Thanksgiving weekend indeed! Boxing has given us a schedule to give thanks for of late
the year will be salvaged with a stacked November and a few more interesting fights in December. While I would love to give a breakdown on all of these fights, things are quite hectic with the holiday weekend so give a guy a break. Even the fights that may seem to have a heavy favorite on paper should provide some entertainment. So let's get right to it.
THE FIGHT: CARL FROCH VS. ARTHUR ABRAHAM
Going into the Super Six tournament, this was the one I circled. How could you not be interested in this fight? It's two punchers who are happy to exchange and like to make the other guy work a full 3 minutes each round.
There is a slight chance that their styles may also lead to some holding and wrestling on the inside, which could seriously hurt the flow, but I still see some serious drama and entertainment here. Abraham has vowed to start earlier after ceding all the early rounds to Andre Dirrell in his last fight, and Carl Froch has guaranteed to get rid of King Arthur to avoid the judges getting involved. Well, they are both saying the right things.
Carl Froch is underrated defensively and his sense of distance, combined with his old school style and ability to move with shots and get out of the way so they just miss or glance, allows him to constantly return fire. Abraham does not have the type of jab to bother The Cobra, but he does have a powerful arsenal of short punches to catch Froch when he leans in front of him.
I expect Froch to get buzzed early, but use his length to start banking middle rounds as he stays out of harm's way. Both men will be hurt at some point, but a late Abraham rally won't be enough as Froch wins a close decision in the area of 115113.
THE FIGHT: ANDRE WARD VS. SAKIO BIKA
It is almost impossible to look good against Sakio Bika, and I don't expect this Saturday to be any different. Andre Ward is happy to mix his supreme skill set in with some ugly inside mauling and holding to offset anything his opponent looks to do in return. Sakio Bika is content to go with a straight mauling and holding strategy as he looks to stay in the fight by any means necessary.
Expect Andre Ward to soon learn that his best bet is to stick with his speed and skills, but don't expect him to completely forego the holding and mugging tactics that work well for him.
A Ward cut would not surprise me, and maybe a tense moment that is the result of some rough-housing, but make no mistake, Bika is just not going to have enough to come out with a win here. Ward won't look good doing it, and he probably won't impress too many people, but a win is a win. Expect a clear and wide decision. 118110
119111 is the call as SOG keeps his 0 intact.
THE FIGHT: CELESITNO CABALLERO VS. JASON LITZAU
Man
what does Caballero have to do to get a meaningful fight? Coming off his messy and controversial win over Rocky Juarez, Litzau was in line for something; that something turned out to be a tune-up for often avoided Junior Featherweight Celestino Caballero. A move 4 pounds north for the Panama native, a spot on an HBO card, and an opponent willing to fight is all he needed to say yes.
For Litzau's sake, he should be happy to see this fight at 130 because I am not sure how much more punishment he should be taking. Caballero will start early, let those freakishly long arms go and attempt to draw Litzau in...and there is a good chance he will succeed.
Litzau can hurt Caballero in there, but the odds are that he would have to take a good deal of punishment in order to do so. After some fun exchanges and two-way action, Litzau will not be able to get back to boxing. It wouldn't shock me to see The American Boy last the distance, but I think a stoppage for Caballero is a safer bet. A win via TKO in the 8th for Caballero is the call and don't look for his phone to start ringing anytime soon.
THE FIGHT: ANDRE BERTO VS. FREDDY HERNANDEZ
Welterweight has its fair share of potentially intriguing fights, and on the surface, this may not appear to be one, but Hernandez could be a bit of a problem.
Berto will look to use his flurry-and-hold style to avoid any of the heavy shots coming back at him, but Hernandez is resilient and can punch. Expect an early start for Berto, and while I don't necessarily think Hernandez has a whole lot for him, I cannot help but get the feeling that Berto will make this fight harder on himself than he needs to.
Somewhere in the middle of the fight, with Berto well ahead, his stamina will be the key factor. If he hasn't completely dented Hernandez or deterred him, the fight could get interesting as it wears on because Berto just does not take a shot well.
After some tense moments, and maybe even a round where Berto gets hurt, look for the HBO favorite to find a way to pull out of it and finish out for a clear unanimous decision win; something like 117111.
THE FIGHT: JUAN MANEUL MARQUEZ VS. MICHAEL KATSIDIS
This is the fight of the night, and maybe the fight of the year. At this point in time, neither man knows how to be in a boring fight because they both are willing to be hit in order to land.
For a couple of years now, I have sensed a decline in Juan Manuel Marquez. His skills are all there, his hand speed seems okay, but his legs are not as sturdy or springy as they once were. When your legs are starting to go on you, the last thing you want to see standing on the other side of the ring is a determined, active puncher who likes a fast pace.
Before the tragic passing of his brother, I actually was leaning toward a Katsidis upset in this one, but now I struggle to really pinpoint the effect of such a strategy on the underdog. Will he be a man possessed who is fighting in honor of his best friend and other half, or will he be a man who is wild and wears his heart on his sleeve as he opens himself up to the counterpunching future Hall of Famer? Typically, the answer lies somewhere in the middle
Katsidis will be a little more open and aggressive than he should, but he will also be more determined than he was before, which should make him ready to walk through anything.
I expect a cut or two in this one, and it will likely be on both men. I expect a knockdown or two here; one of which will likely be Katisidis early as Marquez catches him forgetting defense for a moment, but he will get up, he will be more determined and he will remember his new high guard defense.
Sustained action is the expectation here, and when Marquez gets hit, I expect the impact to be evident. Katsidis will work his way back from the knockdown and alternate between over aggression and controlled aggression, while Marquez has to labor more than he would like to keep pace. I will go with the upset in this one and take a marked up Michael Katsidis, who utilizes a mid-to-late rally to erase any point deficit and win a close, and hotly contested decision. My gut wants to say late stoppage, but Marquez is as savvy as they come
1 or 2 points will separate them in a split decision in a Fight of the Year candidate.
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