IBF welterweight champ Errol Spence Jr. is one of the most exciting fighters on the planet, but that doesn’t matter a damn bit. Even alongside the talent currently crammed into the upper tier of the welterweight division, Spence is on the road to nowhere. And unless his team works to clear a path for him to build his star, he’s more likely to be a “could’ve been” fighter than a HOF legend.
So, why am I saying this when most other writers and fans are singing his praises as the next big thing?
Well, his predicament certainly doesn’t have anything to do with his ability or willingness to fight. But just take a look at the landscape laid out before him and you’ll see the sad reality of a guy who’s about to be tied up in a long run of boxing black hole.
His bout this Saturday against Lamont Peterson is alright for a “stay busy” fight. But Peterson, as tough and as earnest as he is, has never beaten a top welterweight (although some had him edging a lackluster Danny Garcia above the junior welterweight limit a couple years back). Any way you slice it, Spence-Peterson is a letdown after Spence-Kell Brook and it falls into the category of a fight that was made just for the sake of convenience.
After the Peterson fight, you better not be expecting Spence to be doing much more than spinning his wheels.
Keith Thurman has flat-out said that he has no intention of fighting Spence anytime soon. Shawn Porter, as Thurman’s WBC mandatory challenger, will be waiting on Thurman to get back into fighting shape for another shot at beating him. Danny Garcia, should he get by Brandon Rios in February, will become the WBC’s #2 mandatory and will be waiting on the eventual winner of Thurman-Porter 2.
Across the aisle in the Top Rank camp, Spence would be downright delusional to think that he’s going to get within sniffing distance of Arum’s three welters of note-- Terence Crawford, Manny Pacquiao, and Jeff Horn.
And while Spence is being cockblocked by the 147 lb. elites and fellow titlists, he will be bogged down by the IBF’s garbage rankings and BS mandatories. The US-based sanctioning body already has plans in place for Spence’s “must make” defenses-- and those plans have him obligated to face the winner of the previously postponed Konstantin Ponomarev-Carlos Ocampo eliminator and then, after another voluntary defense, the winner of the Ray Robinson-Yordenis Ugas eliminator for the IBF #2 slot. None of the four fighters headed for eliminators will further Spence’s career in the least.
Looking at this reasonably, Spence won’t be in the ring with someone who truly matters until, at the earliest, the summer or fall of 2019. And, even then, there’s no guarantee that the fights he wants will be made available to him if his potential opponents have other options. That’s not good news at all for a 28-year-old fighter in his physical prime and already feeling the drag of not having much to do.
Sure, there are other welterweights out there, beyond the top dogs and alphabet mandatories, but is fighting the Devon Alexanders and Andre Bertos of the division going to do much for Spence?
Of course, a lot can change from day to day in boxing and maybe, at some point, big fight possibilities open up for Spence and the road will be cleared for him to carve out his professional legacy.
Here’s hoping that Spence gets his chance to prove himself against the very best the division has to offer. It’s just a shame that so much in boxing comes down to crossing your fingers and hoping for the best.
Quick (S)hits:
-- Anthony Joshua vs. Joseph Parker is official for March 31. Expect Joshua to lay out the very basic Parker within six.
-- Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 2 for May 5, is NOT official-- although Golden Boy made sure to inform the boxing world that Alvarez is pleased with the deal his team would like to push forward. Duh.
--The fear all along with Top Rank’s ESPN deal was that Bob Arum would soon turn the program into a dumping ground for mismatches, showcases, and fights that can’t readily be sold to other networks (as has usually been the case with Arum and non-premium TV deals). The upcoming schedule doesn’t give me too much hope. So far, the Top Rank on ESPN cards programmed for the first part of 2018 are not exactly the top notch, high-end bouts promised when the deal was first made. (Feb 3: Gilberto Ramirez vs. Habib Ahmed, February 16 Raymundo Beltran vs. Paulus Moses, March 17: Jose Ramirez vs. Amir Imam). I mean, theses fights are alright-- and definitely better than nothing-- but not at all special and more along the lines of fights that would make for halfway decent televised undercard bouts. Terence Crawford vs. Jeff Horn may happen in April, so there’s a chance that things may pick up for the remainder of the year.
Got something you’d like to share with me? Here’s my email: paulmagno@theboxingtribune.com