Four years ago, Chad Dawson burst onto the scene with a dominating win over Tomasz Adamek. It was the kind of performance that signaled the arrival of a future superstar that could rule the Light Heavyweight division, who's top contenders and champions were well past their sell date. As expect of him, Dawson challenged the old guard, defeating Glen Johnson and Antonio Tarver twice apiece, but still found himself playing second fiddle to Bernard Hopkins. He lobbied unsuccessfully for four years to get him in the ring and in an almost ironic twist, Dawson himself was defeated by the younger Jean Pascal, seeing his momentum come crashing down in an uninspired effort that left many to question his potential and desire to win.
In those same four years, Hopkins himself found himself at the top of the mountain, his only blemishes coming in a split decision loss to Joe Calzaghe and a draw that was later avenged against Pascal to reclaim the Light Heavyweight title. Hopkins paid no mind to the rising Dawson, who he disregarded at the time due to financial reasons. Many, however, believed Hopkins was simply avoiding Dawson until the time was right. This weekend, whether it be by circumstance or fate, the disgraced young prince finally will have his chance to fulfill his destiny facing the old king. But will it be destiny that rules the night come Saturday, or is this really a path the young warrior was never meant to see the end of?
Bernard Hopkins
Age: 46
Height: 6'1"
Record: 52-5-2 (32 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 1
Last Five Fights: 4-0-1 (0 KO)
*WBC Champion*
Chad Dawson
Age: 29
Height: 6'1"
Record: 30-1 (17 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 3
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (0 KO)
Speed: Dawson
Power: Dawson
Technique: Dawson
X-Factor: Hopkins
Though the fight is long overdue between these two, there is hardly any anticipation for it. Considering the usually overly-methodical style of Hopkins, combined with Dawson's recent performances, the fight will more than likely result in 12 rounds that will feel even longer than normal. Dawson and Hopkins were last seen back in May, with Dawson in a less-than-stellar showing against Adrian Diaconu and Hopkins winning his title over Pascal. So much has changed, however, since this fight was first announced; namely the change in corners for Dawson.
Dawson dumped Emmanuel Steward in favor of staying closer to home and training with John Scully. While this has been seen as a dumb move by many, it may not be as bad of a move as one thought. When you consider that Dawson has shown all the attributes that have troubled Hopkins in the past, like good footwork, fast hands, and respectable power, he is showing confidence in his abilities, and as FightHype's own Ben Thompson said last week on FightHype radio, Dawson doesn't need anybody to teach him how to box.
We've seen Dawson range from absolutely spectacular [Adamek, Tarver I] to uninspired and dull [Tarver II, Pascal]. For Dawson to win, he will need to stay consistent behind a high work-rate and prevent Hopkins from getting inside where he will use every dirty trick in the book to slow him down. Though Dawson is the stronger fighter, he'll have to rely on his speed and attack Hopkins to the body, like Calzaghe did, to disrupt his opponents rhythm and have enough discipline to do it for 12 rounds.
Discipline is where Hopkins excels. Nobody outside of Floyd Mayweather follows a game plan so perfectly and efficiently in this day and age. Hopkins took this fight because he believes that Dawson will not have the mindset to commit himself and he is not smart enough to come in with a plan B. Hopkins will have to work his way inside and make it a close quarters affair, where he can land enough shots and clinch to slow Dawson down. The closer Hopkins is to Dawson, the more dangerous he becomes.
In the two fights against Pascal, Hopkins arguably took advantage of the fact that Pascal would tire late and fought at Hopkins' pace, but it is very unlikely that the more dynamic Dawson will allow him to dictate the pace from the get-go. The first half of the fight will determine if the champion retains and if Hopkins can get away with engaging clinches and landing body shots. He'll turn up the pace in the later rounds, looking to pull away in what will be a close finish.
When it's all said and done, Dawson should absolutely beat Hopkins, especially when every natural advantage belongs to him. He's taller, stronger, faster, younger, and motivated to finally get the chance he has waited for after all these years. That said, he has shown frustration and a lackadaisical approach to fights, even when he is winning. That is one chink in the armor that can definitely be exposed by an old pro, even an ancient one like Hopkins.
The verdict here is that Chad Dawson will not do the body work necessary to age Hopkins early in the fight, leading to Hopkins beating him up on the inside over the course of 12 rounds. Though the fight will be close and horrifically ugly, much like the Calzaghe fight, Hopkins walks away with the decision, a split decision, and continues his reign.
Potshot Picks is 21-5 (80%) for the year.
Danny Howard can be reached via e-mail (dhoward@fighthype.com), Twitter (@DBHoward126) and on Facebook.