Hey FightHype fight fans, this week I have no crude references to my sack or to showing my sack. To be honest, the holiday season has my sack hanging pretty low at the moment. Thankfully, a wave of heavyweight-related emails flooded my inbox to lift my spirits just at the perfect time. Anyway, here’s the best of this past week’s batch of reader questions:
Joshua-Wilder Belongs in Vegas
Paul,
Whats up? AJ v Wilder is a big fight regardless to what people want to believe. AJ v Wilder is by far a Vegas fight. It would be senseless to host the fight in the UK-- Simply because it would shut down any revenue stream from the American Market. The only revenue they'd be able to capitalize off of would be the broadcasting rights. However, Brits travel very well and they don't mind watching live boxing matches at 3am. The Brits will pack any American stadium and buy PPV boxing matches for a fight in Las Vegas. Americans won't travel to the UK, nor will they pay to see a PPV fight at 2pm on a Saturday. In addition, a live gate in Las Vegas would be more profitable than a live gate at Wembley... What's your thoughts?
-- Nail Rahman
On the surface, you’d be tempted to say that since Joshua is a Brit and the much larger draw, Joshua-Wilder belongs in the UK. But when you look at the numbers (provided by The Mirror UK), that reasoning kind of falls to pieces.
Joshua-Klitschko last year, which drew 90,000 to Wembley Stadium, did a live gate of about 8 million British Pounds (just slightly under $11 million US Dollars). Stacking those live gate numbers up against what could reasonably be expected in Vegas, it seems likely that a Joshua-Wilder bout could pass that live gate revenue by a fairly substantial amount. Actually, if it even did as well as Calzaghe-Hopkins in 2008 (with a live gate of $11.6 million, according to the Nevada State Athletic Commission), it would bring in almost a million dollars more in live gate revenue than Joshua-Klitschko.
As for PPV money, well, Joshua-Klitschko generated 25.4 million British Pounds from the UK broadcast, plus 4 million from Klitschko’s German TV home, RTL, and 1.5 million from US TV. That adds up to about 31 million British Pounds (or just under $42 million US Dollars). a Joshua-Wilder PPV, at 60 bucks a pop, would have to generate 1.4 million buys (after promoters dish out the required half to cable companies) in order to break even. But, that’s just in the US. One would assume that the UK PPV would do very well, even with the late night/early morning scheduling. On paper, at least, Joshua-Wilder could make more in PPV revenue, overall, if it happened in the US.
It’s easy to envision a Vegas-hosted Joshua-Wilder bout generating significantly more revenue than what could be had in the UK right now—and putting it off to build up both fighters in the American market could make for even more US money down the line. But ego and familiarity and general logistics for Joshua and his team certainly come into play. They want to fight at home-- because they can and because that’s where Joshua and his promoter, Eddie Hearn, feel more comfortable. If it’s purely about money, Vegas would be in the running to host the bout, but I suspect that money is not the only issue when it comes to where to stage the fight.
Wilder vs. Joshua vs. Povetkin
Hey Paul Happy New Year.
I am looking forward to this years matches.
I was doing some research on the heavyweight division and was comparing boxing resumes between Wilder, Joshua, and Povetkin and realize that Povetkin has just as good a chance as either champions. He’s only loss to Klitschko, but he has beat common opponents in a more decisive way than both Wilder and Joshua. He KO’d Duhaupas in the 6th round, while it took Wilder until the 11th and that was a tko. He also KO’d Takam in the 10th round; Joshua also stopped him in the 10th round, but again it was a tko. I know what y’all about to say he’s a cheat, yeah but these days who ain’t cheating? Others just haven’t got caught yet. His weakness will be his height, which is 6’2, which is very small to these modern day giants and, second, his 75-inch reach. Most of these giants these days have a 83-85 inch reach. At the end of the day, I believe that Wilder will be the last man standing due to his big right hand and his unorthodox style of fighting. Joshua doesn’t move his head a lot and he gets tired quickly, and we all know that his chin is also suspect, so if Wilder catches him like Klitschko did, he will finish him. I know I will get a lot of flack on this one but that’s the good thing about opinions-- we all have one. Oh yeah, my pick for up and coming champ will be Daniel Dubois!! Happy New Year to all
-- Jay cee
Hi Jay cee. Povetkin, provided he can keep clean and/or clear up whatever misunderstanding he had regarding questionable substances, belongs in the mix. I see him doing well against both Joshua and Wilder, but size/weight may be an issue. Still, he can crack a little and is a significantly better skilled fighter than both. He’s definitely a live dog and if either Joshua or Wilder can beat him, it would be a major name to add to their resumes.
Life Beyond Joshua-Wilder
Magno. Is the heavyweight division just a two man division? Just Joshua and Wilder? What I’m getting at is whether there’s anything waiting to happen after these two fight or if we’re in for another boring run of heavyweight title defenses like in the Klitschko era.
-- Tre
Honestly, I don’t see much. Luis Ortiz is seemingly aging decades between each fight and slowing down proportionately. At one time, I favored Ortiz over Wilder, but not anymore. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Wilder when they meet in March. Povetkin is the other player in the division, behind the top two. He probably won’t get a shot at anything until later in the year or the first half of 2019, but may find himself too small to beat either.
Beyond Ortiz and Povetkin, there’s nothing but “maybe, possibly.” Joseph Parker is a solid offensive fighter, but painfully pedestrian in every other area. If he’s not laid out by Joshua in March, he’ll be laid out by Joshua later on-- and may be laid out by any number of possible opponents if they get to him before Joshua does. The rest of the heavyweight class is made up of tired retreads, brawling no-hopers, and clumsy fringe contenders. Joshua has some potential bouts with countrymen that could be big business in the UK (Tyson Fury, the winner of Bellew-Haye 2, a rematch with Dillian Whyte), but nothing that could really light up the world). I can see the logic behind putting off Joshua-Wilder because, really, there’s not much else to excite the fans for either heavyweight champ.
Got a question (or hate mail) for Magno’s Bulging Mail Sack? The best of the best gets included in the weekly mailbag segment right here at FightHype. Send your stuff here: paulmagno@theboxingtribune.com.