As news/rumor/buzz spreads of promoter Sampson Lewkowicz offering Saul “Canelo” Alvarez a deal that would deliver as much as $50 million, guaranteed, to fight his client David Benavidez, we’re reminded of the tough spot in which the Mexican superstar finds himself.
On paper, in words, and in Eddie Hearn’s heart of hearts, Dmitry Bivol is next for Alvarez. But I’ve long stated my belief-- from the first moment that Alvarez said he wanted a Bivol rematch in May of 2022, with fans still buzzing at T-Mobile Arena and bruises still forming on his face-- that Alvarez wanted no second helping of the reigning WBA light heavyweight champ.
Alvarez is a smart enough boxing man to know just how decisive and borderline dominant that loss was. The three 115-113 scorecards told a different tale and Alvarez, when asked, rewrites history to make the bout seem closer, more competitive. But Bivol didn’t just barely beat Canelo, he outclassed him. By the end of that fight, Alvarez was tired, battered, and resigned to defeat. This was not a Canelo we had ever seen before, not even in his losing effort against Floyd Mayweather ten years earlier.
All the “It doesn’t end this way...we want the rematch” talk, at least in my eyes, was to save face. Bested the way he was, how could Alvarez NOT demand a return bout to make things right? He may be a new age kind of Mexican boxer, but he’s Mexican nonetheless and a proud Mexican doesn’t just whimper back home, tail between legs, after being slapped around for all the world to see.
However, the trilogy bout with Gennadiy Golovkin took priority over an immediate Bivol rematch. Then, Alvarez’s Guadalajara homecoming against John Ryder was pushed in front of Bivol part 2. Now, there’s a dispute over the weight for the next Bivol fight, tentatively planned for September.
Alvarez reportedly wants the fight at the 175 lb. limit like last time, while Bivol apparently prefers to fight at the 168 lb. limit to challenge for Alvarez’s four super middleweight belts. The WBC, though, says that it would refuse to sanction a Bivol-Alvarez super middleweight title fight because of their ban on Russian fighters.
Don’t be surprised if this weight stuff becomes a conveniently insurmountable obstacle, killing off Bivol-Alvarez 2 shortly before the time comes to start promoting Alvarez’s September fight.
Nobody will weep for the loss because the first fight wasn’t all that close and it’s hard to imagine Alvarez being able to do that much better in the rematch. At any rate, both have much more intriguing bouts on their horizons-- Bivol in a 175 lb. unification, against three-belt light heavyweight champ Artur Beterbiev and Canelo, with...David Benavidez?
And this is where Alvarez’s second dilemma comes into play.
The soon to be 33-year-old Canelo doesn’t really seem to want to fight the 26-year-old Benavidez, either. When asked about the all-offense Phoenix native, Alvarez has generally hemmed and hawed and kicked the proverbial can down the road.
The justification in not fighting Benavidez, as Alvarez set about becoming the unified super middleweight champ, was that the two-time former super middleweight titlist didn’t have any titles to put up. Fair enough. But now Alvarez is the four-belt champion and Benavidez has established himself as, by far, the top contender to Alvarez after destroying Caleb Plant in March. There is now legitimate reason to cast shade on Canelo if a Benavidez fight isn’t next.
The Mexican-American pressure fighter would be a supremely tough challenge for Alvarez, especially for the Alvarez we’ve seen lately, who has looked tepid, sluggish, and/or marginally interested in recent outings. Benavidez, whether his skills are overrated or not, will beat the doldrums out of any semi-motivated opponent, even one headed for the Hall of Fame.
It’s not a stretch to assume that Alvarez would prefer not to deal with a big, strong freight train at this point of his career. He’d also probably prefer not to deal with a slick stylist like Demetrius Andrade or a blue-chip 20-something stud like David Morrell, either.
And, if Bivol is no longer in the picture, that leave Canelo with, almost literally, nobody of note (and nobody deserving) to fight in a true Canelo-worthy event.
With Canelo’s big-money expectations, no network-- not even the brain trust at DAZN-- wants to hemorrhage money anymore just for the sake of having Alvarez fight on their airwaves. The man has to fight someone marketable enough to be a quality B-side in a bout competitive enough to stimulate sales.
And Alvarez, at least this Alvarez right now, who, rightfully or not, seems to feel that he’s earned some matchmaking deference, doesn’t seem to want to do anything but pick at low-hanging fruit.
After an amazing 2020-2021 run, the Mexican superstar appears to have grown old and jaded. The boxing business, meanwhile, continues to push him towards a passing of the torch challenge that he’s not yet ready to take.