Two years ago, while Devon Alexander was the unified WBC & IBF Jr. Welterweight champion and was praised as a sure-fire superstar in the making, Marcos Maidana was emerging as a world class threat, but time has not been kind to both men since then. Alexander and Maidana have both come up short in attempts to further their careers and are now finding themselves at the crossroads after only being steps away from the sport's highest platform. A win for either man will get them right back on track in their careers, and with two young and in their prime fighters facing off this weekend, there is no doubt that a great fight is in the making.
Devon Alexander
Age: 25
Height: 5'8"
Record: 22-1 (13 KOs)
BoxRec Ranking: Unranked at welterweight
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (2 KOs)
Marcos Maidana
Age: 28
Height: 5'9"
Record: 31-2 (28 KOs)
BoxRec Ranking: Unranked at welterweight
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (2 KOs)
Power: Maidana
Speed: Alexander
Technique: Alexander
X-Factor: Home field advantage for Alexander
Following his star-making stoppage wins over Junior Witter and Juan Urango, Alexander has gone 2-1 in his last three fights, though the wins came as a result of very suspect decisions. It's feasible to say he has gone 0-3 in that stretch. Alexander has shown excellent hand speed and a high work rate, but his power has inexplicably vanished since his brutal KO win over Urango in March 2010. One thing that is sorely lacking more so than his lack of pop is his leaky defense, which has allowed his opponents to average nearly 35% of their power shots against him in his last four fights.
In Maidana, he is presented with an opponent who isn't going to fight on his back foot and will be going after him from the start of the fight to the finish. With wild shots from both hands and the ability to punch to the head and body, Alexander must follow a game plan of boxing and movement to keep his stronger and unpredictable opponent guessing on him, in addition to doing bodywork early in the fight to slow his opponent down to a crawl. By firing combinations to keep Maidana off balance, staying away from the corner and the ropes, and utilizing his superior speed, it is very possible to see Alexander winning this fight, but it is all contingent on if he defense has improved.
If Alexander's advantages is his speed and skill, then there is no doubt that Maidana's advantages is his power and grit. Though he fell short against Amir Khan and found himself in a tougher than expect fight against Erik Morales, Maidana was in the fight and finished strong in both contests, and he looked to be the stronger man heading into the later rounds. While Alexander may be the speediest fighter he's fought in his career thus far, team Maidana has to like the match-up stylistically after watching how Alexander seems out of his element against fighters that come forward.
Maidana isn't going to be confused for Tim Bradley, but making the fight rough and ugly to start like Bradley did against Alexander could frustrate his opponent, while also landing some hard body shots in the meanwhile. Minimizing Alexander's movement is key, as Alexander may feel the pressure and try to punch Maidana off of him, but being that it is unlikely Alexander has the pop to discern him, Maidana will be more than willing to trade shots with him. With all the punches Alexander throws, it is almost a no-brainer that a body attack has to be implemented early as Alexander may tire late, as he did against Matthysse and Kotelnik.
What it all comes down to in the end is whether skill or will wins the day, and at the end of the day, Alexander was looking frustrated from the pressure he took from Bradley and Matthysse. Maidana is a much stronger puncher than both of them, and while he may find himself down early due to Alexander's superior boxing acumen, Maidana will never be too far behind and the shots will continue to add up heading into the later rounds. If this was a 12-round fight instead of the scheduled 10, I'd pick Maidana by TKO in the 11th, but instead, I opt for controversy as Alexander notches up another questionable decision in front of a hometown crowd.
As for the other fights this weekend, starting with the undercard, I expect Adrian Broner to edge Eloy Perez in a highly-competitive fight, which may be decided by an early Broner knockdown. For the Heavyweights overseas, Alexander Povetkin's reign as champion will come to an end at the hands of Cruiserweight champion Marco Huck, thanks in part to the removal of Teddy Atlas from Povetkin's corner.
Potshot Picks is 5-1 (83%) year to date.
Danny Howard can be reached for comments or questions at dhoward@fighthype.com, Facebook, or follow him on Twitter (@DBHOWARD126). Also don't miss an episode of FightHype Radio, the baddest two hours of boxing on the planet, starting at 8pm EST.