Larry Merchant once called the sport of boxing "the theatre of the unexpected" to capture its unpredictable nature. This past month has proven this to be especially true as boxing fans were treated to a month chalked full of exciting upsets. The middle weeks of April put a pause on many young careers as the favored fighter of four bouts not only fell short of their expected victories, but lost their coveted undefeated records as well.
Former WBC welterweight titlist Andre Berto saw his green belt change hands in a back-and-forth, action-packed bout against contender Victor Ortiz, who made his debut one division north of his former weight class. Ortiz, crafted to be the next coming of the Golden Boy, previously fell short of his predecessor's legacy as he had been unable to shake his "no-mas" moment against the Argentine Marcos Maidana, who nearly suffered an upset himself against the cagey veteran Erik Morales a week prior.
On the undercard of Morales/Maidana, the planned parade of comeback victories for the relentless James Kirkland would come to a sudden halt as the "Mandingo Warrior" would find himself on his back three times before finally being knocked out in the first round by the virtual unknown from Japan, Nobuhiro Ishida. Perhaps Ishida's success can be attributed to a miracle motivation inspired by the recent tragedies in Japan, but the outcome still came as such an incredible shock that the HBO crew didn't have anyone on hand to translate an interview with the Japanese victor.
One night prior to the Kirkland upset, hard punching prospect David Lemieux lost in an unexpected comeback performance by the rugged Marco Antonio Rubio. Lemieux controlled the early rounds with thudding blows to clearly dictate the pace of the fight, though the supposedly reveled power of Lemieux never seemed to bother Rubio. The durable Mexican appeared to have been stringing his young opponent along the entire time as he later adjusted to score a TKO win in the backyard of the Montreal native.
Rubio's countrymen, Orlando Salido, would also claim victory in his opponent's backyard by beating Puerto Rico's undefeated featherweight champion Juan Manual Lopez after a controversial stoppage in the 8th round. Though many observers contest the judgment of referee Roberto Ramirez Jr., few can deny that the tempo of the fight was leaning in Salido's favor as the champion Lopez began getting tagged more than we're used to seeing.
There is a saying that all great fighters lose at least once in their careers, but questions inevitably surface when we see a rising star fall for the first time. Of the four upsets we witnessed, the possibility to bounce back is definitely there for some, and a bit less likely for others. Of the four undefeated upsets in April, here's my assessment of the most likely comebacks and why:
Juan Manuel Lopez
Lopez falls on the top of my list mostly because the fight shouldn't have been stopped in the first place. JuanMa was not only conscious, but had just finished throwing a left hook right before the ref waved off the fight. There have been countless examples of fighters coming back from being battered around and knocked down in a fight, and with the massive punching power of Lopez, a come-from-behind knockout was a definite possibility. There is no question that Salido began controlling the match as the fight progressed, but Lopez never stopped coming forward with punches of intent. Though Lopez's recent performances may have cast a shadow over the once frightful wrecking ball reputation, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the much-needed kick in the ass to restart his career. Expect JuanMa to return to the ring inspired and ready to go.
Andre Berto
Though the Haitian American never seemed to regain his legs after the second round, he still managed to fight a memorable sixth round by putting Ortiz on the seat of his pants and nearly knocking him out in a back and forth Round of the Year candidate. Also, unlike the other upsets of the month, the matchup between Berto and Ortiz wasn't solely a showcase for Berto, but a legitimate opportunity for the underdog to prove himself. Ortiz, once criticized for his heart, held wins over decent competition and was still considered a rising prospect in some circles. With reported weight problems in past fights, perhaps last Saturday proved the welterweight class of 147 is best suited for the Oxnard native. Berto definitely showed flaws in his arsenal a questionable stamina, a susceptible chin, and a lackluster effort in the final stretch, but at least it was against game competition. Not a loss to be ashamed about by any means.
David Lemieux
Lemieux's loss reflected more of miscalculation and underestimation of his opponent rather than a lack of skills, though the future is still unclear for the young Canadian prospect. Lemieux easily controlled the opening rounds with solid fundamentals and sporadic power punches, but Rubio progressed through the hard shots seemingly unfazed. The downfall came at Lemieux's reliance on power and squaring up anytime he landed anything remotely meaningful as Rubio effectively boxed to a TKO victory in the 7th round. At 22 years old, Lemieux is still young enough to adapt his style, and perhaps his corner saved him from a Jeff Lacy type beating that would traumatize the remainder of a fighter's career. But the questions remain. How will his KO power stand up to tougher comp? How will he stand up to harder punching opponents? For me, Lemieux's legitimacy is still a big question mark.
James Kirkland
Loaded gloves? Poisoned steaks? Fixed fights? There really isn't anything logical that can explain Kirkland's performance, especially when he's taken shots from harder punchers in the past. There is little evidence to show that Kirkland is capable of adopting a more defensive posture in exchange for the face first aggressive style he's assumed his entire career, and without a solid chin, his habit of hitting while being hit just won't work. Of the four upsets this month, I give Kirkland the least chance of a comeback for the precise reason that Ishida was meant to be a walk through, chosen intentionally because the Kirkland camp pegged him as a light hitter, whereas all the other matchups of the month were either a step up in competition or bouts against legitimate opponents. This was meant to be a complete comeback, a stay busy fight, yet it turned out to be a train wreck. Sure, we could always chalk it up as an anomaly in his career, but I wouldn't bet on it.
In tradition with Merchant's phrase, comebacks are just as unpredictable as the fights themselves. Sometimes a loss can be the reality check a boxer needs; other times the ghosts of defeat continually haunt a fighter anytime he enters the ring. Like any speculation, these predictions are never set in stone, so let me know what you think in the comments below.