I have been going back and forth about how I see this fight going. I like the fact that Miguel Cotto is keeping it very real. I know a lot of people felt he gave up a mental advantage when he said he wasn't willing to die in the ring. He was like, "Man, that's stupid. I got four kids. Who is going to take care of them?" I definitely whole-heartedly agree with that approach. It's in New York, essentially his backyard. I think those fans are going to be fired up and spur him on. The thing is, can he fight backwards and can he be smart enough to where, when he gets himself in a jam, to grab and hold. Do what Shane Mosley did to him; throw your combinations and when he steps forward, grab him and hold him and let the ref break you guys up. I don't know if Cotto is strong enough to stop Margarito at this stage. It didn't look too effective at 147 and I don't see his power being any different at 154. If he can keep it together mentally and his physical condition is up to par, and he can fight a smarter fight and maybe a safer fight, I think he can outpoint him and win a decision or maybe even target that eye to where the commission wants to step in.
Obviously that is a financial nightmare if Margarito fights a 12-round fight and goes blind in one eye after this fight. That's just something that nobody wants to see. Well, maybe some people out there want to see that. When you look at his whole career, maybe some people think he deserves that. I personally don't know the man and I wouldn't want to see anyone affected like that after a fight, whether it be blindness or a severe injury. I don't think he should be fighting anymore, but you know what? I'm not on the commission and I'm not the one that licenses him. He's in there and he's going to try to pull off the same game plan. He's going to try and put a lot of pressure on Miguel Cotto. And I think in the early rounds, he will try to hit Miguel with some big shots to prove, "Hey, it wasn't the wraps, it was me." He's going to try to make it a very physical fight and try to get into Miguel's head a little bit as well. And if he is successful with that, then I can see him kind of wearing Miguel Cotto out again and if he can't, he will lose.
I think Margarito is what he is. He is a fighter that takes damage and tries to give it back to you. I don't think he can change that. I mean, he could try, but I think he needs to be aggressive and try to negate the hand speed advantage that Cotto has by getting in close and kind of getting his shots off early. But he is what he is; he takes punishment and then he comes back. He is a durable guy and I think that's probably going to be his game plan going into this fight, thinking, "Hey, I can wear this guy out again." But he has to have in the back of his mind that it's a situation where if this guy swells up, they are going to have to control that and control that early. That's going to be interesting because I've seen some cutmen actually do more damage with the enswell than the opponent is doing sometimes, so they gotta make sure they aren't doing it too early and when they are doing it, they can't be moving that enswell around to where they are breaking up cartilage and stuff like that and creating more swelling. It's going to be interesting to see what happens in this fight.
I would have to say Cotto is the more damaged fighter of the two just because we're not sure if those wraps were loaded and if they were, he took some of Cotto's career with that. We have seen brutal fights before. We have seen brutality and guys are never the same. I mean, if you look at Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier after the Thrilla in Manila, those guys were never the same. Even when you watch George Foreman and Ron Lyle's fights, unless you're like Foreman and can take off 10 years and kind of recuperate your body, when you have them wars like that and you have those battles, you are just never the same. In Cotto's case, the pressure is on. You saw it in the Pacquiao fight. It gets tougher and he was getting hit and it was tough for him to absorb that and keep going. I would say he is a little bit more damaged, although Margarito carries some baggage as well.
I will not be betting money on this fight because it's just too close to call, but I'm going to say Cotto at home. He is the more skilled fighter and I think he will fight a smarter fight. I think you will see him hold a little bit more and I think he will get a decision.