Don't miss all the action this Saturday, July 31, when lightweight king Juan Manuel Marquez and challenger Juan Diaz attempt to relive the action of their 2009 "Fight of the Year" performance when both men face off in the rematch at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada and televised on HBO Pay-Per-View beginning at 9PM ET/6PM PT. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
The lightweight division is a bit of mess. Juan Manuel Marquez is recognized as the champion there, though he is approaching 37 and hasn't fought at the weight in almost 18 months. 135 pounds is typically one of the glamour divisions, but right now, it is actually devoid of any truly captivating matchups...and that's why we have this fight. Marquez-Diaz was the "Fight of the Year" in '09 and, regardless of the fact that each fighter is coming off of a loss and they both have looked less than impressive recently, it is tough to imagine a boring fight between these two.
Juan Diaz went through all of 2009 looking spent and has yet to enter the ring in 2010. First he lost to Marquez, after making the fight tough on him in the early going, and then he lost to Paulie Malignaggi, even though his hometown judges awarded him a decision, and he finished off the year fighting Malignaggi again, except this time, the judges got it right by scoring in favor of the Brooklyn native.
With that said, the past 12 months don't really matter too much because the winner here will have his eyes set on greener pastures. Not only will he be considered the king of the 135 pounders, but he will also set himself up well with a probable move to 140 pounds and a potential fight against any of the top dogs there, whether it be Amir Khan, Timothy Bradly, Devon Alexander or even Victor Ortiz. The loser could stay at lightweight and target Michael Katsidis or Roberto Guerrero, or who knows, maybe they go to junior welter as well and try to get Zab Judah in the ring.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
It's hard to envision this fight looking all that much different than the first one. If Juan Diaz is going to be effective, he is going to have to come forward behind a stiff jab, stay active, use his handspeed, and keep Marquez on his back foot. On the other hand, Marquez is going to try to counter Diaz as he presses, lands clean shots, and keeps the fight at a pace he likes.
In the very early stages of this fight, I wouldn't expect the type of action we had in the first fight. Both fighters will be looking to get their legs under them and get into a flow, but at the same time, neither guy is comfortable just sitting back and doing nothing. Early on in his career, Marquez was quite content to dissect opponents without taking risks, but now, he is more than willing to punch with whoever is on the other side of the ring. Juan Diaz is more of a wildcard because there is no "early on in his career"; he is still only 26 and we have really only seen one style from him, so if he is somehow uncomfortable, it is hard to imagine him coming up with something else to work with.
After the first round or two have passed, expect the action to pick up and both fighters to begin getting into exchanges. Someone is getting cashed out on Saturday night and both men are proud, so they are going to do everything they can to prevent it from being themselves.
As the middle rounds approach, the fight will begin to take on the shape of the first fight; a slightly dampened version, but intense and entertaining nonetheless. Diaz will lead and flurry, Marquez will counter with precision and at times appear slower. Rounds will be close at times, and clear at others, with activity getting the nod here and there, and precision and skill getting it at other times.
Going into the later rounds, both fighters will have put on a good show, blood will be flowing, and while Diaz will still be in it, Marquez will be hanging on to a lead.
THE CALL...
It seems as though the older fighter actually has more left than the younger fighter here. To me, both men are in serious decline. From the first go around, it was clear that Marquez was losing his legs, and when we saw Paulie Malignaggi pushing Juan Diaz around at times, it only accentuated that point. Since that first fight, Diaz has looked downright bad at times, and Marquez has looked slow, and to makes matters worse, he blew up in weight, only to be forced to come back down for this fight.
Even with both fighters in decline, I still expect a very good fight. In fact, when two guys put on a good show when they are closer to their peak, the rematch can be even more entertaining as their speed and reflexes erode a bit. Many seem to be writing Diaz off here, and while I lean toward Marquez, I don't think we can just overlook the weight jump and return to 135. That is never good. When all is said and done though, whether it is by decision or late stoppage, I do like the older man to come out on top. Officially, I will take Marquez by TKO in the 11th, but I don't expect the one-sided beating so many seem to be counting on.
BONUS PICKS...
When we get an undercard like this, it would be unfair to totally overlook it. It's a shame we can't expect the same type of lineup when the main event actually warrants pay-per-view status.
Daniel Jacobs is sold as the next big thing and I am just not sure I buy it. Dmitry Pirog is a solid fighter, he has that European style down well, but unlike many other Euro fighters, he mixes in some American aspects: he bends the knees to get down low and to the body at times, he punches in combination when he sees the opportunity, and he will mix in some angles here and there. Unfortunately, he doesn't do anything in particular all that great. He is solid, but Jacobs handlers put him in here to get him an easy title. The fight will be competitive in spots, but if Jacobs is even half as good as many believe, he should win here. Jacobs by decision in a fight that he actually has to work for is what I am thinking.
Roberto Guerrero is moving up to lightweight for good and this will be his third fight there in his last four. Joel Casamayor is crafty, dirty, nasty, and knows every single trick in the book, but he is 39, has plenty of wear on him, and doesn't really seem to be fighting for anything in particular outside of an occasional payday now. I think Guerrero's speed, jab, boxing ability and youth will serve him well, just as long as he doesn't get dragged into anything ugly by Casamayor's tactics. I think The Ghost would love to make a point by stopping the former Cuban Olympian, but I am just not sure it is the best approach for him. Guerrero by clear decision is the call, as Casamayor does everything in his power to turn it into a miserable fight.
Lastly, Jorge Linares is making his second appearance after getting blitzed by Juan Carlos Salgado. Last time out, Linares looked very ordinary against Francisco Lorenzo, but we'll give him a pass. After all, it was his first fight after being KO'd. Rocky Juarez seems to get chance after chance, and it is difficult to understand why, because he still can be a threat if he ever finds a home for his left hook. Unfortunately, he seems to get stuck in low gear and is all too happy to just come forward. Sure, he did get hosed in the Litzau fight when the ref ruled that the eye swelling was not caused by a cut, but still, it was the same Juarez. If Linares does not win by a clear decision here, I think it is about time to question just how good of a prospect he is. Linares by a wide decision is the pick.
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.