This Saturday, don't miss all the action as HBO Boxing After Dark hosts three sizzling showdowns as Juan Diaz vs. Paulie Malignaggi, Malcolm Klassen vs. Robert Guerrero and Danny Jacobs vs. Ishe Smith can be seen live on August 22 at 9:45 PM ET/PT. Check out a preview of how all the fights might play out.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
It seems like such a short time ago that Juan Diaz and Paulie Malignaggi were up-and-coming prospects without a loss on their record or the thought of a must-win fight in the future. Well, times have changed. Both men have lost, twice in fact, and both men find themselves in a position that very few fighters like to be in they have to win. In fairness though, these losses have not come against slouches. Diaz lost to Nate Campbell and Juan Manuel Marquez, while Malignaggi lost to Miguel Cotto and Ricky hatton; all very good fighters. There really isn't a ranking at a given weight at stake here. The fight will take place at a catch-weight of 138.5 pounds.
If Juan Diaz does come out on top, he remains in the thick of things at 135 pounds. There are plenty of interesting fights to be made there and HBO would certainly put him on their airwaves again. The natural fit would probably be another Boxing After Dark appearance against the winner of the Michael Katsidis vs. Vincente Escobedo bout, but don't overlook the Joan Guzman vs. Ali Funeka winner, Joel Casamayor, Edwin Valero or even Humberto Soto, who will likely be moving up in weight. There are plenty of fights for Diaz at lightweight, all of which are interesting on paper.
If Malignaggi is able to pull of the upset, he would find himself with some potentially interesting opportunities at junior welter. Recently crowned Marco Maidana is in need of an opponent with some name recognition, as is Devon Alexander. Both fights make some sense, but the one fight that might make the most sense is against Nate Campbell, who recently bowed out of his fight against Timothy Bradley after suffering a cut due to a butt. After he was unfairly given the loss, Campbell is chomping at the bit to get another meaningful fight and with Bradley focused on bigger and better things than The Galaxxy Warrior or The Magic Man, Campbell and Malignaggi might make a lot of sense as dance partners.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
From the time this one starts until the moment it ends, Juan Diaz is going to look to take everything out of Paulie Malignaggi's legs. It's no secret that Paulie wants to get back to using movement and being more evasive, so the easiest way to combat that is with a style like The Baby Bull's; jab his way in, push Malignaggi back, work the body and find out just how much sweating off that extra weight will bother The Magic Man.
For Malignaggi, this is going to be all about setting the ideal pace and distance. Any time Diaz spends not letting his hands go is time that Malignaggi is doing what he wants. Lateral movement will be key for Paulie; fire the jab and straight right and then be somewhere else. If Diaz does close the distance, tie up on the inside and don't let him work there.
Early on, this one will be interesting because when Malignaggi is at his best, he is elusive, quick, frustrating and can stay out of harm's way with his defense. The best example of what he wants to do here would be the first Lovemore N'Dou fight. N'Dou fights in a manner similar to Juan Diaz and while he is not as fast or as polished, he is stronger and more durable. Malignaggi was able to do what he wanted in there without any real danger presented to him. It was his best and most complete effort. From the outset, look for Paulie to work on setting a slower pace while trying to compile points and keep that body out of Baby Bull's wheelhouse.
As we approach the middle rounds, the Juan Diaz jab is going to become a very important punch. It is not only very underrated, but it's probably Baby Bull's most important weapon. Without it, closing distance is something that becomes that much more difficult. Distance will continue to shorten with much more ease, but Malignaggi is a tough kid. He stood up to Miguel Cotto and Ricky Hatton, so he will certainly standup to Juan Diaz.
But in the end, this will come back to the question Juan Diaz wants to make Malignaggi answer about the weight
what did losing those extra couple of pounds take out of him? Hell, what did those extra couple of pounds help Diaz to maintain?
THE CALL...
I actually see this as a more competitive fight than most. Juan Diaz does not have the kind of power that is going to intimidate Malignaggi, who has been through it with bigger, stronger and better fighters. Conversely, Malignaggi does not have the type of skills that Diaz is going to be blown away by; he has learned lessons in there from some very good fighters. Based upon who these men have lost to, it appears that you have to be very good to beat them.
After some early success, Maliganggi will begin to find Juan Diaz a tough guy to blunt offensively. Consistent work will tell the difference in this one and while Malignaggi will be good and he will win his share of rounds, the home court advantage and activity will prove to be too much. Would I be stunned to see a more movement-oriented version of Malignaggi find his way to win a decision? No, not really, especially if it were some place other than Houston
but it isn't. Give me Juan Diaz by unanimous decision here. 116-112 sounds about right and maybe a card that's too wide thrown in for good measure in a fight that is more interesting than it is entertaining.
THE UNDERCARD...
Malcolm Klassen is not well-known in the States, but make no mistake, the guy can fight. He has fast hands, some versatility and does not fade. Robert Guerrero has been a star in the making for a while, but just when he gets close, he cannot get over the hump. He has been through his fair share of trials and tribulations and losing a boxing match is not the end all for him. Guerrero should win this fight. He is the better schooled fighter with the better pedigree, who by all accounts has had an unbelievable camp, but something is just not sitting right with me. Something in my gut likes Klassen to pull out a decision win here. It will be close and will almost definitely steal the show as Klassen's work outdoes Guerrero's power punching.
The opening fight of the night gives us Daniel Jacobs in a step up against Ishe Smith. The upset of the night already occurred when Ishe Smith was given another spot on an HBO card. Smith has done nothing but disappoint when he has stepped up to a bigger fight. It's not that Smith is without skills because, on the contrary, he is quite skilled
it's just that he does not seem willing to let his hands go enough to win a big fight. Jacobs won't look good here because that is Smith's goal, but he will do enough
or Ishe won't do enough
to ensure The Golden Child is able to continue his winning ways.