Hard luck is the best way to sum up the recent career of Sergio Martinez. Unable to land a meaningful fight with anyone in or around his division, Martinez has had to fight the best of what's available in order to keep himself busy, but he is still as far away from a mega-fight as ever. Matthew Macklin is the next opponent lined up for Martinez this weekend, a tough and rugged Irishman who in his last fight easily handled WBA Middleweight champion Felix Sturm only to find himself on the wrong end of 2011's Worst Decision of the Year. Will this weekend be another routine match against an overmatched opponent for Martinez, or does Macklin have the luck of the Irish in his corner to pull off the unlikely upset?
Sergio Martinez
Age: 37
Height: 5'10"
Record: 48-2-2 (27 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 1
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (3 KO)
Matthew Macklin
Age: 29
Height: 5'10"
Record: 28-3 (19 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 11
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (1 KO)
Power: Martinez
Speed: Martinez
Technique: Martinez
X-Factor: Macklin fighting in front of friendly crowd
When this fight is seen at face value, it certainly looks like as much of a mismatch as Martinez's last fight against Darren Barker last October, but when that fight went down, it was far from the dominating performance we have come to expect from Maravilla. Coming forward with a high guard and pressing the action, Barker made a good account of himself and did some damage before Martinez finally dismantled him after much work, something that nobody expected, in the 11th round.
Though it was panned as a "by the numbers" win for Martinez, it led many to question his motivation heading into a pedestrian payday against an unknown opponent. Against Macklin, he'll be fighting someone who has been in with better competition than Barker, and someone who will be pressuring him from the get-go. Macklin is extremely motivated to make the most of this fight and it certainly is going to help that he is fighting in what should be a very heavy Irish crowd.
As noted above, Martinez is all around better than Macklin on paper and really should just cruise through this fight with little trouble, but a few intangibles may make it seem more difficult than it appears. Martinez's age (37), his desire to return to Super Welterweight, and whispers that his training camp has been less than stellar suggest that this fight may be an attempt to see how he looks coming in closer to 154 than 160 and perhaps Macklin is being overlooked. Should the fight be close heading into the final rounds, it's hard to guess how the judges will be influenced by the pro-Macklin crowd, but it's not looking like it will be a walk in the park.
Much has been made regarding Macklin's disputed loss to Sturm, but it was a competitive fight with Sturm coming on stronger in the later rounds, though Macklin should have won. Sturm really hasn't looked good in a while, and considering how he was handled more thoroughly by Martin Murray (though Murray had to settle for a draw), it looks like Macklin may have less going for him than one would think. Martinez has had tough nights with strong punchers, such as Pavlik and Williams, but Macklin hasn't won by KO since 2009 and really hasn't hurt anybody since then either.
There will be moments where Macklin will look impressive against a sluggish and disinterested Martinez, perhaps even being ahead on the scorecards midway through the bout. Once the fight gets to the middle rounds, however, and Martinez begins to put his foot on the pedal, he'll have too much power and speed for Macklin to handle and will stop him in front of a frenzied crowd somewhere around the 10th.
Potshot Picks is 7-3 year to date.
Danny Howard can be reached for comments or questions at dhoward@fighthype.com, Facebook, or follow him on Twitter (@DBHOWARD126). Also don't miss an episode of FightHype Radio, the baddest two hours of boxing on the planet, starting at 8pm EST.