, and Matthysse is with Golden Boy, which is a bigger entity than Banner Promotions, which is something we have to consider. But I think that Provodnikov got a little bit of the short end of the stick the last time he was in New York, and I'm going to go against the grain a little bit and I'm going to go with Provodnikov by a close decision. I know a lot of people picking a knockout, but I'm going to say Provodnikov by decision. I think it's going to be close, but I think it's going to be clear enough because of his punches in combination, which he tends to do more than Lucas does, and I think that's going to be a little bit more judge-friendly and eye-catching. But I tell you what, Provodnikov better have a good cut man because his face breaks up and his eyes swell up consistently during fights and Matthysse is a violent puncher. And when you got a guy punching through people like that, he's going to draw blood and puffiness. But all in all, I'm going to say Provodnikov edges it with his combination punching. Matthysse is going to be punching in 1's and 2's, and Provodnikov is going to be punching in 4's and 5's, and I think that's going to be the difference.
And I actually thought Provodnikov fought a very poor fight against Algieri. I was actually very frustrated that he wasn't jabbing his way in to Algieri. He was sort of walking his way in against Algieri and he really wasn't doing a good job of cutting the ring off. See, a guy like Pacquiao, he don't cut the ring off, but he steps into you so fast that he don't have to cut the ring off all the time. Provodnikov isn't blessed with the foot speed that Manny has, but I'm impressed with Provodnikov when you stay in a box with him. When you stay in a box with him, he can really get his hands off in vicious combinations. And I look at Matthysse, and although Matthysse is good, he doesn't draw on the trigger like Provodnikov does. Even thought Provodnikov isn't looked at as a speedster, he gets his hands off fast against guys who are not moving targets. When they are in a box and they tie each other's shoestrings to each other's shoes and they going mano to mano, I see Provodnikov as the quicker and little bit faster fighter from that area. And I think it's going to count because you talking about an old western shootout. When Gatti and Ward fought, Gatti is a little bit quicker to the draw than Ward is, so if you look at those wars, Gatti was constantly beating Ward to the punch 3 out of 5 times. And I think that in this kind of fight, that's going to count for something.
Ultimately, it may come down to who got the better beard and I think they both got good beards. Neither one of them have been stopped, but I think that Provodnikov is just a little bit more demonic. He's a little bit more sick. Pain and things like that don't bother him. He's willing to go to a dark, dark place that a lot of guys aren't willing to go, and I think it's going to count in this fight. I think we going to see a war, but I don't think we going to see a stoppage. I really don't. I think they are both going to be in tremendous shape and we are going to see a hard fought decision in Provodnikov's favor.
BREAD CRUMBS (QUICK PICKS)
CRAWFORD VS. DULORME: Terence Crawford is top 10 pound-for-pound. I have been impressed about everything Terence Crawford, from his character, to his stamina, to his demeanor, to the way he can switch both ways. He's going to beat Dulorme. I don't know if he's going to stop him, but he's going to beat him. Dulorme is a talented kid, but he comes apart in the second half of the fight and I think he's a bit of a frontrunner. I seen him come apart against Hank Lundy, I seen him come apart against Abregu in the fight that he lost and I don't think that's a coincidence. I like Crawford in this one. I don't know if he going to stop him, but I definitely think he going to win.
CHAVEZ JR. VS. FONFARA: If everything is fair with the judges, I'm taking Fonfara with the upset. If everything is on the up and up with the judges, I like Fonfara to win the fight. I don't know if they going to give him the fight, but that's who I'm picking to win the fight if the scorecards are right. Fonfara by split decision is my official pick.
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