This writer seriously thought current THE RING World Junior Welterweight Champion/newly crowned WBO welterweight titlist Manny Pacquiao would fail to defeat Miguel Cotto on Saturday night. This writer was very wrong.
It's not like most of us writers who lay down a prediction are just pulling it out of a hat or playing a favorite. We tend to agonize over the more difficult potential outcomes, doing our best to come up with something educated to share with our readers.
And, as I laugh at my own misfortune in the prediction department, I find that the fighter I get wrong the most is Pacquiao, 50-3-2 (38). Damn, from here on out, I just need to take the easy route and just pick "Pac."
Just picking a fighter just to pick him, even as a jest, is somewhat an injustice to his opponent. But in Pacquiao's case, he makes it too damn hard to not, outright, pick him as a winner. Should the opportunity to finally face Floyd Mayweather Jr. emerge, believe you me, I'm picking Manny. And, unlike a few other boxing writers, I'm not doing it just to ingratiate myself to the Filipino community.
In the thoroughly unnecessary September catchweight comeback fight between Mayweather and current THE RING World Lightweight Champion Juan Manuel Marquez, we saw not just a dominant performance by the former welterweight king over a champion who pushed his luck at even 135, but a template for Pacquiao's success should "Money" finally buck up and buy a ticket to the real pound-for-pound sweepstakes.
Against Marquez, Mayweather was just plain faster. And Mayweather so immaculately dictated the pace against the lightweight champ that speed, above-and-beyond, might have been a waste of energy during the lulls when it just wasn't necessary. Mayweather beautifully set the pace with his jab, taking the oft-considered "clinic" approach any gracefully educated fighter knows and loves and turning it into a downright lecture.
But it was still Juan Manuel Marquez on the receiving end of the lecture. And I don't care who thinks it was a challenging or a better-than-tune-up fight for Mayweather. That's a lie. And it got Mayweather to near the top of the welterweight and pound-for-pound ratings.
Another lie.
Equally bogus, in all fairness, was Pacquiao's own installation in the welterweight ratings after beating Oscar De La Hoya in December of 2008. Pacquiao would be removed when dropping down to 140 to face and demolish former THE RING World Junior Welterweight Champion Ricky Hatton. This time, against Cotto, Pacquiao earned his right to secure a spot in the 147 top ten.
And after a rest, Pacquiao will have to make a decision regarding whether to stay at junior welterweight to defend his legitimate championship or stick around at 147 and lure Mayweather from the woodwork.
There are really only so many top-flight guys at welter who Pacquiao can challenge or defend his WBO welterweight against. WBA titlist Shane Mosley faces WBC titleholder Andre Berto on January 30th. Former IBF titleholder Joshua Clottey and former WBA titlist Luis Collazo would make nice little defenses but, really, is there a greater demand for any other fight but Pacquiao-Mayweather?
In an article I recently wrote for Convicted Artist Magazine, prior to the Mayweather-Marquez contest, I referred to Marquez as the "Surrogate Pacquiao." I meant it. I saw Marquez as nothing more than a substitute for Pacquiao when the latter was the more formidable challenge for the undefeated Mayweather. In my view, Mayweather opted to legitimize his preference due to Marquez' scraps against Pacquiao. Maybe he thought he could knock Marquez out in one fight, doing what Pacquiao couldn't do in two. Maybe he thought a landslide would serve him just as well. Now, there aren't any effigies left. If Mayweather wants to beat Pacquiao, he's going to have to face the real thing.
I've stated before that Mayweather's effect on his most rabid following could be summed up in a (if I do say so myself) catchy little designation: The Bland Leading the Blind. It's an idea I firmly stand behind because, although Mayweather is and always has been an insanely talented fighter, his talents often make for some boring fistic fare.
And his devoted just dig it.
Against Pacquiao, there won't be time for bland.
Pacquiao possesses an energy level that's consistent and mesmerizing. Against a solid welterweight machine like Cotto, 34-2 (27), Pacquiao was relentless and seemingly without fatigue, dealing an unsavory beatdown to a brave, unyielding fighter. Where Mayweather generally and easily dictates the pace of a fight, Pacquiao dictates pace like a shock absorber, subtly dipping back to reduce the effect of a punch then charges forward, throwing with abandon. Pacquiao doesn't just dictate pace, he outright controls a fight.
Mayweather knows how to control an opponent with his patented shoulder rolls and perplexing movement, while strapped to the ropes. Manny swarms and pounds his man against the ropes. Mayweather makes any distance work and can out-counter the finest counterpunchers. Manny creates an artificial claustrophobia, making it difficult for an opponent to think or even breathe. This was a major part of Pacquiao's success when pressuring Cotto, who had little choice but to desperately retreat as his mauling continued.
How can Mayweather even dream of setting the pace of a fight he has no control over? WellÂ…he can't. We have no examples to glean sufficient comparative information from.
What's this all mean? Well, I guess it means that whenÂ…if Floyd Mayweather finally decides to stop the dancing and face Manny Pacquiao in what would be the most anticipated fight of 2010, with merely my own shot-in-the-dark ramblings driving my short-term judgment, I'm hedging my bet (if I were a betting man) on Pacquiao.
This time, maybe I'll truly be right for the right reasons instead of just thinking I'll be right for the right reasons. Right?