Love him or hate him, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is quickly shedding the image of a novelty act and is becoming a decent fighter. Though his career has been guided masterfully with great matchmaking and excellent politicking, the latter which has earned him a title belt without facing its rightful owner, Chavez will have an opponent who is as live as they come and is probably the most dangerous threat he's faced to date, and that man is Marco Antonio Rubio.
Rubio has once before been at this stage of the game, taking a one-sided beatdown at the hands of Kelly Pavlik where after nine rounds of action, Rubio pulled the plug and opted to head back to the drawing board. Since then, he has won 13 straight and is coming off a career-best win against previously undefeated David Lemieux, he now faces off against another young star in what may be his last bid to become a champion. All the ingredients are here to produce the first great fight of 2012.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., WBC Middleweight Champion
Age: 25
Height: 6'1"
Record: 44-0-1 (31 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 4
Last Five Fights: 4-0 (1 KO); No Contest versus Troy Rowland 11-14-09
Marco Antonio Rubio
Age: 31
Height: 5'10"
Record: 53-5-1 (46 KO)
BoxRec Ranking: 9
Last Five Fights: 5-0 (5 KO)
Power: Chavez
Speed: Rubio
Technique: Rubio
X-Factor: Chavez's massive rehydration weight.
Chavez started his career as a come-ahead brawler, much like his father, but over the past two years, we have seen him beginning to incorporate more boxing into his fight game and it has benefited him as a fighter. With that being said, Chavez is a fighter first and has always depended on his guts more than his brain, and there is very little to believe that his strategy Saturday night will be to brawl it out with Rubio. The difference now is that Chavez can fall back on another game plan should things go south in a hurry. Against Pavlik and Lemieux, Rubio was rocked early and often coming in or going away. He is not going to be a hard target to find in the early rounds. Chavez is best suited to attack the body at this time to slow his challenger down.
Rubio found great success weathering the storm against Lemieux last April, but his strategy must not involve starting at a measured pace to preserve himself into the later rounds. Chavez's defense is as secure as a screen-door on a submarine. Rubio must punish Chavez as he comes inside. If Rubio can dictate the pace of the fight with his survival skills and experience, he could frustrate his younger foe into taking more shots than he needs to and make it his night.
What we should expect in the early rounds is Rubio playing matador to the young champion, trying to turn back his attempts to power on the inside and land his body shots while Chavez tries to subtly back his opponent to the ropes behind his improving jab to land his best punches. The middle rounds will pick up the pace as Chavez finds himself having to take some chances, which in turn will lead to some fierce exchanges but no clear front-runner as the fight is still evenly fought. Heading into the final rounds, both fighters will be extremely fatigued and it will be a matter of who can land whatever meaningful shots they have left, Chavez digging hard to the body with Rubio smothering him with combinations.
This is a very tough fight to pick being that while Rubio isn't a world-beater by any means, he's fought better fighters and stronger punches. I honestly can't say the same about Chavez. Rubio is a very live underdog here, but I just think there is too much working against him with the fight being in San Antonio. Plus with Chavez's money-making abilities, a decision isn't in the cards for him. His only chance of winning is by some form of stoppage. The pick here is Chavez by unpopular decision. While Chavez may escape San Antonio with his belt, it may not be the last he sees of Rubio this year.
In the co-feature between Jr. Featherweights Nonito Donaire and Wilfredo Vazquez Jr., Donaire will do just enough to win in a tougher-than-expected clash, leaving him to fight cannon-fodder opponents on undercards until his contract expires.
Danny Howard can be reached for comments or questions at dhoward@fighthype.com, Facebook, or follow him on Twitter (@DBHOWARD126). Also don't miss an episode of FightHype Radio, the baddest two hours of boxing on the planet, starting at 8pm EST.