No fighter signifies the deteriorating or perversion of boxing's titles than Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, whose ability to sell tickets and generate large amounts of fan-fare amongst Latino fans caused the WBC to strip Sergio Martinez of the belt and awarded it to Chavez. When Chavez fights, he makes his promoter Bob Arum and WBC President Jose Suliman a lot of money, and they know that as long as Chavez is matched soft, they will continue to make their money. Last June, Chavez was stastically dominated by Sebastian Zbik and got what some considered to be a hometown decision as he fought in Los Angeles. For his first defense, he is heading to another Latino freindly crowd in Houston, Texas to face Peter Manfredo Jr.
There had been previous chatter of Chavez's lack of dedication to his training, perhaps a side-effect of his manufactured success knowing that he's not being matched up against fighters that stand a chance to beat him. In Manfredo, however, he is facing someone who is at least at his exact same level of skill. Manfredo is tough, but has fallen short against top competition on multiple occasions in fights against Joe Calzaghe and Sakio Bika. That being said, he himself is in the midst of a career revival. Can Manfredo's better experience and recent hot streak finally net him a title? Or will Chavez's grit and the benefit of fighting in a friendly town be enough to carry the day?
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., WBC Middleweight Champion
Age: 25
Height: 6'0
Record: 43-0-1 (30 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 13
Last Five Fights: 4-0 (1 KO), No Contest 11/14/09 vs. Troy Rowland
Peter Manfredo Jr.
Age: 30
Height: 5'10
Record: 37-6 (20 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 15
Last Five Fights: 5-0 (3 KO)
Power: Chavez
Speed: Manfredo
Technique: Manfredo
X-Factor: Chavez (Hometown environment in Houston may factor into judging)
As noted before, Manfredo always came up short in attempts to break into the upper-echelon of the sport, as noted in losses to Sergio Mora and Jeff Lacy, followed by a pair of third round TKOs by Calzaghe and Bika. Still, those names are leagues above the names that Chavez has fought. The trip down from 168 to 160 has benefitted him as he is showing more power and speed, and has put together a decent string of wins over a who's who of gatekeepers in the Middleweight division. Manfredo is on a roll and is performing better, at this stage of his career, than he has at any prior time. He should be motivated in what would be his last shot to break out.
Being a more proficient boxer and showing an increase in punching power at 160, Manfredo is a very dangerous opponent for Chavez, who has a porous defense at best and is very easy to hit. The ideal situation for him is for Chavez to be cut from a punch, and then continue pouring on the shots while staying away from any sustained inside fighting, which would favor the younger champion. He must use the ring to make Chavez pursue him instead of engaging him. Though many are expecting a fight to break out, it will be in Manfredo's favor to make it as much of a boxing match as possible, using his experience and more refined skill set as opposed to gunning for a knockout.
Chavez had one big advantage going into his fight with Zbik last June and that was that although he made the 160-pound limit, he rehydrated nearly 20 pounds and was impervious to Zbik's already soft punches. Confidence is what is needed to drive him through the fight, but his conditioning is going to be a huge factor into how he will perform against Manfredo. Chavez's weight problems have been documented through the years, but one hopes that he'll get it right Saturday night. An aborted fight with Ronald Hearns last September came from an alleged hand injury, but many suspected that Chavez was nowhere near making weight for that fight.
If Chavez has anything from his legendary father, it's his ability to take a lot of punches but still continue to plod forward, pressing the fight while taking more punches as he does. Zbik couldn't miss, landing 49% of his shots and 54% of his power punches, but the difference with Manfredo is that he can punch, and sustained punishment this time around may not be a good idea. Setting up a left hook through body punches will be the best strategy for Chavez, along with trapping Manfredo on the ropes and landing shots to hinder his mobility. Power is on Chavez's side, but that isn't what will carry the day for him.
Though Manfredo has a great chance of winning a title this Saturday, it is almost a cop-out to say that a homefield advantage, alongside being a Top Rank A-lister, will be enough to overlook whatever the former Contender star brings to the ring. Be it as it may, I expect a better than expected fight that will go the distance and have some moments of high drama all leading up to possibly another questionable decision on the heels of last week's fight. I'm going to go with Chavez Jr. to continue his reign as "champion" via unanimous decision.
Potshot Picks is 26-7 (79%) Year To Date*
*Pending final ruling on Dawson TKO2 Hopkins 10/15
Danny Howard can be reached via e-mail (dhoward@fighthype.com), Twitter (@DBHoward126) and on Facebook.