It can be easy to confuse a big fight with a good fight. Star names, fan fervor, and all the talk leading up to fights can often serve to blind fans to the realities about big fights. This weekend, two future hall of famers will square off at New York City's Madison Square Garden. By the time the fight starts, the facts will be forgotten and it will be all about the fight. After the fight, as is the custom nowadays, the facts will be remembered again and used to discredit the winner by opposing fans. Before that process is set in motion once more, it's important that we see this fight for what it is and ask the question: what chance does Cotto really have?
THE WEIGHT
Most observers note that Miguel Cotto was at his best at 147 lbs. For a man of his size and frame, 147 lbs. seemed the ideal weight class. His record at 154 lbs. is mixed; wins against veteran sluggers Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito, both of whom were well past their best, and losses to Floyd Mayweather and Austin Trout are sandwiched by routine wins against overmatched opponents Yuri Foreman and Delvin Rodriguez. There isn't a great deal to prove that Cotto has/had what it takes to beat the best at 154 lbs., let alone 160 lbs. (or the 159 lbs. catchweight in place for this fight). It should shock us that Cotto has decided to wade into a fight with the lineal middleweight champion without taking an interim fight. We must remember that Martinez became the lineal middleweight champ the hard way, by beating 'the man' in the division at the time (Kelly Pavlik) and defending the title against all comers. Martinez is proven in the middleweight division, Cotto is not. You can bet that there would be uproar were it anyone else fighting for the RING & WBC middleweight titles without having earned the opportunity against tested middleweights.
The move up in weight seems an unnecessary attempt at making this a significant legacy fight. We know it's a good 'money fight' and that's the principal reason it's taking place. Cotto could just as easily be preparing to face off against Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez at 154 lbs., but he understandably took the higher monetary offer. The opportunity to become a middleweight champ (and the first Puerto Rican to be a champion in 4 weight classes) is almost incidental. Like Manny Pacquiao's eighth division world title and Sugar Ray Leonard's light heavyweight title, even if he does win the title at stake, there will always be an asterisk next to the accomplishment if he doesn't stay and compete in the division.
STYLES MAKE FIGHTS
Miguel Cotto has traditionally been at his best when he fights on the front foot. During his run at 140 and 147 lbs., he proved to be one of the most effective pressure fighters in the sport. His press quotes in the lead up to this fight paint the picture of a man whose game plan is to be aggressive against Sergio Martinez. The problem that Cotto has is the fact that Martinez is adept at facing pressure fighters. For almost all his fights in the middleweight division, Martinez has faced fighters that close the distance down and look to be aggressive against him. Martinez is 7-0 in those fights. My simple theory is, if Martinez can outbox a pressure fighter as big, dangerous, and aggressive as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., he is justified in being confident that he can deal with Miguel Cotto. If Cotto tries to box Martinez, then I doubt he'll have any more luck. Cotto is a fundamentally sound, fairly flat-footed, orthodox fighter. Martinez is a fleet-footed southpaw with an awkward style, speed, and power. Style-wise, it is clearly a much easier fight for Martinez than it is for Cotto.
Something else that will alarm those backing Cotto is his record against southpaws. At the top level, Miguel Cotto has faced three southpaws and is 1-2 against them. The impressive TKO win over Zab Judah in 2007 was followed by a crushing TKO defeat against Manny Pacquaio in 2010 and the sub par performance in defeat against Austin Trout. Tellingly, after the Trout fight, Cotto offered up no excuses, instead exposing his aversion for facing lefties by remarking, "He's a southpaw, so it was a difficult fight." Unless he has learned something new since fighting Austin Trout, then I expect that he will have some trouble early with the slick Martinez.
THE POSITIVES FOR COTTO
Cotto will be encouraged by Martin Murray's performance against Martinez. Murray applied little more than solid fundamentals to push Martinez to a close fight. It seemed on that night, as it did at times on the night that Martinez fought Matthew Macklin, that a decent defense, keeping one's gloves up, and jabbing well can negate a lot of what Sergio Martinez does well. Cotto is well capable of fighting in that style and possesses one of the best jabs in the sport.
Martinez's career can be thought of in three stages: pre-Cintron, prime, and post-Chavez. Pre-Cintron Martinez was virtually unknown. During his prime, he strung together several impressive wins to elevate himself into the higher reaches of the pound-for-pound list. Post-Chavez, Martinez has endured a nightmare. In the one outing in those 22 months, Martinez made a hard night's work of the challenge of Martin Murray and was perhaps fortunate to walk away with a unanimous decision victory. The inactivity and injuries can't be good for the 39-year-old's body. Cotto will believe that physically, at least, Sergio Martinez is past his prime. There also exists the possibility of a recurrence of one of Martinez's injuries. The news earlier this week that Martinez will not be allowed to wear the knee brace to protect his surgically repaired knee that he has been training in could be a telling factor.
The negotiated advantages. Much has been made of Cotto's demands in the lead up to the fight. At the negotiating table, Cotto demanded top billing and several 'petty' advantages. These demands have led Martinez to brand Cotto 'a diva.' Maybe the fact that Martinez was so upset to have those supposedly insignificant privileges tells us that they are more than just 'petty' advantages. Of what significance is this to the fight? Most revealingly, the negotiating tactics are objective evidence of Cotto's belief that he is the bigger starÂ…and possibly the greater fighter. Cotto expects himself to win. That level of confidence is a prerequisite of victory in a fight of this magnitude.
OVERALL
Sergio Martinez vs Miguel Cotto is an intriguing fight insofar as it matches two future hall of famers against each other. A win for either fighter will give them another great name to add to their already impressive resumes. The fight is also a great financial opportunity for two fighters who have given so much to the sport over the years. In a sense, it reminds me of the Mayweather vs Marquez fight; two great fighters, one coming off a significant period of inactivity, the other, smaller fighter great enough to pull off an upset win (in theory at least). I believe that like Mayweather was, Martinez is bigger and better, and if not for his recent health problems, would be a sure-fire favorite. The beauty of boxing, and this fight specifically, is that there are so many unknown factors (not least Martinez's health) that make it a hard fight to call. Whoever wins, it will be an interesting, hard-fought fight and the victor deserves full credit.