Don't miss all the action this Saturday when pound-for-pound and WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao puts his title on the line against former champion Joshua Clottey this Saturday, March 13th, at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas and televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you do not want to miss "The Event"!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
2010 took a while to get going, but here we are and things are about to really get rolling. Last time we spoke, Manny Pacquiao was getting ready to take apart Miguel Cotto and net me the new title of "The Boxing Bookie", courtesy of former title holder John Chavez over at theboxingtruth.com. John was convinced Miguel Cotto had the right skill set to derail the Pacquiao ExpressÂ…so sure of this, he put his title as "The Boxing Bookie" on the line. It wasn't to be for Cotto or Chavez. I know you're reading, John, and I know you want to reclaim your title. You are deserving of this title, my friend, so by all means, you can have it backÂ…and I don't mean that in a Riddick Bowe trash can sort of way. I will just keep the crown.
Aside from this being the event that gets 2010 rolling, what does this fight really mean? To most, this is a semi-final as we await the other semi-final winner on May 1st. To others, this is a runner-up to Mayweather-Mosley. To me, this has all worked out well for fight fans in the end, because instead of one great fight, we may get threeÂ…and I stress the word "may".
Should Pacquiao do his job this Saturday, there really is only one place for him to go and that is straight to the Mayweather-Mosley winner. No one wants to see him in there with anyone else at this point, so blood test be damned, find a way to get it done and make the biggest fight in the sport a reality. There is a problem though. Mayweather isn't bending and neither is Pacquiao, so unless Shane Mosley wins, we may very well not see the finals – and that would truly be tragic for the fight fans and for the sport. While money does have a way of changing anyone's mind, we have already seen Pacquiao willing to walk away from De La Hoya and Hatton fights because he was unhappy with the terms. Don't think this is any different. So what then? Your guess is as good as mine, but I am going to go with Antonio Margarito. Arum is bringing him back and whatever fight fans may feel, there is going to be a market to see him. Should he get licensed in California again, it is just a matter of time before he is back on your television. The fight pales in comparison to a potential Mayweather clash, but it would sell, and if it's one thing we know about Arum, he is going to do what he wants to do. What if Pacquiao were to lose? Well, the likelihood would have to be a Clottey rematch, but if for some reason the public demand made a Clottey versus the winner of the May 1st battle a reality, it brings us right back to where we were with Margarito, or perhaps potentially even a third fight against Juan Manuel Marquez.
From the Clottey side of things, the view is a little different. What if he put it all together, used his physical advantages and was able to offset Pacquiao's speed and rhythm and come out with a win? Simple logic says rematch, which Clottey would be paid handsomely for, but there is no rematch clause in place and it is possible he would want to use this fight as a chance to move on to something he would view as more career defining, like the Mayweather-Mosley winner. In the end though, there are only two places for him to go if he does beat Pacquiao, and each one is huge. If he loses, there is probably not a whole lot out there for him. Maybe Arum tries to make something out of the fact that he was just in a big event against Pacquiao and uses him as an opponent for Margarito. Clottey would probably welcome the rematch and as I mentioned before, Top Rank will find a way to resuscitate the Tijuana native's career. Perhaps a move to 154 and a crack at one of the belts there, maybe even a fight against the Foreman–Cotto winner. No matter what, the options will be somewhat limited, but you know Arum will look to position him for something.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
So the new Cowboys Stadium is buzzing, 45,000 people are cheering and "The Event" is in full swing. The first thing to note is that this fight will be more difficult than the Miguel Cotto fight, no matter how you slice it. Boxing math rarely works, and regardless of the fact that Cotto recently won a decision against Clottey, the Grand Master will prove to be a more difficult opponent for Pacquiao. He is more athletic, bigger, stronger, more durable, and his defense is significantly better.
The real question here is what approach will Joshua Clottey have?
If it's one thing we have learned, it's that the worst way to fight Manny Pacquiao is by walking him down behind a jab and trying to close distance. Pacquiao is smart and he may have the best legs we have seen in the sport in years, perhaps decades, so if you try to walk him down, he will get back quicker than you can move forward, dart back in to land big shots, and be gone again before you can get much done. Why fighters continue to do this is beyond me, but they do; I can only assume it is because they think they still have a featherweight in front of them. Will Clottey be another one of those fighters who thinks they can impose their size and strength on Pacman?
The thing that does seem to trouble, or confuse Pac a little at times is patience. Fighters that sit back and, no matter what, will not give in to the temptation of getting sucked into an up tempo fight, can have some success slowing things down in there. Chances are good that Pacquiao will probably still win rounds on activity, but the fighter won't get busted up and he can potentially offset a little of what Pacman is doing if they are a very sharp counterpuncher who is willing to take a chance and fire when Pac darts in. This can score points, slow Pacquiao down and, in turn, win their own rounds. Will Clottey be able to balance remaining patient, focusing on defense, and mounting enough offense to let Pacquiao know that he is bigger, stronger and has a plan?
Unfortunately for Clottey, I think he is going to be aggressive, when he should be looking to slow the fight down, and he is going to be passive when he should be looking at ways to score some points and let Pacquiao know he is still in a fight.
Clottey has said that he is going to bring the fight to Pacquiao and I believe him. The good news is that this should make for some very entertaining rounds and those who are watching will get their money's worth. The first 4 or 5 rounds in particular should prove to have their fair share of back and forth action, consistent offense, clean punching, and maybe even a little rule bending. From the opening bell, look for the Grand Master to come forward behind a very high guard and a jab. Pacquiao will do as he always does and look to create his offense behind incredibly fast feet and free-flowing combos. In particular, Pacquiao will look to get to Clottey's body, and while he tends to get wider with those shots than upstairs, he is too fast to really do much about it. Clottey will respond though and that straight right will find a home at times. When it does, expect it to make an impression, just as Marquez was able to do when landing that right.
After 4 or 5 rounds of good, competitive action, look for Pacquiao to begin splitting Clottey's guard with a bit more frequency. The challenger can be hit to the body and, at times, straight up the middle. Pac's work downstairs will make the target upstairs between those gloves a little wider as the middle rounds approach. This will cause Clottey to grow far more defensive, when he should be looking to counter. From there, the Filipino icon will begin banking rounds with more consistency.
As we approach the championship rounds and the toll of making weight slows Clottey, as does feeding that build with oxygen, the challenger will find himself in that same passive mindset we have seen so often. All too willing to sit back, looking to guard against big shots, and just killing the clock while his opponents remain active, Clottey will be giving away rounds that he otherwise should be trying to find a way to win. The real question to be answered will be whether or not Pacquiao can be the first guy to truly hurt or even stop Clottey.
THE CALL...
Make no mistake, I expect this to be a very good fight. Stylistically, Clottey could be a real headache for Pacquiao. The only problem is that he will tend to be more willing to engage, when he should be looking to lull Pacman into a slower fight, and he will grow far more passive, when he should be looking to counter and score points.
It will be interesting to see how Pacquiao handles a big, strong welterweight who is athletic, rugged, can get dirty, and has never been hurt before. If he steamrolls Clottey, I will be very surprised.
After a very exciting first third of the fight, look for a combination of Pacquiao's workrate and Clottey's tendency to grow passive when his opponent will not go away to take over. My initial expectation was a 116 – 112 type of unanimous decision for Manny Pacquiao. I was figuring that Clottey would win a couple rounds early, and another round or two in the middle or late as Pacquiao took a break, but the more I think about it, and the more I envision Clottey trying to bring the fight to Pacquiao from the get go, the more I am starting to see a stoppage. No, not a brutal, laid-out, sort of stoppage…more of an accumulation on the ropes type of stoppage as the ref jumps in. Would a decision surprise me? Of course not, but the official call here is Pacquiao TKO 11 in a very good fight that only gets the public more excited about what could be if Mayweather does his job on May 1st.
As for pay-per-view buysÂ…give me 900,000.
Enjoy!