So...what Happened Last Weekend? Styles may indeed make fights, but what we have to understand too is that Team Pacquiao picked Marquez for a reason. He hasn't looked spectacular in recent outings, he's hella old, and they knew that he'd have to come up in weight to make the fight. They didn't make this fight with the idea that it was going to be competitive, much like they didn't make the fight with Shane Mosley because they thought it was going to be boring; but that happened regardless. These two fights though paint a far different picture than his two fights last year against Joshua Clottey and Antonio Margarito, and the punch-stats indicate as much.
Pacquiao's average punch per fight in 2010: 1150
Pacquiao's average punch per fight in 2011: 652
The numbers speak for themselves. Pacquiao's lauded activity and windmill style attack that carried him through eight divisions is now at pedestrian level (for him anyway). Granted, Mosley and Marquez are theoretically better fighters than Clottey and Margarito, but as I mentioned before, the reason Top Rank made those fights is because they thought Pacquiao was going to wipe them out.
Keep in mind that Pacquiao's other opponent this year was Mosley, who Top Rank called a shot and old fighter before the fight even took place. Pacquiao should've been the first to stop him. It's also interesting to note that a common excuse that has been offered for fight fans to chew on is that in both of his fights this year, Pacquaio's movement has been limited due to him mysteriously cramping right around the fourth round. So what Team Pacquiao is saying is that he can have the "best training camp of his life" and constantly looks incredible, but he can't avoid cramping after four rounds?
Alex Ariza, who would be most directly responsible for Pacquiao's conditioning, went the gold 'ol fashioned "it's not me, it's him" route with this doozy of a quote: "[Manny] looked good, but his body didn't cooperate with him again last night. His balance was off, he looked very ordinary, nothing special. He was exposed...I don't want to make excuses about leg cramps, but our fights are getting worse and worse. We are starting to go in reverse. Unless we get back to what we did in the beginning, I don't see how we are going to progress."
Last week, I predicted correctly that Pacquiao was past his peak and that was due to the accumulation of punishment he's taken in a career nearly 60 fights long. All of his standout fights have been brawls, and even his one-sided victories at Welterweight and beyond have been incredibly taxing on him. Here's a comparison of Pacquiao's face following his one-sided wins in the Clottey and Margarito fights.
Whatever you call it, something is not right with the Pacquiao camp and a fourth fight with Marquez isn't going to right that ship. Whether it's the fact that Pacquiao isn't motivated enough to fight these opponents or Ariza needs to get the axe, something has got to give.
The Return of the King
One thing was on the mind of several fight fans and analysts alike after the controversial outcome of the fight last weekend. It wasn't a fourth fight with Marquez, but instead, none other than Floyd Mayweather's claim as the best fighter in boxing. Pacquiao has long been considered the top fighter since 2008 when Mayweather was in the midst of one of his vacations from the sport. While plenty still considered Mayweather to be the champ in recess, many others decided to go with what was current and that was Pacquiao. Mayweather now is universally recognized as the best fighter in the world once again and takes a piece of Pacquiao's popularity, much like Marquez took his veil of invincibility away.
Mayweather is hoping to return May 5th and is playing to the tune of Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum saying that testing is no longer an issue, as well as Pacquiao's own statement that he wants to fight him next. Recent statements from Top Rank, citing that Mayweather is off the radar for the time being and Marquez is priority one, is making nobody happy, even the most ardent Pacquiao fans who believe he's the greatest thing since they started watching boxing in 2008. Making it even more muddled, Marquez himself said if a fourth fight is to happen, they'd have to come down to Mexico to make the fight since he has no interest in fighting Pacquiao in America.
Even if Marquez is to get the request to fight in Mexico, he'll also ask for more money and Top Rank will kill that fight quickly, but it wouldn't contribute to the cause of making the mythological fight between Pacquiao and Mayweather happen. It's tough to say where we go next in this chapter, but now, Mayweather is not as much of the villain as was initially perceived and Pacquiao has fewer options to take this time around.
Where We Go From Here
It's so painfully obvious that Arum wants to keep Pacquiao as far from a fight with Mayweather as he can, even suggesting a fourth fight with Marquez, though the latter made it clear he'd be contemplating retirement. Pacquiao himself has had enough of Marquez going on record twice saying that he "clearly won" the fight and doesn't see the need for a fourth fight, opting instead to make the fight with Mayweather to give the fans what they want to see. Perhaps this is Pacquiao stepping outside of the box and sending the message to his boss, or it could be a failed attempt at gamesmanship now that the consensus is that there is no way Pacquiao can remotely compete with Mayweather.
Mayweather will return in May, and while no opponent is on tap for him as of yet, I've got a few theories I'll save for next weeks "Post". I think that Mayweather is going to take a more aggressive approach to making this fight happen. Pacquiao has let it out that he may be fighting against his will, and Arum has made it clear that Mayweather isn't a priority and has provided the boxing world somebody to point the finger to. Timothy Bradley may be on tap for Pacquiao, but with a blueprint out and considering his rapidly deteriorating quality of performances, that suddenly becomes a riskier fight than they anticipated, so it's hard to say where Pacquiao goes from here.
Though people may be tired as all hell waiting for Pacquiao-Mayweather to come to fruition, we can all agree that for the first time in nearly two years of negotiations and hoping, we CAN actually call this a step in the right direction. Things are about to get much more interesting from here on out.
Danny Howard can be reached via e-mail (dhoward@fighthype.com), Twitter (@DBHoward126) and on Facebook.