The press tour for Mayweather vs Cotto on May 5 is finally underway and with the fight just over 9 weeks away, we are now hearing opinions and predictions from all corners of the globe. With the breakdown of the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight unfolding before our eyes over the past two years, there has been an ugly divide created within the boxing world, in which people who are avid followers of Manny Pacquiao are unable to credit or applaud anything Floyd Mayweather does, and vice versa. And with that unwritten rule that seems like it's being adopted around the world by both sets of fans, it appears that boxing logic and judgment is being compromised instead of looking at the bigger picture and realizing that both men are in for a tough night's work in their upcoming bouts. I have had emails and tweets from people suggesting that Miguel Cotto is a shot fighter who offers no threat to Floyd Mayweather, but that could not be further from the truth, and here are a few factors that could actually work in Cotto's favor.
Mayweather's inactivity
Yes, yes, yes, your first instinct would be "we have heard this excuse before and Floyd comes back better than ever", and if you have thought that, you would be right. However, from May 2, 2010 (one day after the Shane Mosley bout) until May 5, 2012 (the day of his upcoming bout with Miguel Cotto), Floyd Mayweather would have only fought just under 4 rounds (his 4th round victory over Victor Ortiz). Previously after long layoffs, Mayweather returned after being tested over 12 rounds, and with Mayweather now being 35, the inactivity over this period may have an effect at some point during this fight.
2 defeats - 1 Style
As good of a career as Cotto has had, the two most talked about fights are the two fights in which he came up short. Both defeats have been the topic of hot debate in the past, with Margarito beating Cotto into submission in their first encounter only to be caught attempting to load his gloves in his following fight (did he do the same against Cotto). Then we saw Cotto come down to 145 pounds in a catchweight fight against Manny Pacquiao. Now, with the controversy and the catchweight aside, both Pacquiao and Margarito are very high-tempo, front foot, pressure fighters, with Pacquiao and Margarito throwing 780 and 987 punches respectively in their fights with Cotto. Both totals are some way ahead of the highest amount of punches Floyd Mayweather has thrown in his welterweight and light middleweight fights. Mayweather is more selective and precise with his punches, with the consistency of his impeccable timing. Mayweather's ring brilliance will be a major factor in deciding this fight, but people who are writing off Cotto saying he is easy work for Mayweather, please remember that the two defeats Cotto has suffered has been against guys who are totally different in style to what Mayweather is.
Is there a blueprint to beat Mayweather?
Most would say no, because his ring brilliance and in-ring adjustments to adapt to any style, combined with his slick movement, brilliant counter punching, and lightning quick defensive reflexes proving to be impenetrable up to now. We have heard time and time again from fighters and trainers - Freddie Roach included - saying that body work against Mayweather is important. One quality that Cotto possesses is his ability to work the body. Cotto will more than likely be prepared in the best possible way given his alliance with Cuban trainer Pedro Diaz, who is renowned for working with and against counter punchers.
Fight Night Weight
Cotto is comfortable, as demontrated in his previous three fights, with the 154 weight. However, Floyd is experienced in participating in fights where his opponent weighs a whole lot more on fight night, as was the case previously against Victor Ortiz, who was adjudged to have entered the fight at 164 on fight night. As impressive as Mayweather was in that bout, the three other high-profile bouts Floyd has conceded ground by at least 10 pounds were against Carlos Baldomir, Oscar De La Hoya, and the first fight against Jose Luis Castillo. Without question those are the three bouts that, in analyzing Floyd's career, would be listed as his three worst performances. Floyd was dazzling in the opening rounds, but failed to close the show against a visibly tired and old Baldomir, who weighed 13 pounds heavier than Floyd on fight night in a bout that saw fans boo at the end. In the Castillo fight, Castillo came in on fight night at 147 for a bout that took place at 135, and the size difference evidently made a difference in the fight as many people at ringside thought Floyd had lost. Then we saw Oscar De La Hoya at light middleweight, with Floyd apparently weighing in on fight night at 148, two pounds below his official weight. Both of those bouts have been the closest that Floyd has come to tasting defeat. So will the weight difference be a factor in the fight?
The fight taking place at 154 is the weight which will see Cotto most effective and at his most dangerous. While styles make fights, moving up in weight can affect fighters in different ways. Let's take the Pacquiao vs .Margarito fight for instance. A catchweight of 150 pounds was set for the light middleweight title, but Pacquiao weighed in at 144, which in my opinion is totally ludicrous. Whilst Pacquiao can be applauded for stepping up and beating the bigger man, surely the whole challenge and reward for winning at the weight above is being able to carry that foot and hand speed up to the weight and have the same effect instead of winning a title that you cannot physically step up to make the weight for. Now if you can get away with it, all the power to you, as moving up in weight can affect fighters in different ways. Floyd, for instance, is not renown as a power puncher and is more credited with excellent timing and accuracy, slick movement, and good defensive reflexes rather than straight up power, so moving up in weight is a real challenge to see if he can actually carry his speed and quick reflexes up, which would be harder for him than for a power puncher like a Cotto or a Mosley. So will that be a factor?
For viewers reading this article, before commenting, please don't twist words into believing that this article is saying that "Miguel Cotto will beat Floyd Mayweather" because that is not what it is saying at all. Instead it's pointing out to the boxing fans out there that either fail to realize or refuse to acknowledge that Cotto is not a cherry-picked opponent with little threat. He is indeed a worthy opponent who will be a big threat for Floyd Mayweather with a lot of things working in his favor going into the fight.
I will be happy to reply to any questions or comments, and you can get at me at ssmith@fighthype.com or follow and tweet me @scottsfighthype.