Don't miss all the action this Saturday, August 14, as WBC light heavyweight champion Jean Pascal defends his title against undefeated Chad Dawson at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and televised live on HBO World Championship Boxing at 10:30PM ET/7:30PM PT. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
These days, light heavyweight seems to be hurting. There are not that many interesting fights to be made, and while this fight is for the Ring belt, the real champ [Bernard Hopkins] is 45 and inactive. To make matters worse, there aren't many fighters coming up who are capable of altering the landscape all that much, unless the super middles decide to make a jump. With that said, this may the best fight that could be made at the weight and it should prove to be interesting.
Chad Dawson is considered to be one of the guys to help carry the future of the sport. He has boxing skills, athletic ability, and has proven willing to fight most anyone. Unfortunately, his career seems to be stalling a bit. He got caught up in consecutive rematches, which caused him to spend the past 28 months tied up with both Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson, two times a piece, and no one else. A win here would likely surpass his previous career best victory, and that was against Tomasz Adamek. Granted, Adamek was quite clearly weight-drained, but it was still a very good performance. Who would Dawson fight next should he come out on top? That's tough to say
maybe Tavoris Cloud, maybe Lucian Bute, or perhaps even Bernard Hopkins. With a loss, you can probably scratch off all three of those names and expect some sort of comeback opponent, and hopefully an uptick in activity level going forward.
Jean Pascal is a bit of an unknown to the American boxing fan, but he is a bona fide star back home in Quebec and where he fights in Montreal. Thus far, he has looked impressive since his move up to light heavyweight where he fought three times last year; in fact, he was in the ring one additional time at super middleweight before deciding to head north 7 pounds. It is safe to say that Pascal would have liked to keep that rigorous schedule, but he suffered a shoulder injury and was forced to undergo surgery, so this Saturday will be his first fight back from it. A win moves him to the front of the line and could set up a Canadian mega-fight with Lucian Bute or any one of the same fighters Dawson would have lined up. Strangely enough, a loss wouldn't be that horrible for Pascal either, because unlike Dawson, he can draw very well and would still sellout the arena fighting nearly anyone in Montreal.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
I cannot remember the last time Chad Dawson stepped in the ring and didn't have a rather large speed advantage, whether it was at super middleweight or light heavyweight. For once, Dawson will face a guy who has plenty of hand speed too, and while he may be just a hair slower, I actually think Pascal does have the quicker release of the two. How will Dawson react to a guy that can fire with him, instead of having to try and find a way to time him or break him down slowly?
The stylistic match-up here is a very interesting one. Dawson is more of a textbook boxer with fast hands, a nice jab, solid legs, and good defensive skills. He will draw you in and counter, or he will flurry and sidestep. Jean Pascal has a style predicated on his reflexes. His hands are often low, he will fire quick shots if he sees an opening and spring back again, and he will war on the inside if you are willing to make it that sort of fight.
From the outset, it will be very interesting to see how each fighter approaches the other. My guess is that Bad Chad will try to set a pace he likes. He has tired late before and against Pascal, that is something he wants to avoid at all costs. Jab
flurry
move
all controlled, all with the hopes of keeping the fight from getting out of hand. Pascal will be taking a different approach as he waits for Dawson to make a move, fires a shot off, and tries to engage him before stepping back and reassessing.
As the middle rounds pass, scoring may prove to be difficult as Dawson will land the flurries, play some defense and box, while Pascal will land the harder single shots and may even hurt the American champ once or twice. In fact, some seriously differing cards would be far from a surprise.
After what will be an effective start for Dawson, expect to see Pascal begin to force the fight a bit to create a more up-tempo battle as he tries to test the champions stamina. This fight may not be the most action packed, but it will be tense and it will be intriguing.
THE CALL...
This fight is a struggle to call, at least in my eyes. Pascal's shoulder is a real wildcard here and it is difficult to know how he will react to the surgery without actually seeing him in a real fight. Conversely, the last 2 ½ years of Chad Dawson's career has seen him fighting the same two fighters in Tarver and Johnson and they are nothing like Pascal. In fact, both of them are old, on the downside, and slow.
On one side, I see Dawson able to land some clean punches that gain Pascal's respect, turns him more conventional and less willing to fire from any angle he feels, and banks enough early rounds to hold off the challenger's late surge.
On the other side, I see Pascal coming on down the stretch as Dawson tires a bit. After some difficulties early, the hometown fighter will use the crowd to take advantage of a champion he has been able to hurt a couple times and either stops him late or scores a decision win based upon his opponent going into survival mode.
Sounds like I should just pick a draw, doesn't it? I probably should, but let's go with the upset pick here and take Jean Pascal to win a close, possibly disputed bout on the cards. The crowd will help Pascal a great deal, but so will his chin and stamina advantage. It will be a good fight
interesting fight
even a somewhat dramatic fight, but not the most action-packed fight. Let's call it 115-113
maybe 114-113 on the merit of a knockdown and don't be surprised to see the judges end up split on their scorecards.
Questions
comments
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disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.