BREAKDOWN: CALZAGHE VS. JONESBy Joe DeMaria | November 07, 2008
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| On Saturday, November 8th, Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Championship Joe Calzaghe puts his title and undefeated record on the line when he takes on former pound-for-pound king and future Hall of Famer Roy Jones Jr. at Madison Square Garden and distributed live by HBO Pay-Per-View beginning at 9PM ET/6 PM PT.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
Light heavyweight supremacy! Calzaghe beat Hopkins, who beat Tarver, who beat Johnson, who beat Tarver, who beat Roy Jones…you know the drill by now. The winner here gets to call themselves the Light Heavyweight Champion of the World and they won't even have to wear a sanctioning body's belt to prove it.
Calzaghe says that this is his last fight, no ifs, ands or buts! I take that with a grain of salt. The Pride of Wales has had a terrific career with many underrated victories, including his wins over Chris Eubank, Robin Reid, Omar Sheika, Charles Brewer, Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler (nothing underrated about a win over Hopkins though). He remains unappreciated by many and will continue to be unless he fights in a couple more high-profile events. Roy Jones in New York City is a start, but there is much more to be done. Chad Dawson would be logical. A Bernard Hopkins rematch also makes sense since he took Kelly Pavlik out of the equation as an opponent. Maybe even a trip up to cruiserweight for the winner of the Cunningham–Adamek clash. No matter what though, there are big fights out there for him should he decide to fight on.
Roy Jones is looking for redemption. A climb back to the top of the light heavyweight division after being relegated to the scrap heap by so many would be a great way to close out his career. Jones says that everything he has done since the third Tarver fight has been leading up to a victory over Joe Calzaghe. A win here could result in a Hopkins rematch about 8 years too late or maybe a jump to cruiser since he's never won a title there. Settling the score with Glen Johnson is also a possibility. No matter what, there will be one last chance for Roy to do some talking and then ride off into the sunset before returning ringside to start calling fights again.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
Things will be very interesting early on. Both Calzaghe and Jones like to feel out and see what's in front of them before attacking, unless of course "RJ" shows up, but we haven't seen him since the second Montell Griffen fight. In other words, don't get your hopes up.
Roy's speed will create some problems for Calzaghe. If there is one thing Jones can still do, it's fire off individual shots with a great deal of speed and accuracy. A flash knockdown wouldn't be surprising in the least because Joe Cal likes to square up. When he does, a Roy Jones straight right will be sure to follow.
The problem I see for Jones has nothing to do with his handspeed or his accuracy though; it is all about his legs. Success early in the fight will not be a big problem for Jones because Calzaghe isn't going to jump on him, allowing Jones to get into a comfort zone. The problems will come as we pass the 5th and 6th rounds.
In order to win this fight, Roy Jones needs to stay in the center of the ring, fire counter shots, push Calzaghe back at times and circle constantly without going to the ropes every time he sees some pressure. Conversely, Joe Cal needs to let his hands go in bunches, push Jones back to the ropes and keep the fight at a pace that causes even the viewers to be short of breath.
What do you think is more likely to happen?
As I said, early on, Jones will have some success as Calzaghe determines the best way to attack while gauging Roy's speed and power. An even fight at the midway point would not surprise me in the least, but from the 7th round on, Roy's legs will tell the story here.
Felix Trinidad pushed Jones back to the ropes when he wanted to, as did Anthony Hanshaw and Prince Badi Ajamu and Glen Johnson…again, you know the drill.
THE CALL...
Outside of Jones landing a picture perfect right hand down the middle on a squared up Joe Calzaghe and either knocking him out or hurting him bad enough to eventually get him out of there, I just don't see him winning this fight.
Roy's legs are gone. They aren't gone to the point where Ajamu, Hanshaw or a blown-up, rusty Trinidad can do anything about it, but those guys aren't Joe Calzaghe. Not only that, but at some point, you have to wonder where a guy's head is when he says, "If I lose, who cares, but if HE loses…" Sorry, but going into a fight, you never like hearing the words "if", "I" and "lose" in succession.
After some early success, expect Jones to get overwhelmed by a non-stop barrage of punches coming from all sorts of angles from the champion. The fight will turn somewhere around the 7th and Jones just won't have the legs to answer Calzaghe. I have no problem saying that I will be rooting for Roy to give us one last great performance before calling it a career, but it won't happen on Saturday…not against Joe Calzaghe.
A late stoppage wouldn't surprise me due to Roy's tendency to lay against the ropes whenever pressured, but my sense is that we see the cards. 116-112…maybe 115-112 on the merits of Calzaghe suffering a flash knockdown early, but it'll be pretty clear who the winner is here. The biggest suspense will be AFTER the cards are read and will involve Bernard Hopkins trying to lure Calzaghe into a rematch in his own backyard. No matter what, we can be happy that these two finally shared a ring, even if it was years too late.
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