Don't miss all the action this Saturday, April 17, when undisputed middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik defends his titles against challenger Sergio Martinez at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey and televised live on HBO World Championship Boxing at 10PM ET/7PM PT. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
First things first...it means a challenge has been issued. Our friend John Chavez from over at theboxingtruth.com wants his title back. Once known as the boxing bookie, but now the boxing rookie, he wants a chance to regain what was once rightfully his. While there was no formal video call out, there was a phone call which led to a discussion of this fight
and now, here we are. This is a two fight challenge he has issued, first this Saturday and then the Carl Froch vs. Mikkel Kessler war next Saturday. We'll keep you in suspense over who is siding with which fighter on that one. Win both and regain the title, or in my case, just defend it. Good luck, John!
It seems like an eternity since we have seen Kelly Pavlik in a meaningful fight. The good news is that when he does fight, it is for the Middleweight championship of the world. Between Pavlik, Sergio Martinez and Paul Williams, there is a terrific triangle at middleweight. I don't see a scenario where any of these fights won't deliver, regardless how you match them up.
For The Ghost, this is a return fight of sorts; a chance to remind everyone why they were excited about him and what he brings to the table. Winning is paramount, but almost as important is how Pavlik wins. No one wants to see a gift. A clear win, or even better, a knockout would restore most of that luster Bernard Hopkins managed to dull in one single night. If Pavlik proves that he is the favorite here for good reason and goes on to handle Sergio Martinez, something we haven't truly seen done in better than ten years, odds are pretty good that the Paul Williams fight could be revisited. There are certainly issues, however, before they even step to the table, with Paul Williams being handled by Al Haymon and Kelly Pavlik under the Top Rank umbrella, but if we are to take Bob Arum at his word, this fight can and will be made if the money is right, assuming Williams beats Kermit Cintron next month. In other words, who knows? The other possibility being thrown out there for Pavlik is a move to super middleweight for a fight against Lucian Bute, who is noticeably short on opponents with the Super Six in full swing. He so short on opponents, in fact, that they are tossing Edison Miranda in there with him in a split sight doubleheader on HBO. If Pavlik loses, it actually would not be the end of the world for him. While it would mean that he is no longer in the driver's seat at middleweight, he still brings a huge fanbase with him and he could be paid just fine to fight at home or take his show, along with a slew of Buckeye faithful from Ohio, to AC again regardless who he fights.
It seems that every time Sergio Martinez steps in the ring these days, it's his chance to show the world how good he is and get that marquee win he has been hungry for. He beat Kermit Cintron twice, yet still was only able to walk away with a draw. He fought Paul Williams on near even terms, actually winning the fight on my scorecard, only to be left losing a majority decision. In fact, a judge by the name of Pierre Benoist somehow saw the fight 119-110 for Williams, finding only one round to give to Martinez. So now, at the age of 35, he is getting what will be one of his last shots at a big win as he fights for the largest prize he has ever gone after in his career, the middleweight championship. It is unfortunate too because Martinez is a supremely skilled boxer with the mentality of a fighter who is as entertaining as he is good. Sure, he can make some fights easier on himself, but he has that instinct of getting his immediate revenge in there if you catch him clean. If Martinez wins, it's one of two fights for him, each one a rematch and both will be as anticipated as they are entertaining. Whether it is a second go around with Pavlik or Paul Williams, it will be one to look forward to. A loss for Martinez might be a tough blow to recover from. He is not the type of guy managers and promoters really want to put their fighter in with unless they have to, so his best bet might be a return to 154 to target the CintronWilliams loser, or maybe even try to get Antonio Margarito in the ring again, some ten plus years later, should he miss out on the Pacquiao sweepstakes. Either way, it is going to be a step down in event status.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
How interesting is this fight? To me, this is the most intriguing fight in the first half of the 2010 boxing calendar. I have talked to people on both sides of this one, and in each case, they make a compelling argument for who will win and why. I like both fighters and what they bring to the table. I have been especially high on Sergio Martinez for quite a while; his style is very difficult to deal with. With Pavlik, you know what you are going to get, but unless you are strong enough and slick enough, he is going to eventually catch you. Even Bernard Hopkins, who seemingly was never even touched, commented on how heavy The Ghosts hands were.
No matter what, Martinez is going to have to fight with the more exhausting style in order to come out with a win. Stick
move
dodge
pop
slide
constantly varying his defense and offense with everything in fast motion. On the other hand, Pavlik can fight that consistently forward moving style behind his jab and a straight right, being sure to mix in some nasty body work and his uppercut when Martinez ends up on the ropes; all the while banking on the fact that what you train for in Pavlik is not necessarily what you get because his shots get on you so much more quickly than it appears.
It will be interesting to see what kind of pace is set from the opening bell. While Martinez is going to have to fight at a much faster pace, burning up a lot more energy, he is also going to need to be aware of keeping something in the tank for those championship rounds. Rounds one through three will see the heated exchange here and there, the Pavlik pressure, and the Martinez footwork. It's not so much a handspeed disparity that Martinez needs to leverage off of, but it's his footspeed advantage that he needs to make the big difference with in there but again, not at the expense of using up all of his energy late. Through the first third of the fight, Martinez will look like the better boxer because, quite simply, he is
but is he the better fighter?
Sergio Martinez should hold a healthy lead on the cards, provided our friend Pierre Benoist isn't ringside, mainly on the merits of his movement and clean shots. I expect him to make excellent work of the jab to the body in order to setup the straight left upstairs, and then work his way back down again. By the time Pavlik is able to mount anything, he will be gone. As we find our way to the middle rounds though, Pavlik will begin getting off with a bit more frequency. The jab will disrupt Martinez and, in a sense, Pavlik's willingness to counter and not just let his hands go constantly, like Paul Williams, will give Martinez less opportunity to land clean counters. When Martinez is backed up against the ropes, Pavlik will be sure to fire that straight right and hit anything he can find. If he starts landing it in the middle of the ring, Martinez will have problems.
The scores will begin to tighten a bit, but nothing that has you believing that the pride of Youngstown is winning. He may be seizing control, but he won't be leading on the cards.
Against Paul Williams, it was clear that the constant pressure began to wear on Martinez. Pavlik brings the same kind of pressure, though it comes behind less activity. I am not sure that will matter. Martinez is 35 now and it's hard to fight at the pace he does when you are approaching the wrong side of your mid 30's, so I guess the real question here is whether or not Pavlik can close the show.
THE CALL...
This fight is going to have a little bit of everything in there
action, intensity, skill, drama, probably even a little blood too.
Entering into the championship rounds, Sergio Martinez will be clinging to a dwindling lead as he is forced to fight the type of fight Pavlik prefers. The pressure will slow him down a bit, as will his fighting instinct. Martinez has the skill level of a top boxer, but he wants to throw down as soon as you get the better of him. To be fair, though, Kelly Pavlik has become very underrated, all on the basis of a loss to an all-time great, who arguably had the best night of his career against him. The Ghost has huge power, terrific stamina, excellent accuracy, and the ability to recover from a shot quicker than most. Even if you find a way to beat him, you will be forced to work hard in there.
After showing that he has the superior skill set, Sergio Martinez will be forced to rely a lot more on will to hold on in there and walk away with his biggest win. If he stays on the ropes too much, he could get hurt by something early in the fight and he knows this, so he will do everything to avoid that. In the process, he will tire.
Give me Pavlik by 11th round TKO in a fight he finds himself behind on the cards in, but gaining control of as the end nears. When all is said and done, the first half of 2010 will have a tough time topping what Kelly Pavlik and Sergio Martinez provide us with.
BONUS PICK...
Lucian Bute against Edison Miranda
why?
Miranda always has a punchers chance in there because he is strong and wild, but his chin has been dented badly and with his style, that is not a good combination.
It will be entertaining in spurts, but I think Bute finds Miranda's chin with one of those straight left counters late and hurts him. He will fight a reasonably cautious fight up to that point and have to make the decision to either go for the kill or be happy with a wide decision win. I will take Bute by a TKO in the 10th if he chooses to please his hometown crowd
and I think he will.
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.