It's Monday. Welcome back for another edition of Observe and Fight, The Boxing Observer's compilation of observations and random thoughts from the week that was in boxing. Get caught up on some of the most recent events you may have missed out on, including a preview of this weekend's mega-fight, a look back at Adrien Broner's return to the ring, a review of the world championship action over the weekend, the stabbing of Kell Brook, and much more. Without further ado, check out the latest observations from the Boxing Observer, David Kassel.
Will Mayhem truly ensue this weekend, or will the Moment pass Marcos Maidana by? It's fight week and all eyes will once again be on Las Vegas, Nevada and the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Floyd Mayweather has made this venue his 2nd home and he will be making his 10th straight appearance in the mecca of boxing. Maidana has stayed humble throughout this entire promotion and nothing seems to faze this guy. Will it be enough though? Check out my email of the week at the bottom of the column for my prediction on this fight.
A lot of storylines could distract Floyd Mayweather, but history shows nothing may stop him once he steps into the ring. Between his beefs with 50 Cent, and Nelly, and his ex-fiance, Shantel Jackson, suing Mayweather, alleging assault and battery, defamation, conversion, privacy invasion, and more, other than the Miguel Cotto fight, when Floyd was facing an impending prison stint, this may be the largest number of distractions Mayweather has ever faced. However, short of Maidana being escorted to the ring with Miss Jackson on his arm, while 50 Cent and Nelly serenade the crowd during Maidana's ring walk, I don't see much bothering Mayweather come fight night. Mayweather thrives in chaos; although, it would be rather comical to see Maidana come to the ring with that entourage.
How many pay-per-view buys will Mayhem produce? While watching episode 2 of All Access on Saturday night, my wife made the following comment: "At least Showtime does a really good job of making it seem like the fight will actually be competitive." Her words struck me because the first fight in May, which featured Amir Khan and Adrien Broner, allegedly only produced 850,000-900,000 pay-per-view buys. This pay-per-view event doesn't have nearly the star power as that one, and the card itself is nothing to get excited about (believe me, I've tried). I will be the first to admit it, I am not going to purchase this pay-per-view. I will spend either $25 to go watch it in a movie theater (which is a wonderful experience if you haven't had the chance yet) or I will go to a place like Dave and Busters and spend the $15 cover charge to watch the fight. Leo Santa Cruz is entertaining, but he should win easily, and this fight should not be the co-feature. Miguel Vazquez is not fun to watch, so his fight with Mickey Bey won't be all that interesting. Alfredo Angulo is entertaining, but his middleweight debut is nothing to write home about. The best fight on the card may be the free preview fight on Showtime between John Molina and Humberto Soto. Don't be surprised at all if this fight doesn't exceed 800,000 pay-per-view buys. That number will still net a big profit, but it's not what Mayweather is used to.
By the way, did anyone find it odd that Mayweather's entourage had no problem smoking marijuana on camera? Considering this took place in Las Vegas (last time I checked, Nevada does not have legalized marijuana laws), I'm surprised Mayweather had no issue with this. Granted, there is no proof he was partaking in the action (he doesn't drink or smoke), but for someone with a criminal record, you would think Mayweather would be more careful.
Adrien Broner gained a TON from his win over Emmanuel Taylor on Saturday night. Anyone who thought Taylor was going to be a pushover doesn't follow boxing. I stated last week that Broner would be in tough. He certainly was. Broner took Taylor's best shots well, but Taylor is not a power puncher. Broner isn't exactly a world-beating puncher either though. Broner lands at an unbelievable power connect percentage, yet his power isn't carrying as much weight above lightweight (even though he did knock Taylor down in the 12th round). Broner needed this type of fight to regain some confidence in the ring, because he is going to need it going forward. He wants Lucas Matthysse. I don't think that's the best idea.
Broner needs to stay away from Matthysse because Broner isn't active enough. I don't think Broner can hurt Matthysse the way John Molina or Danny Garcia did. Broner isn't as strong a puncher. Broner can certainly take a punch, as he proved against Maidana, but he doesn't recover well. I commend Broner's willingness to want to face Matthysse, but Broner doesn't let his hands go for a full 3 minutes of every round. He cannot afford to take breaks during rounds, as he often does, against a non-stop, pressure fighter like Matthysse. When Broner keeps the fight in the middle of the ring and lets his hands go, it's a thing of beauty to watch. Unless Broner picks up his work rate, he needs to stay away from Matthysse. In my opinion, Broner would be better off in the ring against Danny Garcia.
I'm glad to hear everything seems to be okay with Kell Brook. Brook is in stable condition after being stabbed in the leg during an attack while on vacation off the coast of Morocco. Brook will no longer make his planned return on December 6th, but the important thing is that Brook is okay and can make a full and speedy recovery.
Referee Benjy Esteves Jr. was put in a tough spot by Roberto Ortiz. Matthysse's body shot was debilitating, and yes, it was only the 2nd round, but Ortiz didn't start to get off his knees until after 9 and was still standing up when Esteves counted to ten (and he did say ten in Spanish if you listen closely). He probably should have given Ortiz an opportunity to show he could continue, but smart fighters would stand up at 8 just to be safe. If Ortiz could have continued, which I believe he could have, he shouldn't have chanced it. Beginning to stand up at 9 1/2 is no different to me than a fighter who is giving the referee his gloves to prove he can stand on his own two feet without wobbling. Esteves probably should have given Ortiz the benefit of the doubt, but people shouldn't be so hard on the referee when the fighter was just as much at fault.
Congratulations to Carl Frampton for winning the IBF super bantamweight title! Frampton, in front of 16,000 hometown fans in Belfast, Northern Ireland, boxed beautifully against the rugged Kiko Martinez (a man whom he had already defeated once before), to win his first world title. Frampton said he wants Scott Quigg next (as long as Quigg gets past his title defense Saturday), and he can certainly draw a crowd if in the correct venue, but there are much bigger names out there. Chris Avalos is the #1 contender, but hopefully the IBF allows a voluntary defense. Quigg would draw a big crowd. Guillermo Rigondeaux is looking for an opponent, but is considering moving up in weight because of the lack of big fights at 122lbs. Abner Mares says he would come back down to super bantamweight to face Frampton. That could produce a huge payday for the young man from Belfast. Then, there is Leo Santa Cruz. Frampton wants that fight, and if Santa Cruz can get past his title defense Saturday, I don't see any reason why that fight cannot be made in the United States or Europe.
Another congratulations to the best fighter you may never have heard of, Roman Gonzalez! On Friday, Gonzalez traveled to Japan, in the backyard of WBC flyweight champion Akira Yaegashi, and completely dominated what was supposed to be a competitive affair en route to a 9th-round TKO victory. Gonzalez, only 27-years-old, is now 40-0 with 34 KO's. He is ranked in the Top 10 pound-for-pound in most writers' rankings because he is now a 3-division world champion. Gonzalez is a beast. I would love to see him fight on HBO or Showtime sometime soon.
More congratulations goes out to Juan Francisco Estrada for successfully defending his WBA/WBO flyweight belts. Estrada pounded out an 11th-round TKO win over fellow Mexican countryman Giovani Segura, Saturday. Estrada is a very entertaining fighter, and he has another man in the mix at flyweight willing to get in the ring with anyone. How about a Gonzalez vs. Estrada flyweight title unification to determine 112lb. supremacy? That would be a fight worthy of a co-feature on a pay-per-view! I would pay money just to watch that one fight.
One final champion successfully defended his belt. WBC junior flyweight champion Naoya Inoue successfully TKO'd Samartlek Kokietgym in the co-feature to Gonzalez's win over Yaegashi. While the win wasn't surprising, what's most impressive is that Inoue is now just 7 fights into his pro career and is already rated the #1 junior flyweight in the world (now that Gonzalez moved up to flyweight). He was a well-known amateur in Asia, finishing with a 75-6 record, but never won any major world amateur titles before turning pro in 2012. It's impressive to see that the 21-year-old has already defeated the likes of Adrian Hernandez in such a short time. You should keep an eye on him in the future.
Other former champions made successful returns to the ring Saturday. Andre Berto looked very good in his comeback fight and it was just what he needed to get his confidence back on track. He easily outpointed Steven Upsher Chambers and gained a valuable 10 rounds in the process after 13 months on the shelf due to injury. Also, Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz successfully defeated Carlos Cardenas by unanimous decision. It wasn't Diaz's best showing since coming back from his short-lived retirement, but it was good to see him bank some rounds.
It looks as if we're one step closer to an all-Brooklyn showdown between Peter Quillin and Daniel Jacobs. Quillin shocked everyone this week by vacating his WBO middleweight crown and passing up a $1.4 million payday to fight Matt Korobov in November. This move is a clear sign that Quillin has been told he will make more money than that fighting Jacobs.
I am very excited for Thursday night's Fox Sports 1 fight card! The main event features heavyweights Luis Ortiz and Lateef "Power" Kayode in what should be an entertaining scrap. The co-feature has Juan Manuel Lopez taking on Jesus Cuellar. Other fighters scheduled to appear on the card (although I'm not sure if their fights will be televised) include: Josesito Lopez, Jermall Charlo, Julian Williams, Olusegun Ajose, Errol Spence, and Prichard Colon. Should be a great night of action as an appetizer to Saturday night!
Each week, I feature an email from a fan on Observe and Fight. This week's email comes to us from Mitch regarding my prediction on Mayweather vs. Maidana this weekend and the improper use of the comma in the English language...
"David you left us hanging again (last week). You changed your thoughts (and I agree with you) about "Mayhem" being fought in similar fashion to "The Moment." I got so excited to read this and then you went to the next subject. My question is the why? Why do you feel that way now? I'm extremely interested in your thoughts- mainly because the media seems to be locked into a consensus that Floyd will win much easier this time around. I'm more of the thinking that it'll be tough the second go-round. I mean for example, a question I'd ask if I did a prediction would be "could Maidana be Floyd's Tarver?"... comparing this matchup to the situation where some thought Tarver beat Jones in their first encounter. Anyway, I'd love to hear why you are thinking the opposite way of most media. Mine reasons have to do with legs, age, style matchup, and a few other things. Please let me know why you feel Mayhem could play out like you envision.
The other thing I wanted to discuss is the use of commas. This may not mean anything to you, but I am a huge fan of the extra comma that 95% of the world doesn't use. You used it and it made your thoughts much easier for me to read. The argument is that the comma is used in place of the word "and". So if you say one thing, another thing, another thing"," and another thing then the third comma isn't needed. Meaning the one before the word "and" because it's like saying "and-and". I don't agree. I'll use a sample below from an awards show: I'd like to thank my parents, Meryl Streep and God. By only using one comma, the sentence reads like the award-winner is saying his parents are Meryl Streep and God. The way it should read (IMO) is: I'd like to thank my parents, Meryl Streep, and God. In this example it separates the two parents from Meryl and separates Meryl from God. It also separates God from the two parents. Good work with the comma use! -Mitch"
Haha. I like to leave a bit of intrigue as we approach fight time. Honestly, I look at the demeanor of a person and that sometimes says a lot. I still think Floyd will win, but I just think Maidana has stayed true to himself, which is rare for many athletes who experience success. With that being said, the more I think about it, Floyd Mayweather will make this fight as easy as he wants. In the first fight, Mayweather stayed on the ropes more than we had seen since the Miguel Cotto fight. To be honest, some are saying that Mayweather's legs are gone. That is one of the most asinine things I have ever heard. Yes, Mayweather's legs aren't what they used to be. He isn't the same fighter who fought Diego Corrales, but he was also 3 weight classes lighter. Mayweather's skills have evolved. His speed has diminished a bit from back then, yet his reflexes have somehow strengthened. Mayweather can no longer bully guys around the ring. Rarely is he the bigger man in a fight. Don't expect a knockout from Floyd.
If Mayweather wants to keep this fight interesting, he will fight the same fight as the first time and will probably win 8 rounds to 4. If Mayweather decides to keep the fight in the center of the ring (which he is capable of doing at will against Maidana), it may not be the most fan-friendly fight, but he could shut Maidana out. Maidana is a world-class fighter, but so was Robert Guerrero, Canelo Alvarez, and many others who have come before. Devon Alexander was able to box, and dominate Maidana. Amir Khan experienced tremendous success against Maidana when he boxed and tried not to get into a firefight. Andriy Kotelnik defeated Maidana by boxing. Maidana can be defeated if his opponent boxes and doesn't get sucked into a brawl. Robert Garcia has helped Maidana improve tremendously, but you cannot teach reflexes, speed, and skills. Mayweather is still on another level and Maidana's demeanor in Episode 2 of All Access seemed to be one of a man who knows he has to fight the perfect fight to win. I don't believe he can do that. Maidana must win by knockout or he doesn't win at all. I believe Mayweather will win a unanimous decision, 118-109.
I'm laughing SO DAMN HARD at the comma comments. I feel, as a writer, I am doing myself, and all the readers out there, an injustice if I cannot properly use the the English language.
That's all I've got for this week. Email any questions or comments to dkassel@fighthype.com and I will answer them throughout the week. Your email may be featured in the next "Observe and Fight." Follow me on Twitter @BoxingObserver, and be sure to "Like" The Boxing Observer on Facebook.
[ Follow David Kassel on Twitter @BoxingObserver ]