Every Thursday here at Fight Hype, I pull out my gigantic, bulbous, bulging sack and give truth-minded boxing fans a gander. This week, I shoot ropes of truth all over comments/questions regarding Spence-Ugas, Spence-Crawford, PBC’s junior middleweights, and this weekend’s fights.
Spence-Ugas, an Early Look
Hello Paul,
Although I only agree with you 65% of the time, I still read and enjoy all of your articles (HAHA). Anyhow, I’d like to share my analysis on Errol Spence Jr. vs Yordenis Ugas, Porter and hopefully Crawford. Please share your thoughts, I really look forward to hearing from you.
I think Spence will win by unanimous decision against Ugas and here’s what my prediction is based on. Spence has a solid history of performing well against highly skilled boxers including Kell Brook, Mickey Garcia, Danny Garcia, and even rumors of sparring sessions with Floyd Mayweather Jr. Unfortunately, Spence increased his number of doubters because he didn’t look spectacular against Shawn Porter.
Let’s think about that for a moment...Shawn Porter is more of a brawler than boxer and Spence admitted that he made the fight more difficult because he fought Porter’s fight. Beyond that, consider that all of Shawn Porter’s struggles and losses came from highly skilled boxers such as Brook, Ugas, and Crawford. So, to use Spence vs Porter as a measuring stick on how well Spence will perform against Ugas and potentially Crawford is very misleading.
The old saying is that styles make fights and Errol Spence has consistently proved that he can outbox and even stop the most highly skilled boxers in the 147 division. Please share your thoughts on my analysis. Thanks,
--Kent
Hey Kent.
I can’t disagree too much with your assessment.
It’s the jab. Spence’s jab is an absolute bitch for an orthodox, classically-skilled fighter. That’s why (including some other contributing factors) he has such success with “boxers.”
Ugas is equipped with a few assets that could give Spence some problems, though. He’s a highly adaptive fighter with an unflappable demeanor who is on an extreme confidence-enforcing run that culminated with his recent victory over Manny Pacquiao. He’s also got a pretty good jab of his own, something which could present Spence with a “jab parity” dynamic he’s never faced before. Ugas’ wide right could also be a real factor against the southpaw Spence, just as it was a big factor against the southpaw Pacquiao.
This is definitely no walk in the park for Spence.
But, you’re right. You can’t use Spence-Porter to assess Spence-Ugas. I will say, though, that I noticed some flat spots at various points in his post-car wreck bout with Danny Garcia, not relative to the style of his opponent, that could either be attributed to a general decline or to downtime following serious injury. Well, guess what? He’s coming off more downtime after a serious injury and he may come into this bout a bit flat as well.
I wouldn’t bet against Spence winning by unanimous decision, but I probably wouldn’t wager a lot ON it, either. Three years ago, Spence-Ugas would’ve been a no-brainer. Right now, at least in my estimation, it’s dangerously close to being a pick ‘em.
Thanks for reading, by the way.
Spence-Crawford...Now?
I can feel it in my bones, Magno. I’ve seen rumors online about Crawford signing a multi-fight contract with PBC. I’ve seen Spence talking about a Crawford fight after Ugas. I’ve seen Crawford talking about Spence again. I think it’s going to happen. Errol Spence vs. Terence Crawford. What do you think? What kind of chance is there that we get the big one after the less big one on April 16? And who do you think wins if it does happen? Still riding with Bud?
– Damon
Hey Damon.
First things first, Spence has to beat Ugas and, as I wrote in the response above, I don’t think it’s necessarily a given that he does that. Crawford, meanwhile, would likely take a stay-busy fight and have to win THAT one. So, there’s a lot that still needs to happen if the Crawford-to-PBC rumors are true and the “big one” is brewing.
But Bud going to PBC, even for a short run, is the only logical step he can take. As a full free agent now, he doesn’t have that ESPN safety net money and friendly matchmaking anymore. There’s nowhere else to go but PBC. Hopefully, it happens because that’s really where he’s going to find legacy fights. I truly believe the guy is a “Sugar Ray of our era” talent and he deserves the opportunity to prove it.
I have a feeling we may hear a Crawford/PBC announcement sometime between now and Spence-Ugas fight night.
IF Spence-Crawford does happen, I’m still picking Crawford. I think his versatility and aggressive mindset will be the deciding factors.
PBC’s Junior Middleweight
Hi Paul.
PBC takes a lot of guff and I’ll admit I used to shovel it on them, too, but I’m seeing a lot of good coming from them of late and it seems that a lot of your pals in the media are not too quick in giving them credit. Case in point is in the junior middleweight division. PBC owns most (if not all) of the big names over the last few years and has set about making best vs. best fights all the time. Everyone’s fought everyone and now we’re set for a full unification in May with Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano. This Saturday’s Lubin vs. Fundora is a good example of matching two highly-regarded young contenders against one another in a risky fight for both when they easily could’ve maneuvered their guys to easier fights for paper titles elsewhere. They’ve also done a good job matching their best vs. their other best in other divisions where they have a quantity of talent like at 147 and 122. Sure, they prefer in-house fights and there are times when they’re protecting their guys, but that’s standard MO in the boxing business. Overall, though, they’ve been putting their fighters in riskier fights than any other boxing company. And this is from a one-time PBC hater. If you’re going to call out the bad, you have to recognize the good, too.
– John from St. Louis
Hey John.
I’ll preface my reply with a full disclosure that I do freelance fight previews for PBC, including the preview for this Saturday’s Erickson Lubin-Sebastion Fundora bout. But I think any truly objective, informed observer would acknowledge the outstanding run PBC has engineered in the junior middleweight division. Everyone HAS pretty much fought everyone and we’re getting to a fully unified, undisputed world champ honestly, the old school way, after a long playoff-type process. They’ve also done about as well as can be expected in unifying the welterweight division and, as you pointed out, in other divisions where they have enough talent to run the board as well. They could do better at reaching out for cross-network, cross-platform bouts, but that could be said of everyone. Also, the PBC folks do tend to match their young fighters/young prospects tougher than other companies, even if the tough matchmaking only happen if it’s “in house” PBC vs. PBC. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see too many Top Rank/Golden Boy/Matchroom/etc. top prospects matched against one another before they reach their full prime and/or before making a few money scores first.
I think Al Haymon and PBC ruffled some feathers when they first came into the business and threatened the status quo of the sport. Many in the media, who are lapdogs for the establishment, immediately took aim at them. But, now that some of these guys are either out of the boxing media business or greatly diminished in their reach and power, the constant anti-PBC barrages and “they’re going out of business” rants are gone and reality has been allowed to take root.
As a related side note, the lack of respect Jermell Charlo gets despite being a 3-belt champ, one win away from being a fully unified 4-belt champ, is practically criminal. IMO, a lot of that is a holdover from that same anti-PBC media bias mentioned above.
This Weekend’s Fights
Hi Paul
Writing few questions for this week, lets start:
1. Fundora vs Lubin- Am I crazy to think that this is the most exciting fight from this weekend? They are both aggressive and pack a punch. Sadly, the more I think about this the more I think it will end bad for Fundora, to withstand punchers as heavy as Lubin you need a good foundation and Fundora is a tall lanky guy who might just receive so many power punches his way.
2. I cant speak about Ryan's fight because it will not tell us anything other than there is potential for the Tank fight.
3. As for GGG and Murata, I would tell you that based on age and the new style Golovkin has adapted I would say there is possibility of the upset, but Murata just knows one way to fight and that includes no defense. Golovkin's jab will open the way to something heavy to knock Murata out. The old GGG might achieve this prior to RD3, this version might take 9 rounds to complete it.
Best Regards, Paul.
-- Miguel
Hey Miguel.
I’ll tackle these in order:
1. You’re not crazy at all. It SHOULD be the fight of the weekend. Fundora is probably just going to be one of those crash and burn guys. He’s been spotless in dragging opposition into his fight, but even though he prefers the inside game, that doesn’t mean that he’s always necessarily going to win all those inside wars. His defense is so spotty and he presents such a big target inside that someone, eventually, will clip him hard enough to hurt him and take him out. Lubin may be that guy. He’s certainly the “right” kind of fighter to take him out-- technically sound, heavy-handed, and calm-headed. But Fundora ain’t going down without a fight and we’ve yet to see him really dig deep in a 50-50 war. We’ll see. Either way, it’s going to be good.
2. Just seeing Garcia make it to the opening bell will be a plus for his reputation. Other than that, yeah, this is just a stay-busy comeback fight. Still, the kid is fun to watch. So, it’s definitely worth a gander.
3. I think Golovkin’s “new” style is really just a product of a guy who’s become jaded and cynical when it comes to how much he has to put into his efforts. Because of that change in mindset, he’s vulnerable. But Murata doesn’t offer much of a risk. Even if Triple G came into the ring lackadaisical with a truck driver’s gut, wearing bunny slippers instead of ring shoes and checking Facebook between rounds, he’d still swallow Murata whole.
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