On Saturday, October 18th, a powerful, young, devastating knock-out artist meets a future Hall of Fame boxing legend who has never been knocked out when middleweight champion Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik faces Bernard "The Executioner" Hopkins in a light heavyweight battle at Atlantic City's Boardwalk Hall and live on HBO Pay-Per-View at 9PM ET/6PM PT.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN...

Bernard Hopkins gets another crack at an undefeated champion who's moving up in weight.  The catchweight of 170 is a one-shot deal for Pavlik. He will remain the middleweight champion and plans on heading back down there after this battle because, odds are, he isn't getting the Calzaghe fight. When you get down to it though, neither guy had a big name opponent lined up and they both wanted to get back in the ring this year. So, we end up with a fight that, if nothing less, will feature two marquee names.

For Pavlik, this is a chance to get the name of an all-time great as a notch on his belt. He can test his aggressive, power-punching style against the old master, who not only has never been stopped in his career, but has also never been beaten up.  Pavlik beat the man who beat the man, but he has never faced off with the last all-time great to be a champion in his division. Now, he is doing so at a weight that suits old B-Hop, not him. 

For Hopkins, this is a chance to erase the two Jermain Taylor losses in one fight.  Both fights were close and both fights were debateable, but the record will show that both fights were officially losses. I think the Calzaghe loss bothered Hopkins, but nothing like the Taylor fights, especially the first one. Hopkins spent his whole career as the paranoid conspiracy theorist that always made sure to beat his opponents so clearly that the judges couldn't take it from him. Against Taylor, he did not fight like that guy and as a result, he paid heavily with decision losses. Some will say we saw signs of Hopkins not fighting like "The Executioner" earlier than the JT fight. That may be true, but Jermain Taylor was the anointed one and Hopkins should have known that.

WHEN THE BELL RINGS...

I can't decide what's more interesting here: seeing how Pavlik will deal with a guy who he's going to find extremely difficult to hit clean or seeing how Hopkins will handle a straightforward conventional fighter who is going to set a pace that he'll eventually be forced to keep up with.

The plan for Hopkins is going to be simple: negate Kelly Pavlik's best weapon and make him fight at a pace that suits The Executioner.  As Nazim Richardson said, "we are going to take his right hand and make him put it in his pocket."  This means a defensive fight for the Executioner with a good deal of holding, crisp and clean counterpunching and a slower pace.

Expect Bernard to fight in a manner that reminds us all of his fight against Howard Eastman.  Hopkins will constantly be circling, in this case to his right, jumping in low and coming up with his overhand right…his head will follow shortly thereafter.  Once on the inside, we'll get to see some vintage stuff: holding, shouldering, hitting on the hips… Hopkins wants to know what this kid has inside and he doesn't plan on waiting past the second round to find out.

Pavlik will look to fight as he always does. As has been said before in this space, Kelly Pavlik is not all that difficult to figure out. He is going to come forward behind a jab that occupies his opponent as much as it gauges distance, then fire the straight right hand behind it. After the right hand, Pavlik will fire an occasional left hook and he has a very underrated uppercut that he'll even lead with at times (not a wise move against a guy like Hopkins…especially early on).

The strategy here for The Ghost will be consistency though and what may not work in the first 6 rounds will be expected to start working in the last 6 rounds. 

Make no mistake, the first few rounds are not going to be incredibly eventful. Hopkins will be fighting his fight. Pavlik will stalk while Hopkins will circle, dodge and counter. Pavlik will miss and Hopkins will get rough on this inside. This pattern will continue for the first quarter of the fight. What will be interesting to see is how often Pavlik is able to get to the body of Hopkins in the clinches, as well as how he'll handle the roughhousing.  If Hopkins doesn't feel like he's that much stronger, if at all, he may soon realize that he is burning unnecessary energy in there and stick to the boxing.

As the fight moves along, things are going to begin getting a lot tighter.  Hopkins will win early rounds here, count on that, but that is not where this fight will be won or lost.  Eventually, the youth, stamina, work rate and persistence of Pavlik will pay dividends and his pressure will start winning him the rounds that Hopkins used to win. Those legs are 43 and we've seen some fade in them over the past few years. Bernard Hopkins does not have the stamina he used to. He lost the mean streak and hunger, he can't pull the trigger offensively like he once could and he cannot pull away later in fights anymore.  All those things said, it shows how great of a textbook fighter the guy is because he can still make young lions fight his fight and arguably beat them

As we reach the championship rounds, Pavlik will begin to show why age does matter, but rest assured that the early boxing of Hopkins will see The Ghost needing to seal the deal late. This fight will not be in the bank.

THE CALL...

43 is 43 and this isn't an old man's game. Hopkins is a great fighter who had a great career, but it is time to bring a close to it and enter the Hall of Fame. I think Hopkins genuinely expects to win this fight, but I also think B-Hop is fighting to make up for lost time.  

In a fight that sees things going Bernard's way early, Pavlik will begin to turn the tide around the fifth round by getting off more and taking whatever he is given.  Arms, shoulders, body…whatever! If the head isn't there, stop shooting for it! At the end of the day, landing on someone's arms is better than not throwing at all.

Pavlik will close the show by winning rounds on activity as Hopkins just can't muster the offense late. A close decision win that will have Bernard complaining again is what we can expect here. 115-113…something like that; it may be unanimous, it may be majority, but I doubt it will be split. Pavlik will have the hall of fame name on his resume,  but not get a whole lot of credit since he will not have dominated him. Hopkins, well, he'll probably fight once more because there is no way Ex can go out with a loss, which is probably why this fight is happening in the first place.